Phoenix never did make sense as a place to live for a normal person with a clean criminal record. I lived out there for a few years, yuk.

Only a manic bubble mentality could explain all the new building out there, the place is a real um, heckhole.

Dusty, hot, miserable, sprawly, just an awful place. You're running your heat or your AC all year, there are about 3 nice days when you need neither a year. I've seen it down in the 20s in the AM and up in the 90s in the sun later that same day.

Now, I said normal people. It does not make sense for them. I've met, or re-met, a few who moved out to CA about the same time I moved back to CA. They consistantly found that although rents are higher in cali, the increased pay makes up for it. One waitress told me, it's like getting free rent plus nice weather when she did the numbers and compared the two.

The two demographics that make sense in AZ are the retire-and-rot crowd, and criminals. When Three Strikes was enacted in California, over 100 thousand criminals skedaddled for AZ. Prison is such a big part of the economy and culture there that radio stations often broadcast what the day's prison meals are. Going to visit kin in the pen is as much a part of AZ culture as sittin' on the freeway is a part of CA culture. Although AZ actually has far worse traffic jams and aggro drivers.

I think AZ is the textbook example of what Kunstler is talking about.

But ... but ... but David Brooks says that the Phoenix exurbs are going to be the housing of the future:
Buckeye, Ariz. - Head west from downtown Phoenix past acres of postwar sprawl, go up over the White Tank Mountains, and there spread out before you is the future. There before you is a barren desert floor. Right now it's nothing but scrub, tire tracks and desert washes, but this land has been bought by developers, and groundbreaking is just around the corner. By 2025, a million people will be living in this now-empty space. When you are out here, you can feel America's growth.
Really, a groundbreaking is just around the corner.
Haha....yeah, right.  And I have some lovely beachfront property to sell you.

Looks like it's more than just Phoenix, too.

"Doors Close for Real Estate Speculators
After Pushing Up Prices, Investors Are Left Holding Too Many Homes"

By Kirstin Downey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, April 22, 2006; Page A01

Investors who sought quick profits buying and selling real estate in the Washington region are in full retreat, dampening demand for homes, most notably for condos."

*

"While condominiums were the product of choice for investors, luxury neighborhoods also fell prey to real estate speculation, leading to the prospect of price drops even in affluent subdivisions."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/21/AR2006042101720.html

I hear air leaking.....

Looks like luxury home sales are headed south as well...

USA Today:
Home contracts dive 29% at Toll Brothers

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Toll Brothers (TOL), a leading builder of luxury homes, said Friday that its signed contracts fell 29% in its second fiscal quarter, and it cut its forecast for the number of homes it expects to sell in fiscal 2006.

For the three months ended April 30, Toll projected preliminary contracts of roughly $1.56 billion, down from $2.2 billion in the year-ago period. Backlog for the quarter rose 3% to roughly $6.07 billion.

Article link
I don't like to make this kind of comment usually but David Brooks has his head so far up his ass that he has not seen the sun shine in years.
No shit.