The Oil Drum | Is this the Economic stage of the Peak?

27 comments on Is this the Economic stage of the Peak?

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Dave Cohen on November 22, 2005 - 4:43pm

Oh, TI, I wouldn't worry about that Chinese production.

China will produce 180 mln tons of crude oil in 2005 and proven oil reserves continued to grow year on year, [director of the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce] Lu said.

And China Daily--which I regard as an official source if there ever was one--agrees that demand growth is falling

It is estimated that China will import 130 million tons of crude oil in 2005, rising only six percent year on year. This means the rate of growth of oil imports has dropped 30 percent, said Lu.

China imported 120 million tons of crude oil in 2004, accounting for 40 percent of its oil consumption.

And higher prices? Here's Lu again:

"Lu Jianhua, Director of Foreign Trade Department of the MOC, told the Asian Business Forum held recently, that it is unfair to blame China for rising international oil prices."

But really, China is feeling pinched. Check out the cited China Daily article.

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jkissing on November 22, 2005 - 11:09pm

I noticed earlier that this article has several inconsistencies, not least that 130/120 = 1.083. And, 8.3% is not that much less than their growth rate.

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TI on November 23, 2005 - 4:53am

Yes, BP statistics show an average 2% growth of the Chinese domestic oil production during the recent years. The share of domestic oil of consumption is falling anyway. The Chinese may try to curb the demand of oil, and they may be even successful in this, but the Chinese economic growth is so high that it makes the demand go up anyway.

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27 comments on Is this the Economic stage of the Peak?

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