It seems to me that the peak could be caused by a voluntary reduction (plus other factors). Then when the time of the ramp up comes, the production increases, but it does not ever again exceed the peak caused by a multitude of factors (including geological).

I guess what I am trying to say, is that I believe the peak will be (or has been) reached and caused by a multitude of causes, with the geology just being one of the causes.

Rick

Good explanation.  Thats always been my point about the difference between "geological" or true peak, and "logistical" or peak caused by logistical factors such as lack of manpower, lack of machinery, political instability, lack of investment capital, lack of demand, etc, etc.  Logistical peak can be recovered from, as in the 1980's.  But "true geological peak" can never be.

Westexas makes the great case of this in regards to Texas and lower 48 U.S.

There was no war, the technical talant was as good as anywhere in the world, there was plenty of money, and there was the best machinery in the history of the industry....but when Texas went into it's "geological" decline, no amount of money, no amount of effort and no amount of drilling could reverse it.
When that happens, EVERY OTHER FACTOR becomes moot.  That is the question we are all asking:  How close is the world to that point?  Because once it happens, looking for alternatives, and restructuring consumption downward has got to happen FAST.  If the U.S. peak was any indication, we will get no advance warning, and the price signal will tell us nothing.  American oil was as cheap as it had ever been (inflation adjusted) at the time of the U.S. peak, and everyone was living large.  Only months later, we were over the top and starting the long, long decline.  

Right now, if you factor in inflation, oil is still relatively cheap (taking a price between $58 and $62 per barrel) when compared to inflation on everything else since the early 1980's.  

Even the optimists know this:  Light sweet liquid crude, and that prestine natural gas are one shot deals.  We may be able to find alternatives, synfuels, etc., but the time of pulling this miracle elixer out of the ground and out of the ocean floor can only happen for us once on this Earth.  That first time was a "freebie" in a way.  All the rest we will have to design ourselves, at great cost and effort.  If we are too lazy to get off our lazy arses and start now, we will have only ourselves to blame for using up the last of a miracle of nature as great as natural water or the giant tropical forests, there will be no "store" to run to and buy what is the only GEM of nature and God of the likes of this planet ...there will be no putting the toothpaste back in the tube.

Forgive us, we do take it so for granted don't we?

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Resolved:   World Net Oil Export Capacity is Now Declining Because of Involuntary Reductions in Production and/or Because of Increases in Domestic Consumption in Major Oil Exporting Countries

A Guest Post by Westexas (Jeffrey J. Brown)

Background
Robert Rapier suggested that we debate this topic, and I agreed.   In reality, there are only shades of gray difference between us regarding the timing of Peak Oil and Peak Exports.  I believe that the crisis has hit, while Robert believes that the worst won't be upon us until some time shortly after 2010.

In any case, in a guest post on The Oil Drum (TOD) in January 2006 http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832, I predicted, based on graphs primarily done by "Khebab," who is now a TOD Contributor, that the world would see declining net oil exports this year.  

I focused on the top three net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia (KSA); Russia and Norway--which together accounted for 48% of the (total liquids) exports by the top net oil exporters in 2004 (all production data based on EIA numbers, unless noted otherwise).  Top exporters are defined as those exporting one mbpd or more.

In his most recent book, "Beyond Oil:  The View from Hubbert's Peak," Kenneth Deffeyes outlined a simplified version of the mathematical techniques that M. King Hubbert used to accurately pick the time frame for the peak of Lower 48 oil production.  The method, named "Hubbert Linearization" (HL) by Stuart Staniford on TOD, is outlined in the following article "Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world." http://www.energybulletin.net/16459.html

Deffeyes defines Qt as a mathematical estimate of the ultimate recoverable reserves for a region.     Regions tend to peak, and start declining when they are about 50% depleted, i.e., the 50% of Qt mark.  

The following regions have now shown lower production after crossing the 50% of Qt mark:  Texas; Lower 48; Total US (which had a secondary, but still lower peak, after the North Slope production came on line); Russia; North Sea; KSA and Mexico.  

In the January article, I outlined my "Export Land" model, which was inspired by work done earlier by Matt Simmons.  I stipulated that we had a country producing 20 mbpd and consuming 10 mbpd.  

I then stipulated Export Land hits the 50% of Qt mark, and over a five year period, production declines by 25% and consumption increases by 20%.  Because of these two factors--falling production and rising domestic consumption--the net oil exports from out hypothetical exporter decline by 70%, from 10 mbpd to 3 mbpd.  

Note that the underlying assumption, which I think is generally true, is domestic demand is generally satisfied before oil is exported.  We have a real life example of the Export Land model in the UK, which has gone from exporting one mbpd in 1999 to being a net importer in 2005.  

Also note that I expect domestic consumption in the exporting countries to go up quite rapidly, at least initially, as oil prices rise faster than their production is falling.

What I found deeply troubling in January was that the top three net oil exporters were all past their respective 50% of Qt marks.   In January, KSA was showing stable production, Russia was showing a slow rate of growth and Norway was in decline.  I predicted, based on the HL method and based on the Export Land model, that we would see lower exports from these three countries in 2006.