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44 comments on More Sustainlane: U.S. Cities' Preparedness for an Oil Crisis

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Stuart Staniford on April 4, 2006 - 1:56am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
The index has a slight smell of being biassed to look at sprawl/new-urbanism type issues, which while significant, are not the only thing going on.  Eg, Detroit (#34) is going to get extra screwed because it's main industry is building gas-guzzling vehicles and is already faring badly with high gas prices.  OTOH, San Jose, which is #33 on the index because it's very sprawling, is likely to do ok because the median income is so high - Porsche drivers will still be able to afford gas when it's $10/gallon - and demand for San Jose's core competence (technology products) is likely to hold up reasonably well in a post-peak economy.
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TJ on April 4, 2006 - 9:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Not sure technology products demand will hold up.  Even if they do, most are actually manufactured overseas now.  How much U.S. marketing will be required when most of the population can only afford Walmart?
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MillMan on April 4, 2006 - 9:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There are still a large number of semiconductor fabs in the US. Semiconductor packaging operations, however, are indeed exclusively in southeast Asia today. Manufacturing is only part of it anyway - there are still very large numbers of the engineers in the US designing the parts even if they are being manufactured elsewhere.
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odograph on April 4, 2006 - 10:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
How many pounds did a 70's era HiFi weigh?  How many ounces does an iPod weigh?

The Asian trade route has been pushing miniaturization for decades, just because cost has been determined in part by how many units you can stick in a shipping container.

... this is not the only story as transportation prices get higher, but it is certainly one of the stories ....

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Stuart Staniford on April 4, 2006 - 2:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You're correct that product manufacturing is mostly Asian, but design is still mostly in Silicon Valley.  IMO (I work in this industry) that's likely to stay true.  
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jokuhl on April 4, 2006 - 4:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
National Semiconductor is still one of (South)Portland, Maine's link to the Northeast's bid for Tech mfg.  Don't know what gets produced here.

I don't think tech demand will go down. Ability to MEET that demand might, though. (Don't forget credit.. cause the consumer won't, and demand for that will be WAY up..)  It will be tech solutions that will allow a consumer to find more Energy-Saving solutions to rising rates.  Microwave Ovens, (the most energy efficient way to heat food, next to Solar) Laptops and other low-power computing and entertainment solutions, like the above-mentioned Ipods.. phones, radios, LED and CF lighting.. Inverters and charge controllers, electric transp.

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TJ on April 4, 2006 - 5:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If we'e talking about conditions bad enough that local food production is an advantage then we're talking about a recession that will eliminate tech demand.  Nobody's going to be designing new chips or cell phones for multibillion fab shops that will never get built, because business investment will go to zero.  Consumer spending will consist of average people trying to keep up with 10-15% energy inflation costs every year.

I mean, in this case we're talking about remotely grown food being too expensive for the average person but computer sales are going to stay strong?

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jokuhl on April 4, 2006 - 9:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This isn't to confuse the latest dingle from Sharper Image with the useful technology that is more or less ubiquitous in our lives these days.  There are semiconductors involved in items all through our lives now, and we will continue to use and demand them, because they do work in ways that basically nothing else will.  The basic idea of a Transistor is simply an energy management tool.  It's a valve, a switch, a floodgate that can, with VERY little power applied to it, manage a much greater source of electrical power, making very smart and efficient use of a limited amount of electricity as required.  So I would argue that these will continue to be tools that we keep in our kits, keep manufacturing, keep finding new uses for, probably mostly BECAUSE our needs have become more stringent.  Depending on how 'Mad Max' things are to become here and there, the mass of circuit-boards that languish in landfills and basements might become the new 'Spanish Galleons' that treasure hunters will scrounge out for their precious components, but this range of tools, from electronics to materials sciences is what we have instead of claws and fangs for survival, and we won't let go of them lightly, just because we also have some sod under our fingernails.  

 Our Farming won't be some PBS special on "Colonial House", either.  We're not just jumping back to 1613 and tossing out Radios, Electric Motors and Generators, Fiberglass, Pneumatics, Chemistry, Flight, Calculators... or Literacy..

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odograph on April 4, 2006 - 10:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That's a good note, on the nature of some cities economies.

But even if they were to get those things right, they are of course generalizations across entire cities ;-).  There are walkable neighborhoods in each, I'm sure.  And there are some jobs that will be better to have than others, in each city.

Case in point ... in the 70's fuel crisis and aerospace crash there were lots of lay-offs in California.  My family was insulated from that because my dad worked for LA city schools.  Nothing like a steady government job in economic upheaval.

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AlphaMaleProphetOfDoom on April 4, 2006 - 2:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Exactly.

As somebody else posted, the study is very shallow. Oakland, Ca. prepared for Peak Oil? Oakland has BART, which I absolutely love but they also have MAJOR as in MAJOR gang problems that are spreading into the working class and middle class parts of town. There are big timeproblems with the police, just google "oakland riders trial, and now there areAK-47 attacks taking place in the "nice" areas of town. I could go on but you get the point: parts are already slipping into "Mad Max" and things haven't gotten bad yet.

Also, please note: I lived in the heart of one of the worst parts of San Francisoc (the Tenderloin) and worked a the Public Defenders office so it's not like I'm some wilting flower afraid of poor people or some closeted racist afraid of other races.

Best,

Matt

 

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AlphaMaleProphetOfDoom on April 4, 2006 - 2:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Just to be clear, yes I did say "AK-47" attacks:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/03/22/BAG33HS4EJ1.DTL

Best,

Matt

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44 comments on More Sustainlane: U.S. Cities' Preparedness for an Oil Crisis

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