<The view from OPEC The Oil Drum Thurs open thread>

112 comments on Another picture that tells a story

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westexas on April 20, 2006 - 9:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Total product inventories are down very slightly year over year.  More importantly, the overall trend is down.  

The Energy Bulletin just published an article I did, which I based on the previous technical work that Khebab did.

When I analyzed Khebab's HL data earlier this year, it seemed to me that a sharp decline in net export capacity was a mathematical certainty.

Energy Bulletin article:

http://energybulletin.net/15126.html

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Leanan on April 20, 2006 - 9:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
By coincidence, I just posted your article to the front page of PeakOil.com.  :)
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Donal on April 20, 2006 - 10:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I shortened/rewrote it and sent it out to my coworkers and everyone else I thought might pay attention.

Oil and gasoline prices are up substantially since mid-February. In some markets, gas pump prices have increased twenty cents in a day! Most media pundits and financial "experts" attribute this run up in oil prices to geopolitical tensions - Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, etc.

But look at the facts:  

Since the week ending 2/10/06, average daily US net petroleum imports have fallen about 15%, down about two million barrels per day. Since the week ending 2/24/06, on a smoothed, four week running average basis, average daily US net petroleum imports have fallen about 8%, down about one million barrels per day. (A comparable time period last year showed about a 2% decline.)

Prices began rising at about the same time that we began importing less oil and gasoline.

Why are we importing less?  Even though every country is demanding more oil, worldwide oil production has hit a plateau.  Behind all the headlines, oil importers are simply bidding against each other for less and less available total petroleum (crude oil + product) imports.

Everyone is jockeying for fossil fuels.  We're occupying oil-rich Iraq, we're rattling sabers at oil-rich Iran and Venezuela (aka Citgo) and Condi Rice is buddying up to the brutal dictator of Equatorial Guineau, Africa's third-largest oil exporter.  China's economy is growing twice as fast as ours, and they are playing hard to lock in long-term contracts for oil and natural gas.  Russia still has a lot of oil and natural gas, and Putin is using both as a negotiating tool with China and Europe. Now that their North Sea oil fields are almost tapped out, the UK is casting about for new sources.  

In my opinion, higher oil prices are causing the international tensions, not the other way around.  If oil production increases, we may see gasoline prices again stabilize at less than they are, but higher than they were.  If oil production stagnates or declines, gasoline will just keep heading up.

One guy wrote back, "For some reason, I keep seeing the "Mad Max" movies in my head when you talk about this stuff....."

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Ben on April 20, 2006 - 11:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I like this.  It isn't too technical that it will lose folks.

The prevailing attitude here?  Something's gotta give.  But when somebody says this, and I question them, the "something" they are talking about is gas prices, not their own driving.  Funny, that.

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djquirk3 on April 20, 2006 - 9:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Agreed. Oil prices go up and discretionary consumer spending goes down. Perhaps no new HDTV? But supply and demand dictates(simple mass balance here) that oil demand must be cut. But where? I'd bet on recreational travel. Perhaps shorting some stock here would make sense. Airlines? RV manufactures?
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Atticman on April 20, 2006 - 10:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
To Ben:
      All Americans have had their balls(or ovaries)in a sling since the overthrow of coomon sense in the 1980 epoch.Our secret powers that be infused foreign oil(mideast)into our economy and made it most acceptable with a lot of PR.But I don't forget the foreign policy that murdered millions of Iraqi and Irani men ,women and children in that 10 year war,which was then capped off by Gulf War 1 or the 1st Battle Armageddon.In Viet Nam there was blood in the mud,then it was blood in the oil.Point is since Kennedy and Eisenhower our lust has been unmatched on the world stage.Our people are lost.Common Sense is hard to find and not often spoken of(by our leaders).It is most obvious that consumption is fostered by our elite and conservation is nasty dumb crap.In all things.The conspiracies are unbelieveable because they are so odd,or unthought of. Massive interlinked think tanks do our planning and have no relation to everyman's dreams.
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liaozhi123 on April 27, 2006 - 3:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't agree with you!
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nrgyman2000 on April 20, 2006 - 11:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
HELLO,

The Norwegian blogspot http://energikrise.blogspot.com/ has a colurful graph showing how net oil exports (believed to be all liquids) has developed for countries and regions based upon BP Statistical Review 2005 for the years 1985 through 2004.

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westexas on April 20, 2006 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
An earlier version of the article, with more numbers, was published at:  http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/
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112 comments on Another picture that tells a story

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