The Oil Drum | Rembrandt Koppelaar's Oil Peak

53 comments on Rembrandt Koppelaar's Oil Peak

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Stuart Staniford on September 10, 2005 - 8:33pm

If you like the ASPO curve, you need an explanation for why, given that Campbell has gotten the date of peak wrong so often before, he is going to be right this time. Also, the ASPO curve is based on a database that is not publicly accessible, so there is no way to replicate it or properly critique it.

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JD on September 10, 2005 - 9:52pm

What evidence makes you believe that ASPO is currently using any database? Earlier, you said ASPO was using the Petroconsultants DB, but Petroconsultants was acquired by IHS in 1996. Do you have any evidence to show that ASPO is currently purchasing information from IHS?

Even if ASPO is using a DB, there's something wrong with it. ASPO is currently predicting production of 82mbd for 2005 (see the Sept. 2005 newsletter at www.peakoil.ie), even though the DOE has production for the first six months of 2005 at 84.3mbd. The prediction is already wrong.

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Stuart Staniford on September 10, 2005 - 10:13pm

In Campbell's 1997 book "The Coming Oil Crisis" he details using the Petroconsultants database (along with a fulsome dedication to the PetroConsultants founder Harry Wassall). I speculate Campbell still had access as a favor, rather than paying after he was no longer with big companies. Also see Lynch's comments here, I do not know what ASPO is currently relying on - there is a rather content-free discussion here.

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53 comments on Rembrandt Koppelaar's Oil Peak

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