I keep wondering why the MSM continues to seek out Yergin's opinions when they are constantly proving to be false.  Same with Steve Forbes.  I said in an earlier writing here in TOD that I'd rather trust my own instincts than listen to these charlatans.  And guess what?  I am consistently proving myself correct.  They are consistently wrong.  Imagine that!

 

I'll join a Google Bomb effort.  The link text would obviously be "Daniel Yergin Day" ... though it would be nice to point to a little essay someone has written on the subject.

Haha!  I think we should call it "Double Yergin Day" for emphasis.  Did Yergin specify in the article whether the 11/1/05 price of $38 would be intraday or closing?  BTW, what was the price on 11/1/05?  What will be the price on 11/1/06?

LOL, I just pissed myself laughing. -- Two "Yergins."

-C.

Yergin has made comments more recently that are closer to what we are currently observing.

http://www.time.com/time/globalbusiness/article/0,9171,1050297-1,00.html

In April 2005:
"And with markets this tight, you'll see a lot more volatility, and you could see prices spike up as high as $65 to $80. How high they go depends on geopolitics and market psychology."

I think he has made more critical errors in judgement,such as:
"By the time oil production plateaus, he says, ''I think we'll be driving cars that get 110 miles to the gallon, 120 miles to the gallon." To assume we won't be able to adjust in time, Yergin says, ''means you think the technological revolution that began in the 18th century is going to end."
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2006/02/26/oil_futures/?page=full

I think an interesting post here would be for someone to really look at all his predictions vs. current reality.

Re: Yergins

  Oh, Jeffrey, you're in rare form today.

Dan is a one man wrecking machine. So, when will we hit 3 Yergins? Recent price rises seem tied to nothing but tightness of supply. I believe the "concerns" about Iran are not driving the price. That is not to say I dismiss the possibility of a catastrophic outcome there. In fact, I think it has a probability over 50%. These neocons will be in power for only another 18 months. That's their window of opportunity for ruining the world. If they bomb or allow Israel to bomb, they can trot out Karl Rove's favorite trick one more time -- wrapping yourself in the flag and calling anyone who criticizes you unpatriotic if not treasonous.

Danny boy reassuring us all the time lays out happy scenarios that help pave the way for irresponsible geopolitical actions. Unlike you or me, he is well paid for his statements.

Einstein:
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe".

Bertrand Russell:
"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do."

and for some examples, from Tom Delay:
"Guns have little or nothing to do with juvenile violence. The causes of youth violence are working parents who put their kids into daycare, the teaching of evolution in the schools, and working mothers who take birth control pills. [on causes of the Columbine High School massacre, 1999]".

Daniel Yergin:
"The interdependence of producer and consumer is evident with LNG - the resources flowing out are balanced by the financial liquidity they give companies".

Of this last quote, this is a novel interpretation of the relationship between the drug supplier (Qatar) and the drug addict (America). In mental health programs, they take the opposite approach: cure the addition.

later, Dave

>I don't feel that Yergin gets sufficient credit for doing so much over the past few years to (effectively) encourage Americans to continue buying and driving large SUV's to and from large mortgages.  

I don't believe Yergin has any influence over American consumption, but histortically low interest rates most certainly did.

We are almost certainly now behind peak production. Global production has been steadly declining about 100,000 b/d every month. I seriously doubt that the new projects coming will be able to exceed declines. The existing field production declines will accelerate as will nationation of oil and gas assets.

Since were are already past the curve is pointless to enlighten the masses of the pending crisis. It would be far better to make your own preprations before time runs out and hell breaks loose rather than gamble on some gov't level effort to address the issue.

Once the world recognizes PO, exporters will almost certainly end or radically reduce exports to save their remain reserves for domestic use or to stretch out exports for trade. To believe that that the US or any country could initiate an manhattan/apollo scale project to address the issue is silly. There no longer remain sufficient resources to make long term preparations. When the crisis begins global stability will fall off the deep end as people and gov't panic over what to do and finger pointing becomes the norm. We have already seen the smoke, Nationalization of energy assets in Russia, and South America, China locking up energy with long term contracts, declining production at all the largest fields. It won't be too long before we start to see some flames.

"I don't feel that Yergin gets sufficient credit for doing so much over the past few years to (effectively) encourage Americans to continue buying and driving large SUV's to and from large mortgages."

This has to be a joke.  What percentage of people buying an SUV in the US has ever heard of Yergin or was familiar with his prognostications, even without attaching them to his name?  One tenth of one percent?  Less?

There are WAY more important things we can be doing aside from chasing people like Yergin in circles.