"Cite on Simmons": no, I can't remember where I read it and can't Google it up right now - apologies. You're treating the Rembrandt analysis as though it's gold. There are massive uncertainties in any analysis of this kind (which is why there's so much controversy over them). To take a very minor example, Rembrandt assumes future UK oil depletion at 7% - not so

"Are you telling me Boone Pickens, who runs a billion dollar energy hedge fund, hasn't purchased the detailed data from CERA/IHS? And yet he's going on TV saying: ..."

"Very fishy. I'm telling you, Boone knows the CERA data, and the data Rembrandt put together. He knows oil isn't going to peak until 2012 at the earliest. It strains credulity to think otherwise."

I'm not sure what you're saying--are you implying that Pickens is speaking out this way to push up oil prices?  Or do you think he did it for some other reason?

Also, I'm not convinced Pickens has actually seen the CERA data, or if he has, why should we assume he believes it?  I think there's a good chance he's dismissed it in favor of other information, with or without actually seeing the CERA report.  He's been an oil man for a long time, and he's old enough tha he could very well be, shall we say, a little set in his ways.  

Please understand that I'm not being critical or argumentative here; my intent is solely to point out that we're all guessing about a lot of details, and when we start talking about the motivations of some highly visible people like Pickens, Simmons, Kunstler, or even each other, we're tap dancing on really thin ice.

 

Talisman Energy CEO (one of the larger independents, Canadian) Dr. Jim Buckee has a similar opinion. He's also on record as believing there are few, if any, big discoveries left to be made in the world as there is very little unknown to be explored in one form or another.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Page/document/v4/sub/MarketingPage?user_URL=http://www.theglo beandmail.com%2Fservlet%2FArticleNews%2FTPStory%2FLAC%2F20050504%2FRTICKERITEM04%2FTPBusiness%2F%3Fq uery%3Dtalisman&ord=1126284581974&brand=theglobeandmail&force_login=true

In seperate but related news Rising oil demand could severely strain the world's oil production and transportation systems late this year, predicts Jim Buckee, chief executive officer of Talisman Energy Inc.He suggested that projected demand of 86 million barrels of oil a day in the fourth quarter may not be met by enough supply.

During the Talisman annual meeting in Calgary, Mr. Buckee said conservation and energy efficiency was the "most important" way to reduce oil demand, adding that widespread use of alternatives to oil and natural gas was "extremely unlikely."