83 comments on A Look at the EIA Revision Pattern
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83 comments on A Look at the EIA Revision Pattern
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(and yes, reddit and digg (and metafilter and slashdot and fark and boing boing) work, they bring folks over here who never would have come otherwise...)
Just to stir the pot, a copy of what I posted on Reddit:
----------------------------
Excellent work, Khebab! Information is power, and the EIA wields inordinate power. Makes one wonder how much more accurate the CIA/NSA energy statistics are compared to the EIA's data.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
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Reporting a fluid in volumetric units is problematic. The volume for a given mass will vary with temperature, pressure and fluid density at standard pressure and temperature. If the density of the measured mass changes, then then the barrel volume changes with the density. Many countries report production / consumption in tons. The EIA assigns ton to barrel conversion factors for each country.
See
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilother.html
For Canada the ton to barrels conversion is 7.18, for Bolivia it is 7.881. The conversion factors have been periodically revised. What does this mean? Diffent API degrees? Wouldn't it be better to measure mass? Better yet, heating potential? Just what do these "barrel" measurements really tell us?
My point? Are revisions of 0.2 mmbbl/day noise in the error band or a significant revision?