<Of gas and biofuels The Oil Drum Who has to conserve how much?>

71 comments on Friday Open Thread

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

fallout on May 5, 2006 - 3:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Looks like the Phoenix housing market is starting to tank, just like Bob in Phoenix and Kunstler predicted.

"All buyers, not just investors, pull back"

"Speculators supposedly have fled metropolitan Phoenix's housing market, so it's no surprise that home sales have dropped as that demand has dried up.

What is surprising is that home sales and building are down more than the rate at which investors were buying last year. New-home building permits were down 16 percent for the first three months compared with a year ago, reports real estate analyst RL Brown. Resales plummeted 34 percent during the first quarter, according to the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University."
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0430biz-catherine0430.html

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
fleam on May 5, 2006 - 3:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Phoenix never did make sense as a place to live for a normal person with a clean criminal record. I lived out there for a few years, yuk.

Only a manic bubble mentality could explain all the new building out there, the place is a real um, heckhole.

Dusty, hot, miserable, sprawly, just an awful place. You're running your heat or your AC all year, there are about 3 nice days when you need neither a year. I've seen it down in the 20s in the AM and up in the 90s in the sun later that same day.

Now, I said normal people. It does not make sense for them. I've met, or re-met, a few who moved out to CA about the same time I moved back to CA. They consistantly found that although rents are higher in cali, the increased pay makes up for it. One waitress told me, it's like getting free rent plus nice weather when she did the numbers and compared the two.

The two demographics that make sense in AZ are the retire-and-rot crowd, and criminals. When Three Strikes was enacted in California, over 100 thousand criminals skedaddled for AZ. Prison is such a big part of the economy and culture there that radio stations often broadcast what the day's prison meals are. Going to visit kin in the pen is as much a part of AZ culture as sittin' on the freeway is a part of CA culture. Although AZ actually has far worse traffic jams and aggro drivers.

I think AZ is the textbook example of what Kunstler is talking about.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
The Interloafer on May 5, 2006 - 3:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
But ... but ... but David Brooks says that the Phoenix exurbs are going to be the housing of the future:
Buckeye, Ariz. - Head west from downtown Phoenix past acres of postwar sprawl, go up over the White Tank Mountains, and there spread out before you is the future. There before you is a barren desert floor. Right now it's nothing but scrub, tire tracks and desert washes, but this land has been bought by developers, and groundbreaking is just around the corner. By 2025, a million people will be living in this now-empty space. When you are out here, you can feel America's growth.
Really, a groundbreaking is just around the corner.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
fallout on May 5, 2006 - 3:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Haha....yeah, right.  And I have some lovely beachfront property to sell you.

Looks like it's more than just Phoenix, too.

"Doors Close for Real Estate Speculators
After Pushing Up Prices, Investors Are Left Holding Too Many Homes"

By Kirstin Downey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, April 22, 2006; Page A01

Investors who sought quick profits buying and selling real estate in the Washington region are in full retreat, dampening demand for homes, most notably for condos."

*

"While condominiums were the product of choice for investors, luxury neighborhoods also fell prey to real estate speculation, leading to the prospect of price drops even in affluent subdivisions."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/21/AR2006042101720.html

I hear air leaking.....

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
shepseskaf on May 5, 2006 - 5:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Looks like luxury home sales are headed south as well...

USA Today:
Home contracts dive 29% at Toll Brothers

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Toll Brothers (TOL), a leading builder of luxury homes, said Friday that its signed contracts fell 29% in its second fiscal quarter, and it cut its forecast for the number of homes it expects to sell in fiscal 2006.

For the three months ended April 30, Toll projected preliminary contracts of roughly $1.56 billion, down from $2.2 billion in the year-ago period. Backlog for the quarter rose 3% to roughly $6.07 billion.

Article link
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on May 5, 2006 - 9:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't like to make this kind of comment usually but David Brooks has his head so far up his ass that he has not seen the sun shine in years.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Reed on May 6, 2006 - 3:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
No shit.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
PaulS on May 5, 2006 - 5:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
They told me:
(1) "You don't have to shovel the heat"
(2) "It's a dry heat."
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Halfin on May 5, 2006 - 8:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My parents moved to Midland, Texas in 1974. It's a big oil producing area - my dad was in the oil business, that's why they moved there - and after the oil shocks of the 1970s they had an incredible economic boom. New construction, new housing was going up all over town, the city itself was spreading out across the flat west Texas plains like a growing amoeba.

And then the bust came in the early 80s, when oil prices collapsed. All of a sudden those condos were not selling at all. Midland was surrounded by a ring that was a veritable ghost town, construction which had begun during the boom days and was now a white elephant. It took decades before that glut of housing was finally used up and the city returned to a semblance of normalcy.

The lesson is the economic booms and busts happen all the time, and what is (or may be) happening today in Phoenix has been repeated many times before.

And incidentally, Midland is a crappy place to live, too, in my opinion - freezing winters and boiling summers. At least, compared to where I live in coastal California, it's very unpleasant there in west Texas. Phoenix is even worse.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
The Big Texan on May 5, 2006 - 11:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I grew up in Pampa, TX, and my parents took the family to Mass at St. Vincent de Paul's Catholic Church.  St. Vincent's is a large, almost cathredal sized church.  One time, I asked my dad why such a big church was built in such a small town.  He said during the oil boom, people assumed Pampa would grow into a major boom town.  I think the population is now well under 20,000 people.  It's still a nice town, though.  I remember I could ride my bike from one end of the town to the other with no problems.  And because of the chemical plants outside of town, the town population has a larger percentage of educated people than is typical for a small Texas panhandle town, and it is diverse also, since the chemical plants recruit employees from all over the world.  Sometimes I think about quitting the law firm I manage and opening a solo practice there, so my kids can grow up there.  
Comments can no longer be added to this story.

71 comments on Friday Open Thread

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version