The Oil Drum | Well, could we linearize this, then?

108 comments on Well, could we linearize this, then?

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westexas on July 17, 2006 - 6:24am

Following is a copy of an e-mail I sent to the TOD guys. What I am basically looking for is any example of Michaal Lynch directly addressing the Hubbert Linerization method.(Note the three factors present on the "No" side--major oil compamy; major oil exporter and hired gun energy analyst.)

I have been asked to be a panelist on a Peak Oil debate on the McCuistion program, which is in national syndication on PBS. They are taping this coming Tuesday night. I'm not sure when it will air.

Ed Blessing, with Blessing Petroleum, and I will be on the "Yes--we have peaked" side. A representative of ExxonMobil and an energy analyst recommended by Saudi Aramco will be on the No side. Michael Lynch is supposed to call in from Tokyo.

Does anyone know if Lynch has ever addressed Hubbert Linearization? As best that I can tell, the answer is no. Also, anyone have any good quotes by Lynch regarding production and price predictions?

Thanks,

Jeffrey Brown

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totoneila on July 17, 2006 - 7:40am

Hello Westexas,

Try this link:

http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-Deffeyes).htm

sourced from Mobjectivist:

http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2006/01/linearization.html

I tried to do a 'Michael Lynch' archive search at the Yahoo: EnergyResources forum, but the server was down. He has a long history on this forum--great place to look for quotes. He also had a thread on this forum called "Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil"

http://www.peakoil.com/post136763.html#136763

Good Luck!

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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Darwinian on July 17, 2006 - 8:07am

Your first link is broken Bob.

http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(hubbert-deffeyes).htm

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Darwinian on July 17, 2006 - 8:08am

Crap, I hit post too soon. Anyway if you go to the broken link and type in:
(hubbert-deffeyes).htm it works fine.

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mr f on July 17, 2006 - 9:29am

Here's some more Lynch detritus:

http://sepwww.stanford.edu/sep/jon/world-oil.dir/lynch/worldoil.html

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Darwinian on July 17, 2006 - 8:02am

Jeffery, Michael Lynch has addressed the Hubbert method several times on the Energy Resources List. I don't recall his words but he was always very critical as I remember, saying it was inaccurate and unscientific, or something to that effect. I am no longer a member of that group but I was for about five years, during which time I and several others had many exchanges with Michael Lynch. You can search the archives and probably find many of them them.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/

Or you can contact the owner of the group, Tom Robertson, at:

t1r (at) bellatlantic.net

Good luck with your debate.

Ron Patterson

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Darwinian on July 17, 2006 - 8:53am

Jeffery, one more thing. One thing Lynch always brings up when his abysmal record of price predicting comes up is Campbell's record of predicting the peak. His defense goes something like this: "Why are you guys picking on me when Campbell has a worse record than I do?" I don't know how you would handle that one, but it is sure to come up so you can be forewarned.

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Colonel Drake on July 17, 2006 - 9:41am

This argument comes up all the time. So-and-so said we peaked when we hadn't.

It is like saying France and Italy are in the world cup final; who will win?

There have been thirty other teams in the tournament. Each team had supporters predicting a victory. Each team was eliminated. All thirty predictions were wrong.

So obviously neither France nor Italy will win.

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Gunga2006 on July 18, 2006 - 8:33am

Most of the analysts that say ,"This is the fifth time we have been warned of peaking oil" are the same guys who said we would never see oil over $50/barrel.
The market is telling us what is happening.

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Calorie on July 17, 2006 - 10:02am

As fas as I know Michael Lynch's most definitive direct refutation of the Hubbert model came in his paper

The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources:
Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers) (warning: pdf file)

The paper is not new as I read it sometime last year.

Does anyone know if Lynch has an active web site? His EnergySEER, Strategic Energy & Economic Research, Inc. consultancy web site seems to be dormant.

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