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121 comments on DrumBeat: July 4, 2006

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Jon Kutz on July 4, 2006 - 10:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Alan,
I would be interested in hearing your take on the advisability of running light rail connections out to airports.
Seems to me that in the near future there will be a lot less flights with seats costing a LOT more and the only people who will be flying will be the finincially well to do - And I would bet that they will continue to drive their SUV's to the airport.
Only people that might take light rail to the future airport will be people that want to take their kids to let them see the wealthy drive in and fly out and then tell their kids about how everyone used to be able to do that.
My take is that it would be better to run the light rails lines to amusement parks. The kids would enjoy it more?
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john milton on July 4, 2006 - 11:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think it is hard to make the case for light rail to the airport unless the community has already installed it at the other places where it makes more sense i.e. to/ from high density residential to high density employment/public facilities... But, it might be argued if you were to combine it with the removal of parking at the airport (esp. long term) that it would reduce highway congestion
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fum on July 4, 2006 - 4:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Rail to airports will also be used to bring the workers to the field, whether they are TSA screeners, counter workers or others.

Not a first link, but a good one after the core is developed (depending on the location of the airport relative to housing/work/entertainment centers).

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 4, 2006 - 11:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Even with $35 oil, I thought there was an overemphasis on rail links to airports (TPTB like them, they can think of themselves taking rail to the airport and avoiding that hassle).  In reality, 1/4 to 2/3 of the airport rail pax worked there (varies by airport).

However, high oil prices will not "kill aviation" directly.  At $35/barrel, refined oil was ~10% of airline costs.  Airline fuel economy has been steadily climbing per pax-mile (SW went from 45 to 54 pax-mile/gallon in the last 5 years).

The 787 will use 20% less than the 767 it replaces.  The 2012 EIS replacement for the 737 should use 25+% less fuel.

I am flying to the Houston Peak Oil conference for $99.10 RT from New Orleans.  Add a $40 fuel surcharge and I will still fly.  At 50 pax-mile/gallon, I will use about 12 gallons.  At a future 75 pax-mile/gallon, about 8 gallons.

The value of flying is high enough that it will not be easily displaced.  Home heating, daily commuting and other oil uses will likely be displaced first IMHO.

What will "kill aviation" for the general public is a prolonged, severe recession/depression with declining real wages.  But almost everyone will still fly "on occasion", even if only once every few years.

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solar1 on July 4, 2006 - 4:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree that flying will linger.  People need to "get together" from time-to-time, even if the intervals are several years.  The government with its supportive policies of no fuel taxes for jet fuel, provided airport infrastructure, radar facilities and revolving bankruptcy court support has kept it competitive with the automobile.  Russian air transportation is the type of model that we will probably evolve into.  

Right now people can replace most airplane trips quite easily.  The use of VOIP, Voice Over Internet Protocol, telephone service provides unlimited talk time anywhere/anytime in the USA.  See sunrocket.com to get the idea.  You can use web cams, home entertainment systems, to enhance voice contact.  Documents can be scanned in, then emailed/faxed.  Conference calling can bring multiple parties into the loop.  DVD disks made from Camcorders can be mailed.

With a little electronic hardware most airline flights can be eliminated easily and cheaply, once we warm up to the idea.  TODers should use this approach if possible.  

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121 comments on DrumBeat: July 4, 2006

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