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10 comments on 20 new fields needed every year in the UK

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Sam Foucher on June 7, 2006 - 12:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
A graph that may be relevant to the discussion: using the Parabolic Fractal Law proposed by Jean Laherrère we can assess how much we can get from small fields:

This graph is valid for the UK only and shows that doubling the number of small fields will only increase the URR by 2 Gb (Conventional crude oil only). The oil production is entering the tail portion of the parabolic fractal law and there is not much oil left!

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MUDLOGGER on June 8, 2006 - 5:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks,
and I was hoping to make it to retirement...
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westexas on June 9, 2006 - 1:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is why I think that there are two oil models that make sense:  small companies looking for small fields in mature areas (like the US) and unconventional oil production.  By and large, I think that most efforts in between will be road kill.

BTW, as I have frequently pointed out, the frantic post-peak drilling program in Texas had no discernible impact on production, which has not stopped some state employees from talking about vastly increasing our production through the use of--drumroll please--better technology!

My North Sea (crude + condensate) HL plot (posted courtesy of Khebab):  http://static.flickr.com/67/158784886_5c7a813465_o.png

This shows remaining recoverable reserves of about 17 Gb for the entire North Sea.

BTW, did you see the Energy Bulletin article on Holland's gas depletion problem?  

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/06/08/cndutch08.xml&menuId=242&s Sheet=/money/2006/06/08/ixcity.html

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westexas on June 9, 2006 - 1:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Sorry, didn't realize the HL plot was already posted (I have a slow dial up connection at work).
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westexas on June 9, 2006 - 1:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Just to be clear--I used the EIA crude + condensate production data for total North Sea (UK + Norway + smaller countries).   So, this puts the UK, Norway, et al, total remaining recoverable crude + condensate reserves at 17 Gb.   This suggests continued high decline rates.

The North Sea remains a fascinating case history for me because it peaked at exactly the same HL point as the Lower 48, 29 years later than the Lower 48.  As I have frequently pointed out, so much for better technology.  

You can compare the North Sea HL trend to the HL plots of Texas and the Lower 48 at:  http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2006/05/texas-and-us-lower-48-oil-production_25.html

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zceb90 on June 9, 2006 - 3:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Tks for the info re Holland's gas supply problem, I buy the paper version of the Daily Telegraph but had not read this section yet.  UK / mainland EU gas pipeline capacity is being raised in 2006 with provision of reverse flow capability thru pipeline to Belgium.  It doesn't sound like Netherlands' industrial customers are too happy about the prospect of gas being supplied to UK and we also know that supplies from Russia are not guaranteed.  The major new link from Ormen Lange (Norway) to UK will not be complete until 2007...and even at 20 bcm pa it will only buy about 2-1/2 years' time given steep decline curves for UK N Sea gas.  It looks like UK will have a worse gas supply squeeze in 2006/07 winter than this past winter and large scale LNG imports will be required by around 2010.  Details of UK / Belgium gas pipeline project here: http://www.bg-group.com/international/int-europe_downstream.htm
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10 comments on 20 new fields needed every year in the UK

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