But there is something you have to realise, economic impact is felt as soon as demand shots up above suply. So when you're on a plateau you're not coping with demand and prices will rise, like now. The moment production will decline prices will already be higher, they will just climb faster.

My best guess (using that 8% decline for major oil fields) is that during 2007 Saudi Arabi and FSU won't be able to fill the gap to the decline in the rest of the World - and that's it.

If Iran cuts production, or if like prof. Bahktiari says the decline rates are much higher than what we might think a decline will probaly be felt still this year.

And demand is projected to go beyond 87 MBD by the end of the year...

I don't pretend to guess at the economics, but here's one thought on renewables. If we're getting both Peak Oil, and Global Climate Change at the same time, then I'd say we ought to prepare for some more great (ie, REALLY great, TOO great) opportunities in wind energy.  Of course, weather events 'might' be heavier, but would almost certainly be less predictable, too.  You'd need equipment that could protect itself during excessive conditions.

There's a Finnish site www.windside.com with a Vertical-Axis windmill that seems to be better suited for really heavy weather..

 The wind crowd seems down on Verticals for their efficiency, but if you get cheaper engineering (lower towers, reduced Gyroscopic stresses) and more durability, the numbers might be better.  Also takes better advantage of smaller winds and quick directional changes, as it doesn't lose time aiming into a new source..

(And did Bush really say Nuclear was a Renewable today?  Maybe it was a replay of an older speech, but I don't know if that is funnier than their calling it 'Clean'.. the fuel-waste that can poison us for more millenia than we've had agriculture)

That is not so obvious. You need at least 4-5 years of flat or declining production to confirm Peak Oil is here.

>how long the world will be able to maintain the bumpy plateau of peak production?

IMO many many many years. The consequences will be 1) permanent process of reallocation of leftover oil resources: less on individual transportation, more on mass transit and chemical production 2) more oil substitutes will come 3)  more technical inventions in auto industry etc. (you name it)
In sum: new stage of technological revolution.

I joked in other thread about removal of Dutch guys to Antarctica after Holland will be drowned. Don't take offence. I like Dutch guys :)  

Andrei, 3500 km to Moscow.