The Oil Drum | IEA's Resources To Reserves

18 comments on IEA's Resources To Reserves - Not to Worry!

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Dave Cohen on October 22, 2005 - 9:57pm

No one knows the overall depletion rate from existing oil production worldwide. I thought it was interesting that IEA and Skrebowski cited the same percentage. I think we are most confident about so-called "Type 3" depletion in which an entire country's total output starts to decline (eg. Mexico 2005).

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Heading Out on October 22, 2005 - 10:38pm

Unfortunately as we head to more technically advanced methods of recovery 5% becomes extremely optimistic - see the North Sea for example. I think, more than anything, this has me most concerned.

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Dave Cohen on October 22, 2005 - 11:46pm

This is the crux of the matter. You think that EOR will accelerate declines and IEA, CERA, et. al. think that recovery rates will increase as a result of applying new technologies. For deepwater, steep declines at the end of the life cycle of the fields are apparently the norm. Will that continue? For other fields, do we know? You have mentioned that you'll post on this, HO, and it's a good idea. This is a big issue and central to the Peak Oil situation and debate. I'd like to know more about it.

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Stuart Staniford on October 23, 2005 - 7:38am

I'm working on doing better at this by exhaustive tabulation of past projects (allowing me to calibrate against past production numbers), and better modeling of the production profile of the fields. However, since it's a big job it will take me a while (weeks). Especially if I get as distracted by economics as this last week.

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18 comments on IEA's Resources To Reserves - Not to Worry!

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