I think that is a fair and reasonable presentation, Rudolf. The key aspect I got, and would emphasize: you cannot trust IEA (and similar organisations) predictions - you have responsibility to make your own assessments and justify them. The point about IEA predicting demand then inventing production to supply that is well appreciated here.

For governments to make correct decisions energy supply must be viewed as a risk analysis. It can be a wise insurance to diversify energy supply even if oil and gas prices drop (they won't). One can easily trash IEA oil price predictions by the fact: oil prices have increased by more than 30% in each of the last 3 years, they have probably predicted a static or fall in oil price every year.

Did you know China are building straw fired power stations?
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/login.php?red=art/2005/12/22/230197/Straw_power.htm
(it seems to be subscribers only now, and chargeable, it wasn't when I first accessed it)