The Oil Drum: Europe | Gas prices up again

11 comments on Gas prices up again

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zceb90 on July 29, 2006 - 12:42pm

zceb90, electric losses before the meter will be of no interest to someone who is spending £1000s replacing worn out central heating and is trying to guess gas prices for the next 20 years. The cost and supply of gas vs electricity are the only factors. A full blown GCH could be £5000. That buys a lot of electricity for the cost difference even today.

Individuals doubtless won't concern themselves with the matter of energy efficiency on the supply side of the meter but UK plc as a whole surely will. Given energy losses in burning fuel at power stations to generate electricity it has to be approximately twice as energy efficient to burn whatever gas is still available in home boilers as opposed to power stations.

I could understand a switch to electric power for domestic heating generated from combination of renewables, coal or nuclear but all 3 have major problems. Renewables are growing from a tiny base and wind and wave power alone cannot provide a constant base load on calm days. There a major CO2 issues with coal and, unless UK revives its coal industry in a big way increasingly expensive imports are required. Nuclear power has a long lead time and it's unlikely that the first batch of new builds (which are not even at the planning stage yet) could do any more than replace plant being decomissioned up to around 2020.

My view is that the most likely course of action will be for trends to occur whereby the number of rooms in houses being heated will reduce, heating will be run upon occupation as opposed to 24/7, number of occupants per house will increase, temperature settings will reduce and more clothing will be worn. A big program of insulation for existing houses would be an ideal step but I'm rather afraid that Gov'ts will wait until a full blown crisis is upon us before acting by which time financial resources (in the inevitable recession) will be a limiting factor.

I appreciate wood stoves are only an option for a tiny minority; I just happen to live in a very rural area with no natural gas supplies where, at present, large quantities of wood are available free of charge to me. The local council advises the nearby estate that they have to remove unwanted wood and they find it much cheaper to deliver it to me v hauling it further away.

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MUDLOGGER on July 29, 2006 - 5:34pm

''My view is that the most likely course of action will be for trends to occur whereby the number of rooms in houses being heated will reduce, heating will be run upon occupation as opposed to 24/7. ''

You have hit the nail right on the head. My in-laws lived in a very large house. When they retired, they shut down a number of rooms to cope with heating costs. Ultimately, they moved.

The Brits, over the last 4 decades have become used to shirt sleeve order, even in December, January and February.
This will change with time.

The deregulation of the energy market has reduced prices up until now. From last winter onwards we will start to examine more closely our efforts to 'gather winter fuel'.

Most households can slash fuel budgets by 15% over night. With thought, by as much as 25%.

But, and this is the biggest BUT of our times, will those who can afford fuel conserve? OK , so a fixed income pensioner cannot do anything but switch it off and thereby freeze and die, But will an upper middle class family behave in the same way?

Regrettably, I think not. The people who can afford to burn gas and electricity will continue to burn it. Until they, in turn can no longer afford to burn it.

Rationing by price will kill the fabric of our society. Just now, on the news, Teachers, Police, health workers are being priced out of Cities in England. Add heating and transport fuel costs to this, and the fabric irretrievably erodes.

And we get to the 'great unwinding'

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ziz on July 30, 2006 - 2:50am

"Nuclear power has a long lead time and it's unlikely that the first batch of new builds (which are not even at the planning stage yet) could do any more than replace plant being decomissioned up to around 2020."

In all the excitement (?) about the Dear Leader's apparent change of heart re nuclear power, this simple irreducible fact seems to have have escaped scrutiny - what will happen of course is that current stations will , by waving a magic wand in Whitehall have their working lives extended beyond design life to fill the gap - as has already happened I think with Dungeness B. Let us hope that such decisions are based upon a proper scrutiny rather than simply by desire.

What frightens me is that we have had under this lot of myopic midgets, no serious attempt to grasp the energy requirements of a cold wet island off the western coast of Europe for the next 50 years. One example, Pilkington's Glass has been taken over within last 2 months ( whopping £1.8BN cash deal !!) by JPG, (incidentally they with other Japanese co.Asahi Glass have 80 /90% of worlds flat glass capacity) - it is evident they intend to move production within say 3/4 years to Poland - making sense of cost , security of energy supply, lower labour costs in addition.

Aluminium smelter powered by Wylfa will close and production fed by Dubai , now world's largest smelting capacity - again plus lower labour costs.

These iterative decisions driven by enery cost/securty will naturally affect the core manufacturing economy - with all that it entails - Chris is right to point to energy poverty.

This is happening (with a vengeabce) in the US , especially in the Mid West - see this

http://www.hud.gov/offices/cpd/library/energy/homelessness.cfm

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