Yep, that is the big question: what is the best way to help those that have economically fallen off the bottom rung of the detritus ladder?  Bereft Indian farmers self-ingesting pesticide, newborns being found dead in the Zimbabwe sewers, the crisis in Sudan, people freezing from lack of natgas heat...on and on until the mind reels.  Yet, detritus entropy dictates that this will only get worse with the passage of time.  The 'trickle down' theory doesn't apply to energy as it can only be burned once.

When the US welfare and Social Security system collapses: how will we treat our elderly, sick, and disabled?  The recent EnergyBulletin article talks about the possible future difficulty in replacing a worn-out water heater--How about the decision of choosing between feeding Grandpa or feeding your child?  Will it be wiser to spend your money on family health insurance vs. spending it on heating oil when it is bitterly cold outside?  What percentage of Americans will take in another family that cannot afford their own housing and the energy to run it?  How willing are we to decrease from using 25% of the world's oil to the world average?  Isn't that inherently fair?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Or is the plateau model one that leads to a cliff?

Also, sometime would you update the above 9-month center moving average graph.

Your work and wisdom is much appreciated. Your hard data balances off a lot of the doomers' speculation.    

Internal political pressure for subsidization from countries that do NOT subsidize must grow as price pressures hit home to producing countries. As an example see: Bolivia. This is the equivalent of bread and circuses for the Romans.

Do you really believe that Norwegian and Canadian governments would be able to stay in power as the squeeze for their energy sources becomes more intense while at the same time they maintain an equivalency between foriegn and domestic consumers?

 I see Venezuela using it's reserves for political diplomacy, SA keeping the blooming youth population at bay, Nigeria in civil/piracy war. When the benefits are not seen locally chaos reigns. The fungibility of energy MUST lessen as supplies grow tighter and costs increase simply because the local politics are what controls the well heads.

Yes, there will be black markets, wars, trade 'agreements' but it all just adds up to making the energy just a little bit harder to get, a little more expensive as each producer must use more and more of it's resource to assuage the pain at home in order to not be replaced by a more inward looking regime.

Westexas is more on target than even he dreams.

Gary

According to Societe Generale, a major French bank, the spike in chinese oil consumption in 2004 and less so in 2005 was due to running thousands of extra diesel generators to meet zooming electricity demand. As China rushes to complete 500+ coal-fired power stations before the decade is over, such demand will certainly diminish and eventually reverse.

Also, is it correct that oil consumption increased in 2005 in China?  Article from "People's Daily":

http://english.people.com.cn/200602/03/eng20060203_239901.html

excerpt:

"China's oil consumption and dependence on imports decreased last year as a result of the government's energy-saving efforts. The National Development and Reform Commission said recently that China's dependence on oil imports was 42.9 per cent in 2005, 2.2 percentage points lower than in 2004. It also said China consumed 318 million tons of oil last year, 1.08 million tons less than in 2004....."

Adult Diaper Sales Soar in China

Alongside food and fire crackers, Chinese are adding a new item to their lunar New Year shopping: Adult diapers. Sales have soared ahead of the holiday as travelers prepare for long trips home aboard trains so crowded that even the toilets are jammed with people, newspapers said Tuesday.

In Foshan, a southern industrial city with a large migrant population, supermarkets report diaper sales have risen 50 percent since the main travel season began on Jan. 14, the papers said.

The problem arises from the need to sell twice as many tickets as there are train seats to accommodate the crush of travelers. Those without seats must find some place -- any place -- to put themselves, including in overhead racks, between cars, and in the usually stinking toilets.

Just purchasing a ticket can mean lining up for hours.

China Daily reports that some passengers have mental breakdowns from the conditions on the trains, and throw themselves from the cars.

The plan envisages (i) building 6,000 km of new lines to access
previously unserved areas, with the network reaching 74,000 km; (ii) providing 3,000 km of
double lines, and electrifying 5,000 km of key lines to increase capacity; and (iii) increasing
operating speeds on 5,000 km, with the total length of such lines reaching 15,000 km.

While it is true that there are large investments in the Highway system

Also, China is building a superhighway system, "which is where the bulk of the world's concrete is going today," says Schwartz. China, by one estimate, is now putting $40 billion a year into road construction. At the same time, China is overhauling its rail system, building separate lines for freight and passenger traffic.

In some cities they are introducing Rapid Buses with dedicated lanes, while encouraging smaller car use as...
... private cars in China nearly tripled between 2000 and 2005, from 6.25 million to 17 million. These vehicles now account for one-third of all oil imports. High vehicle fuel consumption has also contributed to the nation's oil shortage, with Chinese models manufactured before 2001 guzzling 20-30 (?) more fuel than their foreign counterparts.

66% of cars have a capacity less then 1.6 L and recently a consumption tax of 20% has been applied to large capacity (ie over 4 L) cars.

Not saying it's rosy, but... what's happening where you are?