I think a lot is going to depend upon one's historical perspective.  I'm 67 so my view of reality goes back to the 1920's via my parent's statments to today, close to 90 years in total.  Younger people today do not recognize how society has changed.

I think they will not be as angry as you expect, although they might become more radical, but rather simply say, "screw it all."  In other words, do as little as possible in order to get by since there will be little chance for success.  It is likely the lessor educated will keep on making babies while the more educated will have fewer children.

I do see a major shift in education from the sciences toward service stuff like medicine, etc.  Were I starting college today, I'd never major in chemistry as I did in the 1950's.  In fact, having gained some wisdom about my likes and dislikes, I'd go to an Ag school and major in soil science...or, maybe, take the tuition money and become a speciality farmer.

BTW, my wife and I are one of the few non-parents from my generation.  Kids didn't fit in with our lifestyle or personalities.

This from a posting on another blog. Just 100 years.

"Here are some of the U.S. statistics for the Year 1906 :
The average life expectancy in the U.S. was 47 years.

Only 14 percent of the homes in the U.S. had a bathtub.

Only 8 percent of the homes had a telephone. A three-minute call from Denver to New York City cost $11.

There were only 8,000 automobiles in the U.S., and only 144 miles of paved roads.The maximum speed limit in most cities was 10 mph.

Alabama, Mississippi, Iowa, and Tennessee were each more heavily populated than California.With a mere 1.4 million people, California was only the 21st
most populous state in the Union.

The tallest structure in the world was the Eiffel Tower.

The average wage in the U.S. was 22 cents per hour. The average U.S. worker made between $200 and $400 per year. A competent accountant could expect to earn $2,000 per year,
a dentist $2,500 per year, a veterinarian between $1,500 and $4,000 per year, and a mechanical engineer about $5,000 per year. More than 95 percent of all births in the U.S. took place at home. Ninety percent of all U.S. doctors had NO COLLEGE EDUCATION! Instead, they attended so-called medical schools, many of which were condemned in the press and the government as "substandard."

Sugar cost four cents a pound. Eggs were fourteen cents a dozen. Coffee was fifteen cents a pound. Most women only washed their hair once a month, and used Borax or egg yolks for shampoo. Canada passed a law that prohibited poor people from entering into their country for any reason. The five leading causes of death in the U.S. were:

  1. Pneumonia and influenza
  2. Tuberculosis
  3. Diarrhea
  4. Heart disease
  5. Stroke

The American flag had 45 stars. Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Alaska hadn't yet been admitted to the Union. The population of Las Vegas, Nevada, was only 30.

Crossword puzzles, canned beer, and ice tea hadn't been invented yet. There was no Mother's Day or Father's Day. Two out of every 10 U.S. adults couldn't read or write.

Only 6 percent of all Americans had graduated from high school. Eighteen percent of households in the U.S. had at least one full-time servant or domestic help.

For the year, there were about 230 reported murders in the entire country."

Thanks for putting things in perspective.  I am not trying to say that things were better back then, but we should keep in mind that our happiness level hasn't kept pace with our affluence level.  I do like the part about 10 mph speed limit, though.

We should also keep in mind that the marginal income tax rate for the rich during the Eisenhower years was 91%.  We have a long way to go before we are "overtaxed".  

The boomers were and are supporting their parents and supported their children. I would hate to think they will be jettisoned when times get a bit tough.  We will all sink or swim together.

It is mostly our greed,materialism, need for comfort and "convenience" that has gotten us into this mess. The only way we can get out of this mess is to relearn the lessons of frugality.  It also wouldn't hurt if we cut back on our population.  If the new college graduates choose not to have children, I say great.  Thus far, I have just one grandchild and I would be happy to keep it that way.  

avalon -

Yes, it is indeed interesting to contemplate all the things that weren't here 100 years ago.

To put a bit of political and societal spin on this exercise, here are a few of my own, in no particular order:

  • No Department of Homeland Security

  • No FBI

  • No CIA

  • No War on Drugs

  • No police SWAT teams

  • No for-profit prisons

  • No surveillance cameras in public places

  • No IRS ( no income tax)

  • No War on Terrorism

  • No (almost) Federal involvement in local law enforcement

  • No government data bases on private citizens

  • No wire tapping, data mining

  • No Total Information Awareness program

  • No AIDS

  • No military-industrial complex and no massive 'defense' budget

  • No powerful Israeli lobby unduly influencing US foreign policy (no Israel)

  • No imported oil and all the problems thereof

  • No SUVs, cell phones, iPods, rap music, etc

I could go on and on, but I think you see my point -
we have gained much but we have also lost much.
You overlooked population.There was 200 million
fewer of us a hundred years ago.
No civil rights existed then either. Women and minorities were second class in many regions.  You give up your philosopy easily.  All the negatives you state above pale in comparison to a lynch mob       ing a black man in the deep south or the child who dies of polio.

No Department of Homeland Security
   Do we not need this?
No FBI
   100 years ago a       er could flee unpursued across state lines

No CIA
   We had spies since the revolutionary war
No War on      
    see above
No police SWAT teams
    Special Weapons and Tactics to deal with heavily armed criminals.
No for-profit prisons
    Everything id profit don't kid yourself.
No surveillance cameras in public places
    Why is this bad? If you are not commiting a crime what does it matter?  Integrity is doing the right thing when nobody is looking.  Since so many have none this insures someone is looking.
No IRS ( no income tax)
    I don't like taxes either.
No War on       ism
    Chicken or egg?
No (almost) Federal involvement in local law enforcement
   As southern sherrifs turned blind eyes and attended clan meetings
No government data bases on private citizens
    No computers
No wire tapping, data mining
  ""
No Total Information Awareness program
   ""
No AIDS
   No aliens in roswell either
No military-industrial complex and no massive 'defense' budget

No powerful Israeli lobby unduly influencing US foreign policy (no Israel)

No imported oil and all the problems thereof

No SUVs, cell phones, iPods, rap music

I blame rap

At least one statistic of that blog posting is innacurate. There were 1310 homicides in that year, not 230 (Source: Historical Statistics of the United States). The rate, of course, was still much lower than today's.
Mech Engr made $170,000/yr in 2006 dollars
Coffee cost    $5/pound
If fertility is negatively correlated with education, then we'd better hope that education and intelligence are not positively correlated, because that would mean IQ dysgenesis. It's fortunate that, in any case, race has nothing to do with intelligence, because that would have all sorts of implications, some of them unpleasant or impolite. Gosh, I feel much better now. Thanks, oildrum!
>Younger people today do not recognize how society has changed.

That is a bit of an understatement. While I am much younger than you I still can easily see how far society is changing, and to me the changes are accelerating in the wrong direction.

>I do see a major shift in education from the sciences toward service stuff like medicine, etc.

I see it shifting away from the sciences entirely and into liberal arts and away from education that would provide them real job opportunities. A few years ago there were several articles about how the high school curriculum was simplified so its easy to obtain a A or B average with virtually no academic effort. When these kids reach college they are unprepared to meet the requirements and often change thier major into liberal arts. Today's kids have far more distractions then our generations did. They've been raised on game consoles and 100+ Channel cable TV. Interest in determining a future career is at the bottom of the list.

>It is likely the lessor educated will keep on making babies while the more educated will have fewer children.

This is always been true. When ever I hear about a co-worker or friend that just had a new baby, I find it depressioning to think about that child's future.  I doubt that anyone born today will ever have the opportunity to drive, even less, a decent education.

>I'd go to an Ag school and major in soil science...or, maybe, take the tuition money and become a speciality farmer.

I have one of the top hi-tech careers as you can get and I am in the process of giving it all up and going rural. I remember the oil shocks of the 1970s and I know that our economic system is not sustainable without cheap energy. My career is only as sustainable as the oil keeps on flowing.
In prepation, I have been spending the majority of my free time educating myself to become self-stainable.

"In prepation, I have been spending the majority of my free time educating myself to become self-stainable."

Maybe this will help...
  Todd has thought about this stuff more than anybody I personally know. I've posted some of the papers he sent me...

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21880292
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21893957
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21894050
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21936866
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21936869

And a final thought about subsistence hunting...

He's also the guy who told me that, when the Depression hit up here (northern Mendocino County), all the deer were hunted out in 6 months.

Rat thanking Todd

Thanks for posting these;and thanks to Todd. Prep is numero uno!!!                                                                      
Rat,

Thanks for the thanks.  I'm currently working on a paper entitled Austere Food Production.  The basic thrust is getting away from the idea of "gardening" and seeing it as one might see a business.  In essence, I believe people will waste time and resources growing the wrong stuff in the wrong way if TSHTF.  My idea is to provide a different view of how to do it and what to grow.  And, FWIW, part of it may be high carbon/Terra Preta type soils.

I thought I'd have it done weeks ago but life has been busy.  I'll get it circulated one of these days.

Todd

Todd,

Could you email about this paper? I'd email you but there is no email contact on your profile.

my email is matt@lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Best,

Matt

Matt,

I'll have to reset my email program but I'll get something off to by the middle of next week (there's a long story behind this that isn't germane).  There are a number that Rat didn't post.

FWIW, they are all in Word.  The doc titles are Giant 1, Giant 2 and Giant 3 since I combined a lot of docs into, big surprise, giant docs.  Lots of the formatting was lost in the posts he linked.

Your subject line will be Todd's Giant Papers.

Todd

Matt,

FWIW, my email addy is shown on Rat's first link.  But I didn't think I had blocked it on TOD.  I'll have to check.  In any case, now everyone knows.  Just don't send stuff on penis enhancers since all the email goes to my wife's computer.  I'd add more but this is a family channel.

Todd

Whoops. Sorry about that; didn't notice it.
Todd, spammers use bots that trawl the net looking for email addresses. You'll get spam pretty quick now it's out in the open. Just ignore/filter it.
Sounds great.  As a sometimes gardener I've definitely noticed that some crops yield big for low effort.  Other crops may just not be happy in that climate.

This isn't a comment to you specifically, but some in the thread who seem to think you have to leave for the hills:

I really hope that anyone who (a) is ready to go, and (b) already has access to 1/10th acre (and water) has the sense to "pilot" their ideas there first.

http://www.pathtofreedom.com/

As I say below, it's about "urban" homesteading and growing 3 tons of food on 1/10th acre.

... maybe if you produce a ton or two of food in a suburban setting you'll end up less of a pessimist ;-)

My impression is that the pysical changes today are less drastic then for my grandparents. What is internet and cellphones compared with electricity, telephone, radion, tractors, double glazing, running hot and cold water and paved roads with cars?

I expect peak oil to mean smaller cars that are expensive to use, more trolleys, more train travel, far less air travel, expensive food, less cheap toys, more software toys, less printed paper use, less living area per person complemeted with cheap unheated summer living area too feel richer, LED lighting, lots of bicycles and Ipods with batteries and connectors that can be changed at the local electronics repair shop.

...radio

And no I do not expect any of the early 1900 technological systems to expire with peak oil with the possible exeption of the rural telephone lines being replaced by radio.

They were built with far less oil input then todays use. They contain a much larger investment today and and require more maintainance but the manufacturing technology is more efficient now.

I do not expect the early 1900s stuff to just disappear when we hit Peak Oil, but I expect most of it will gradually fade away over the next 1,000 years.

Antoinetta III

cheap unheated summer living area

Here in Texas, we're less concerned about heating in summer as well... fortunately, we don't need refrigerated living areas so much in winter, however :=>

I agree with the idea of a local repair shop, however; the importance of repair will surely increase as our unsustainable throwaway culture gets too expensive to continue.

It has not made economical sense to repair a lot of stuff since manufacturing technology has become very efficient and a lot of stuff and toys have had and still have fast paced development.

I think one of the biggest staring points of future repairability is the need to recycle material. Easy manufacturing and easy breaking down favors maintainability and designers learn how to make smarter products.

When things get more expensive with higher energy costs I expect the switch over to maintainable stuff will be quick and follow the market expectations.

My model for this is professional chain saw maintainance shops and the TV repair shops of the 70:s.

I am very qurious about future electronics, motor and battery standards and so on. Some day the development will slow down and the same standard parts will be used everywhere since large scale manufacturing will continue to make sense and redesigning things cost money. But not yet and it would have sucked if the future had standardised on for instance 80:s cars or 90:s battery tools.

This reminds me of 40 year old train coaches and 50 year old two stroke diesel engines competing with modern busses and trucks wicth engines that almost can be used as air cleaners. A long life lenght is not allways a benefit if you neglect to invest in better technology. But it is of course nice when you can not afford to do so.

 "I'd go to an Ag school and major in soil science"

U.C. Davis.

School has a weird knack for pumping out peak oil aware people too.

Best,

Matt