I disagree that we can, or should,  ramp up production of US fossil fuels enough to make a difference, but this is a very interesting opinion piece by a retired naval officer at www.military.com.

http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,107939,00.htm
Withdraw or Stand Firm?
Michael DiMercurio | August 01, 2006

"So how do we get of Iraq with our dignity and not have a costly energy crisis?"

Great minds think alike.  Leanan and I simultaneously posted the military.com story.
Death (to others) before conservation is apparently the credo we're going by these days. The invasion has turned out to be a fiasco and, more to he point, it pissed away resources that could have gone elsewhere. What a waste.
hey, someone's gotta die.  Might as well not be us.

(tongue firmly in cheek...)

Prof. Goose, your tongue may be stuck in your cheek - and I realise this is not a problem of your making - but if the US and Canada start to use their food surplusses that have enabled the world population to expand - to instead make bio-fuel to maintain a life style instead of life - is it not the case that starvation will be brought forward in whatever countries currently benefit from US food supplies?  I gather China is fairly high up that list.  Bio-alchol or food?
someone's gotta die.

EXACTLY RIGHT. In a population in overshoot, many individual organisms  must die. And humans on Earth are most certainly in overshoot. How do we decide who dies? Obviously, there's no easy answer if you want to be "humane." But there is one easy answer: NOT ME!

(and I'm dead serious, no tongue in cheek here. they can and will die, I'll hang on as long as I can.)

The "time of plenty" for the US and its partners in crime is coming to an end...

"The total amount of suffering per year in the natural world is beyond all decent contemplation. During the minute it takes me to compose this sentence, thousands of animals are being eaten alive; others are running for their lives, whimpering with fear; others are being slowly devoured from within by rasping parasites; thousands of all kinds are dying of starvation, thirst and disease. It must be so. If there is ever a time of plenty this very fact will automatically lead to an increase in population until the natural state of starvation and misery is restored."
~ Richard Dawkins: River Out of Eden, page131-132.

==AC

Richard Dawkins has always seemed such a reasonable fellow, I knew he must have said something reasonable sometime. well found AC :-)
It is impossible to avoid the feeling that Malthus is 100% certain to win the game eventually. It is like playing against a crooked house.
Well yes, but taking a broader view the second law will be the ultimate winner.

Being aware of peak oil has really made me face up to my own mortality, indeed to the mortality of everything around us. It makes it hard for me to keep ignoring the deeper questions about existence and its meaning.

"This too, shall pass".

The "time of plenty" for the US and its partners in crime is coming to an end...

Yet another meaningless emotional response!

"partners in crime" : this is the evolutionary selected cheater detection mechanism at work.
Assuming an entirely egalitarian worldwide society (same income for EVERYONE) the problems of Peak Oil would be JUST AS BAD!

Cut the bullshit!

It is the GROWTH and total population which matters.

I do wonder whether China in the near future will declare a vital interest in American agricultural output. That should make for interesting times.
In the meantime, we'd better get to work drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Slope of Alaska and ramping up production, with apologies to the environmentalists.

Don't apologize to me, apologize to your children. The war against nature is in reality a war of humans against humans: today's generation against all future generations. Our generation is winning big, but only by destroying humanity's life-support systems--clean water, clean air, and food production.

In the big scheme, the Iraq war is insignificant. The question is: "WHERE ARE THE REAL BATTLES?" The actual frontlines are right here in America, all around you: suburban sprawl, petrochemical factories, nuclear + coal power plants, industrial agriculture, and most importantly, the logging/drilling/mining of the few remaining intact ecosystems. Our victory is nearly complete. Soon it will be total, and all future humans can "thrive" in this toxic wasteland we have created for their enjoyment.

Crazypat, this is the point I have been making for years. We are competing for territory, food and resources with every other species on earth, and we are winning! We are killing off them boogers like there is no tomorrow. There are fewer other great apes on earth, about 200,000, than the human population numbers grow in a single day. Soon there will be none. Soon there will be no forest because we will have cut it all down to grow biofuels.

Soon our victory will be complete. We will have killed off every other species on earth except the rats and vermin that co-exist with us humans. Soon we will have a brown cursted earth all to ourselves. Then we can celebrate.

I guess....

PARTY DOWN! WE WIN!

yep, not much to celebrate, is there?

I was brushing up on my evolution last night. It's fascinating how the in the last stages of human evolution, the successor species exterminated its still-living ancestor species.

Also, I love how we are the most successful predator of all time. WE CAN EAT ROCKS!!! Literally! And like all extremely successful species, we will be destroyed by our own success. It is the natural order of things: an organism always modifies its environment just by existing, and its excretions are autotoxic. We can dominate, but not control.

Industrial civilization is as doomed as yeast in a wine cask.

The burning question on my mind is this:
Do humans have the power to destroy ALL life on earth?
Will nuclear armageddon do it? Persistent bio-accumulating organic toxins? Radical climate changes? I am still undecided, but I'm studying up on molecular biology. I'm sure we'll manage to cause another mass extinction--but I don't think we can actually destroy all life. Prokaryotes are some damn hardy organisms.

"Do humans have the power to destroy ALL life on earth?"

Yes, but probably with great difficulty as well as great(seemingly innate) stupidity.

Life is pretty resilient and could always re-evolve, though wasting a few million or hundreds of millions of years may be sad. I did a first pass of collapse levels a few years back:
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/01/levels-of-collapse-warning-may-be.html

Being humans we are more interested in our own and our economic systems survival, I have bad news: lots die and the economic systems break.

"Do humans have the power to destroy ALL life on earth?"

Naahhh...the cockroaches will always survive.  Heck, you can microwave those critters and they just laugh at you.

"Do humans have the power to destroy ALL life on earth?"

Not a chance.  There are creatures that require temperatures close to the boiling point of water in order to survive. They prefer temperatures above boiling. Some of the latest thinking is that they are very closely related to the first life forms on earth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperthermophiles

from the wikipedia article
The most hardy hyperthermophiles thus known live on the superheated walls of deep-sea hydrothermal vents, requiring temperatures of at least 90 °C for survival.

Many hyperthermophiles are also able to withstand other environmental extremes such as high acidity or radiation levels.

Note also that they do not even depend on current energy from the sun as almost all lifeforms do. As long as those deepsea vents remain hot, they have what they need.
No way. We like to think of ourselves as the peak of evolution, the most successful species and so on, but the fact is that every single individual alive today lives because all their ancestors survived long enough to be successful in the game. We are equally much winners - so far. Sure, we can look ahead and say the great apes will probably be dead soon, but that's our opinion. Evolution isn't about prescience. It's about what is, not what will come. Whether we will suddenly nuke ourselves has not been decided yet, and nature has, with its characteristic lack of forward planning, not taken that possibility into account one way or the other.

But the real lords of the planets are the microbes. If they could think through some form of emergent behaviour or something, they would probably regard us as mere brownian motion in the tea cup of evolution.

Apropos microbes: here's a link to an appropriately doomerish la times article called "The Rise of Slime".

Hello CrazyPat,

I am assuming you have read my previous postings on Mexico.  Mexico City [pop. approx. 20 million] is an area in extreme Overshoot, and the ongoing election standoff and Cantarell depletion is only adding to the population stress.  Now add in the absolutely mind-boggling water shortages and energy requirements to keep this area minimally supplied--Mexico City is optimally primed for a titanic clash as they go postPeak.  This link is two years old, but my guess is that things have only gotten worse since it was first published.

Excerpts:
-------------
Water Crisis as Mexico City Sinks Faster than Venice

Mexico City's underlying aquifer is now collapsing at a staggering rate beneath the streets. While Venice slips into the Adriatic at a fraction of an inch each year, Mexico City is lurching downwards by as much as a foot a year in some areas. Over the past century, it has dropped 30ft.

The city now has five pumping stations working around the clock to draw water vertically three-quarters of a mile from the neighbouring Cutzamala River basin and from the lower catchment area of the River Lerma. Paying about $50,000 (£28,000) a day in water rights alone, the system consumes the same amount of electricity as Puebla, a city of 1.3 million people to the south-east.

Below street level, the ongoing subsidence is wreaking havoc with the water distribution and drainage systems. The city's 8,300-mile network of water pipes routinely fracture, losing up to 40 per cent of potable water supplies, according to some estimates. The city's sewage used to drain away by gravity towards a far-off outflow in the Gulf of Mexico but now needs to be first pumped uphill before it can be drained.
----------------------
The Mayan and Aztecan collapses of yore will be nothing compared to when Mexico City has to be evacuated.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

westexas,

We may be the SA of coal, but how the heck does one "ramp-up" quickly with it? Especially if you tie GHG preventatives to it. It seems to me that we are tied to the Middle East for quite some years.

Funny he did not mention kicking over the Syrian regime. That might prove a benefit - just the knocking over of it, not occupying it. Eliminating an ally of Iran might be of benefit.

"Knocking over" Saddam has worked out well so far (for the long suffering USA taxpayer).
BrianT,

Legitimate point. But Syria continues to be a way-station and suppler of arms flowing into Lebanon (and Iraq).

Instead of occupying, maybe disposing of the Assad regime and letting the Syrians sort things out would buy the West and Israel time, and it would be a blow against Iran. Remember, there are very very few Shias in Syria, it is run by Alawites and is largely Sunni.

The Sunni/Shi'a split doesn't seem to be too important to Syria at the moment.  If the West went in and took out the Syrian gov't what do you think the Islamic world's reaction might be?  The whole Middle East is at a "tipping point"--the last thing we should do is give it a giant push.  Let's not forget the law of unintended consequences............
Autodidact,

All good points you make. But remember Syria is not currently a religious regime, but a Fascist state left-over, sort of like Franco's Spain into the 1960's.

But the Alawites dominate it and it would be comparable in part to having half the Cabinet in the USA run by members of the 7th Day Adventists. Some Sunni consider Alawites as beyond the pale.

Neither was Iraq, and the Baathists were despised as irreligious autocrats.  Now look what happened.
You are talking about creating a civil war in a country of 19 million people!

This is not a fucking game of Risk, you are talking about regular people, families, civilians.

The civil war in Iraq didn't satisfy your bloodlust? Just give it time.

What's wrong with you?

"This is not a fucking game of Risk, you are talking about regular people, families, civilians"

RIGHT ON!!!

Racism is judging a person or group of people solely on the basis of race.  Hating all the Arabs, or Muslims, or any ethnic or religious group, is fucking RACISM!!! And this is exactly the way the gov't=media=corporations wants you to think.  This is the propaganda 24/7 in our media.

Oh, and by the way, Red Cross observers on the ground in Qana say there were no rockets or Hezbollah in Qana.

It is not racism when the race (or culture) is Ay-rab. They are obviously 100% evildoers. You don't even have to listen to the MSM. You can get the message every day right here on TOD.
The actual targeting video footage disagrees with these observers you mention. Do you have a source for your story?

Thank you in advance.

All news sources I have been reading say there were no missile launches anywhere near the Qana homes that were bombed.  Even Israeli media are admitting that:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/745185.html

I have to admit that I do not put much faith on Israeli military propaganda "targeting video footage" that show a truck driving on some road as evidence of "rocket launchers" entering Qana.  With all due respect, my friend, I am surprised you do.

If you want to make a difference in a positive way, why don't you go to www.fromisraeltolebanon.com and sign the petition to stop this blood bath?  Thanks!

Fire Temple,

O.K., I will accept your solid argument that there was a major screw-up. In WWII it was called a FUBAR.

People died. It is wrong and sad.

If Hezbollah will work under the Lebanon Govt., AND as a part of it, and will not fire missiles into Israel UNLESS the entire Govt. agrees to it, well, I think you have an agreement (maybe with also taking/stopping resupply of THOUSANDS of missiles from Iran/Syria.)

On the radio last week I said if a third party fired missiles from Baja California into National City and Chula Vista, what do you think we would do? See President Wilson in 1916.

In World War Two the word was SNAFU.

Contrary to what is presented in "Saving Private Ryan" the FUBAR acronym came later (our of Vietnam, if memory serves, but I could be off by a war or two).

For current usage, most popular is BOHICA: Bend Over, Here It Comes Again.

For those doing multiple tours in Iraq, the last formulation is especially appropriate.

"This is not a fucking game of Risk, you are talking about regular people, families, civilians"

Tell that to the people that are shaping today's "New World Order"....didn't Bush Sr. coin that phrase?

AIPAC PNAC rah! rah! rah!

Ultimately, the only race you can't be racist against are the Chosenites. There have been coy murmurs here and there in the liberal press that you know, it's OK to not like black people, as long as you're not mean about it, and of course the noise about "illegal immigration" which we all know is about those brown people from down south, not illegals from England and Europe, and needless to say working-class white people have been a legitamate target for hate for years now, but don't ever ever ever say anything non-adoring about the Jews.

Now, there are Jews, and Jewish groups, who are against Zionism, but as much as possible is done in the US to deny they even exist. This is why  Chomsky is so marginalized here. There's actually a much more lively discussion about the direction Israel should go within Israel than here in the US.

The US is basically owned and operated by the AIPAC/PNAC faction of Zionists, being about equal parts Jews and Christians who seem to believe, respectively, in the superiority of the Jewish race and in the necessity to do whatever the Jews want so Jesus Christ will come back*

*which if he actually did, boy would he be pissed!

Your mask is slipping, fleam.
Your response is supporting his argument, don't you think?

fleam : don't ever ever ever say anything non-adoring about the Jews.

Jews are "more equal than others" with respect to antiracism.
I am surprised that you don't see the danger in this unsustainable position, it makes things worse.
There will ALWAYS be some racism around against EVERY and ANY group, it has to be contained to reasonable levels just like our other maladaptive traits.
There is no "final solution" to racism.

I think I disagree with you fleam. I want a safe Jewish state, I don't think the power of AIPAC/PNAC is quite as strong as you suggest.

I have Jewish friends, want Israel to be, yet mostly despise the Zionist state Israel is now.

Sadly I think Israel has crossed too many lines now and have probably united too may arab folks agaisnt them. My guess is that Israel must relocate to USA asap.

Becuse anti-Semitism crops up everywhere, it'll be hard to find a place willing to accept a moved Israel. Anti-Semitism mixed with NIMBY-ism means that nobody will want a new Israel given the government's track record and displacement of people needed to make room. Becuse of people having to be displaced to make room, it's nearly a sure thing that terrorism will ensue at the site.
Hmmmm, how come we don't have Anti-Japanese-ism? Japanese ppl live all over the world, there are substantial numbers of them in the US, in S. America, all over the place. Except for that one sad chapter of history in WWII, we don't have Americans or S. Americans strapping on bombs and taking out the local Okazu-ya. How come we don't have Anti-Irish-ism. There are some real FOB (fresh off the boat) Irish in the Bay Area and always have been large no's of Irish in areas on the East Coast. There have been large no's of Irish in San Francisco at least since they (and the Chinese laborers) were used to build the railroads. Yet, no one has ever strapped on a bomb vest and blown up the Irish bars, and goodness knows, everyone knows where those are. How about Anti-Chinese-ism? Anti-Korean-ism? I can shop at Wing Yuan or Han Kook markets fully confident that no one will blow the place to smithereens.

Why? Because no one has had their family massecred by Koreans, Irish, Japanese (at least not for a long time) etc. There is NO pattern of the Japanese, Irish, etc declaring themselves above the law, and massecring people around them. No one lives in Neighborhood X, where Neighborhood X has been in existance for 1000's of years, and have a bunch of this or that group move in next door, then start shooting them for sport like squirrels, cut off their water, chop down ancestral olive and almond trees, and level houses.

If speaking the truth makes me a Nazi, maybe we need to look at who thinks speaking the truth is so dangerous, or .... hey maybe those Nazis were onto something. Seig, heil!

I actually agree with you about something.  

I also think the whole "anti-semitism" thing is really blown out of proportion.  You can't tell me that there is a hostile anti-semitic attitude in the U.S. as a whole.  A jewish family could move in next door to me and neither I, nor anyone else on the block would think anything of it.  

Just because a very tiny minority of people are anti-semitic, doesn't mean there's a huge undercurrent of hatred toward jews.  There are still people who are racist toward blacks.  The whole bruhaha about immigration has some undertones of racism toward Latin Americans.  

There will always be a small number of people who are bigots and who dislike certain nationalities/races/religions.  I say it is BS that there is serious anti-semitism to the point that jews can't live in a country like the United States or most European countries, where anti-semitism is purportedly worse.  The argument makes about as much sense as saying that African Americans all need to move back to Africa because a few kooks still exist out there who are racist toward black people.  

While there is little or no racism against the Irish in the US, let's not forget Belfast.  The Irish are not exactly loved in England and Scotland.  Similarly, the Koreans and Chinese probably have some residual resentment toward the Japanese over WWII.  There was plenty of racism in the US against the Irish and Chinese back when they were being used as cheap labor, just like that against the Hispanic immigrants today.  Acts of terrorism are the (usually) last resort of groups who perceive themselves powerless to resist oppression/occupation in non-violent ways.  Immigrant groups in the US haven't needed to resort to them because, in spite of racism and discrimination, they've been able to operate within the political structure to resist and improve conditions for their groups.

Native Americans, however, did resist violently (after trying peaceful means--treaties that were largely ignored by the US gov't) but were crushed by the superior numbers and firepower of their oppressors, who had no compunction in using terrorist actions themselves (ethnic cleansing on a huge scale).  Once a resistance group has been neutralized either through overwhelming defeat or assimilation, the dominant culture can safely ignore them.

The only reason we haven't had terrorism by oppressed groups in this country since the Indian Wars is because the conditions that create it haven't been in place here.  We've mostly exported our oppression and our representatives have been attacked in those countries (embassies, troops, businesses, etc. that have been attacked in Africa, the Middle East, Central & South America).  9/11 was the same sort of attack, they just brought it home for a change.  

I expect to see more home-grown terrorism if the economy tanks (as is likely), the gov't grows more oppressive (as is likely), and some ethnic/religious/economic group or groups get blamed for the problems with resulting unfair discrimination (very likely).  If they feel they have no other options, they'll resort to violence.

agric Noam Chomsky talks about this a lot - it seems at the founding of Israel, there were two main strains of thought, one was to get along with the neighbors, they were the sort of lefty socialist strain, the ones who came up with all the kibbutz farms, one of which Chomsky spent some time on. And the other strain was the direct descendent of the Stern Gang, Irgun, etc - let's be badass war hawks, and this 2nd strain has been encouraged by huge arms gifts from the US, and has become dominent.

Now, yeah, it's probably a case where the only solution is to give the Isrealis Navada or something. But, the first neighborning village they pillage and massecre, you can expect Americans to strap on the bomb belts.......

It appears that PO is the trump card in the battle between the US/Israel and the Arabs. As dependent as the US and Israel are on imported oil, the  US Congress will have no choice but to abandon their Israeli-centered ME foreign policy and instead securing Arab governments' favor and access to oil.

The interesting thing is that the Israeli lobby as you mentioned is so entrenched here, that the US would clearly do whatever it takes to ensure Israeli has a steady stupply.  

Interesting. I thought of the same idea before. All the Arabs need to do is get together and in unison say either divorce Israel or we shut the valve. Two obvious scenarios come up:

  1. We divorce Israel, and we get the oil, but Israel goes into a nuclear rampage. We lose.

  2. We stay with Israel, and they shut the valve. War ensues and we are crippled without the oil. Then, Israel in desperation since we can't help, they go into a nuclear rampage anyways. We lose.

Either way, the oilfields end up producing Green Glowing Light Sweet Crude that is useless. And we lose.

Thus, the only strategy is to keep the Arabs divided as long as possible. When they unite, it's Game Over.

Sunspot,

"Oh, and by the way, Red Cross observers on the ground in Qana say there were no rockets or Hezbollah in Qana."

And you believe, though actually the better word is accept, this as accurate?

Now the Red Cross is terrorists? The Red Cross is sympathizing with Hizbollah?
Yes, Jack Greene, some people believe the Red Cross before they believe the IDF or Fox News or Iranian exiles being paid by PNAC.
And your blood lust is showing.
The thing to remember is that unless you are there, in person, no one really knows who is spinning what on the electronic media.

We would all do well to review the lessons in "Wag the Dog".

Dragonfly41,

Exactly my point. One must examine sources from all possible places. I would suggest that electronic media is spinning from many different directions.

I thought Wag the Dog was way too much Washington Beltway - not everything stops at the front of the TV screen, and in this modern age of the blogs, it is hard to hide anything, as if one could hide much 10-20 years ago.

Are you trying to tell me nothing gets "spun" on blogs?  I would hardly say that's the truth.  Even though it's written by individuals, some have become masters at it.
Dragonfly41,

Whoa, just the opposite. Tons and Tonnes get spun at blogs.

kvenander,

Rather them than us.

Also, it will give the Syrians the opportunity to get rid of a corrupt dictatorship that has 20% unemployment weighted down by a creaking old military machine that has been sending in men and supplies to kill our people in Iraq and in Israel, and the last time I looked, Israel was and is our ally.

By the way, Risk is far too simplistic.

And you believe that will actually happen? Maybe they'll throw sweets and flowers too, right?
Chocolates. Definitely chocolates. That's what I would want thrown at me.
wehappyfew,

No, they will not throw chocolates, they would want to throw bombs, but in their backward state (and frankly people who think the 9th Century is the place to be, well, I will take a pass) they might shoot longbow arrows.

Long-bow arrows? But if they are so backwards, why the WMD threat as in Iraq?
Prodigal Son,

Ask yourself, do you really think Iran does not want to have the Atom Bomb? If the answer is yes, than what do you do about it? If no, than you and I do not agree.

Long-bow is a reference to Shakespeare's HENRY V, not literal.

I'm not afraid of an Iranian atom bomb. We lived with a 'fanatical' USSR for 50 years.
Prodigal Son,

Israel is, and they have a reason to be afraid. Six million in 1941-45.

The USSR and kin did not embrace an end of the world philosophy and a "Death is Good" and it is now the "End of the World" religion.

I'm not Israeli, nor do I give a tinker's damn about the state of Israel. If Israel wants to occupy others' land and bomb women and children in Beirut that is their affair, not mine.

I'm a US citizen. My interests are with the United States. Jerusalem is not worth the bones of a single US Marine, and it is certanily not worth the billions we've given Israel in foreign aid.  

Fuck 'em.

The USSR and kin did not embrace an end of the world philosophy and a "Death is Good" and it is now the "End of the World" religion.

<Yawn> Nice right-wing talking point there. </yawn>

Religion will be the death of us.  Long live Atheism!
Amen, Autodidact! So far, only Atheists have avoided radicalism to the point of violence. While Islam is the most infamous for religious violence, the Israelis prove Jews can get violent, and don't forget the Crusades. There's plenty of blame to go around with Middle East stupidity. I liken their squabbling as like two neighboring kids fighting about believing in Santa Claus or The Tooth Fairy but using their dads' shotguns.
Well...

French Revolution

Bolshevik Revolution

Chinese Cultural Revolution

Pol Pot genocide of Cambodian people

Systematic starvation of millions of Ukranians under Stalin

Hm, now what was it about those nice reasonable atheists???

Now agnostics, maybe there is a glimmer of hope there. It is hard to generate the emotional fervor to kill masses of people under the slogan, "I am an ignoramus. Maybe you should be one too?"

Well..it could be argued communism was just a different kind of religion -- it certainly had many of the characteristics of one.
Point taken.  However, I was referring specifically to our current situation both globally and in the US, where it is the religious zealots that seem to be trying to ignite WWIII.  Atheists/agnostics are not immune to sociopathic behavior although I would posit that such individuals are not representative of the philosophies to which they lay claim.  The same can be said of such individuals that pretend to be followers of any religion.

As was pointed out, the crimes you list were committed by so-called Communists who were ostensibly operating with utopian (from their perspective) goals in mind--concepts not much different than those of the religious zealots.  Their professed atheism is insignificant to their political beliefs.  So, IMO, these groups (Communists and religious believers) can be lumped together and my point still stands, though I should perhaps change some terms.  Change "religion" to "zealots" and "atheism" to....hmmmm, what's a good label for "live and let live" beliefs?  Tolerantism?  

they might shoot longbow arrows.

I would rather bet on IEDs, have we not seen that somewhere else already?

Kevembuangga,

And don't forget suicide bombers.

Of course, and ...
How do you get rid of that?

For various reasons, the longbow never really caught on outside of England. However, the horsemen of the middle east have been extraordinarily proficient with various kinds of compound bows and crossbows.

The myth of the centaur was based on mounted Ukranians ("Sythians) shooting short and powerful bows to overwhelm ancient Greeks. Both Mongols and Turks were marvelously profiecient mounted bowmen.

To get an idea of how hard it is accurately to shoot an arrow from horseback, just try it.

For various reasons, the longbow never really caught on outside of England.

Yet another lapse in your "education" Don, the longbow was used way before the englishmen reinvented it.

It is mentionned in Xenophon's Anabasis as used by the Karduchians or Kurds (!) :

They were, moreover, excellent archers, using bows nearly three cubits long and arrows more than two cubits. When discharging the arrow, they draw the string by getting a purchase with the left foot planted 28 forward on the lower end of the bow. The arrows pierced through shield and cuirass,


You know how long a "cubit" is?

You know how hard it is to shoot a longbow from a horse?

The English longbow was unique for a number of reasons, including availability of yew for the staff and the ability of some monarchs to persuade (or bribe) large numbers of "yeoman" to develop the incredible muscles needed to draw a 130 lb. self-bow.

The kurdish bows were compound recurve bows--entirely different from a self longbow such as the English used.

You are talking to an archer here.

BTW, there was an excellent "Scientific American" article on the evolution of the bow in military applications recently, not more than twenty or thirty years ago, if memory serves. The key problem with the longbow is that it takes many years of training and constant practice to develop and maintain the strength and proficiency to deal with a bow that has a draw weight of 120 to 150 lbs. (Some English longbows probably had a draw weight in excess of 150 lbs.) The arrows from these English bows could pierce the finest armor of steel plate in the thirteenth century--armor far better than that available in Xenophon's time.

Archers however, seldom get much respect. Look at Pandaros, who killed Achilleus, and from whom we get the inglorious word "pander," meaning to pimp. Come to think of it, the two Pandars were probably different people, but you get the point.

Mongols, Parthians, Pechenegs,etc and other central asian nomadic horsemen used
Re-curved compound bows, not long bows. (There aint a lot of Continental Yew on the Steppes)

Oh and BTW: The Welsh were probably the first to perfect the art of the medieval ''English Longbow''.

The longbow probably goes back about 50 000 years, so calling it ''English''is a bit of a misnomer.  

Still , we happy few, we band of brothers do owe some kind of proto-nationalistic debt to Henri Tydder.

The way things are going, the longbow may yet come back in fashion...

The Welsh are not an especially large people, physically. (Though Dylan Thomas was certainly large in some dimensions.) To draw a bow  of  say, 140 lb. weight you have to be
  1. Large
  2. Beefy, extremely well-muscled, probably built somewhat like a lobsided wrestler with a twenty inch diameter neck.
  3. Based on the historical evidence I've seen, the longbow flourished for only a few hundred years--largely because of the difficulty and expense of feeding and organizing large numbers of large men and training them and providing arrows. You had to practice probably three times a week at least to maintain a minimum level of proficiency. Your average peasant (regardless of ethnicity) was just not up to it. A beefy tall (i.e. taller than the five foot three average of the middle ages) well fed (lots of mutton, pork, cheese and beef--very very expensive to feed) guys organized into platoons and companies, together with officers--all very expensive, very difficult.

Much cheaper was to hire Genoese crossbowmen. Not as effective--but much much cheaper.
When the IDF get to the Litani River, they will start to get close up to the Syrian Border.

Then there will be a 'border incident'...

I think the IDF are playing for keeps this time: 600 000 Lebanse refugees; destruction of infrastructure required for a viable life; massive rebuilding costs beyond the finances of the Lebanon; pollution and damage to a healthy, emerging tourist industry in Lebanon; and The IDF dont appear to care about world opinion. You wouldnt do all this unless you were determined to win.

Israel must also know that if Hezbullah is eliminated, another will rise in its place later, possibly manned by the young men in the above mentioned 600 000 refugees.

And of course, its convenient that, at this time, the US have a lot of boys on the ground in the next country along from Syria. Eastern Syria is 'good tank country'.

But just a polite reminder: Baathist Syria is a friend of a Nuclear tipped oil power called Russia.

Just a thought, but who knows where this may go?

Mudlogger,

Please explain to me why only a small portion of the Israeli Army is mobilized, if this is their plan?

The Syrian army is pretty bad, so maybe Israel only needs a small percentage of its force. . . .

The IDF are mobilising reserves. Israel has about 150,000 Reseves. Now, it may be that the IDF will be happy with cordon sanitaire along the border, but it could be that the IDF have worked out that a dead zone all the way to the Litani is a good idea too. The risk is an IDF - Syrian border event. And what better time to do it than when US forces are next door?

My point is that this is different.

Someone somewhere has worked out that Israel has to win every war; Islamic States only have to win the last war.

Ultimately it is a matter of demography.

We will see. But Israel is faced with a problem. As time goes by, her ability to win wars against her neighbors will become increasingly difficult, simply due to numbers.

It is likely that Israel feels that she no longer has a choice. As time goes by, the population numbers just do not add up,and of course, the soldiers of Hezbullah learn, just as we, slowly learnt how to deal with Blitzkreig, they too are getting better at taking on the IDF.

Hezbullah could be destroyed, but some other organization would spring up and take up arms in it's place. You cannot displace 600 000 people and expect to be loved for it. When you do this, then you must realise that you must forever police a dead zone. No amount of UN Troops in a buffer zone  will 'cure' this problem. It is old strategies being applied in a new world. The population bomb makes all the difference. The Six Day war and the Yom Kippur War were fought under a different demographics. The world has changed. There are many more Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, Jordanian, Egyptian, Saudi, Iraqi and Iranian boys who are 'up for it'. Shit, they cant even get laid. What exactly do you do with fit young men who have no future?

This is the sorrow of the Middle East: perpetual war of annhilation.

Add to this: Peak Water, Oil and Grain.

With young men who have no future and no sex lives there is only one thing you can do: Turn them into martyrs.
Not only do they have no future and sex life, but they don't even have booze to drown their sorrows. So, they sit, with their Turkish coffee at the cafe' and talk. And talk , and talk about the "great satan". Who wouldn't want to go to paradise and have 72 virgins and rivers of wine?

Next thing you know, they strap on the wearable bomb, and KABOOM!

Hello Mudlogger,

Your Quote: "Just a thought, but who knows where this may go?

Perhaps the Israelis and Lebanese are battling for future Earthmarine control of a viable and large biosolar habitat.  Extrapolate and consider the larger context from the information included in this earlier posting of mine.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Sadly, you may be right.

Each region  may decide how best to proceed in it's own nation's interests.

We may be watching PO /P Water / P Food in action as we speak. No longer in the realm of academosphere or blogosphere, but 'coming to a civilisation near you'.

''Well, in their time, they made a really good peanut butter sandwich''. (Said the Cockroach) - Actually Bageant from Cold Type - but I am sure he wont mind.

Getting hardnose nasty, one solution to the "peak oil" problem would be for the USA to get together with China, India and Europe and go into the Middle East and wipe out all of the people living there. That would free up the almost 10 million barrels per day that they are consuming in those countries for export from the new "Petroleum Park" managed by a joint consortium of oil companies from each nation involved the project.
A side benefit would be the elimination of all the terrorists at the same time. And it would send a clear message to the other oil producing countries that they had bettern not mess with deliveries of "our oil" to the USA, China, India and Europe.
And I will almost guarentee that there are people in the Government(s) that are thinking about it.
It would beat fighting a nuclear war with China or India over the oil!
This sounds like a major war crime on a planetary scale.
Well, what do you suppose people really mean when they say that the "American lifestyle is non-negotiable"?
And the leaders of China aren't going to let the residents of the ME stand in their way of China's growth.
War crimes are only commited by those who lose the war, not by those who win them - According to history.
Mind you I am not advocating this or saying this is what should happen, I am only putting forth what could/might happen when we hit major problems with demand outstripping supply. And ignoring the possibility is a good way to "let it happen". You have to think and talk about the worst possible scenarios if you hope to be able to have any real chance to avert them from happening. Ignoring these possibilities by those aware of Peak Oil is just like Joe Sixpack ignoring peak oil 'cause he doesn't want it to happen.
Well, what do you suppose people really mean when they say that the "American lifestyle is non-negotiable"?

I think that means that the American people will think everything is OK ... right up until the costs start to stare them in the face.  This has already happened in Iraq.  The polls are running for pull-out, and not "double up."

We can thank our stars that we were not quite so evil that we accepted this price tag and went shopping for more.

Another question would be tho ask who said "non-negotiable" and what is his political strenght right now?
Dick Chaney and he's still calling the shots.  Excellent anyalysis of the Israeli/Lebanon war at Asiatime (atimes.com) and Billmon.org.
I really think we've turned a corner.  Another indication:

Hagel: Bush Should Seek Immediate Cease Fire In Lebanon; Says Iraq Is Vietnam All Over Again

There's breaking ranks, and then there's breaking ranks.

odograph,

Hagel is seriously thinking of running for President. He is also a bit like McCain in the GOP.

Actually George H. W. Bush used these words before the veep did.

http://vitw.org/archives/714

Incidentally, the Vice President of the United States is Richard B. Cheney, not Chaney.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/vicepresident/

This is Chaney (Lon).
Som confusion is understandable.
Gee, maybe that explains my typo.  The resemblance is uncanny!
Mobsters R Us -- 'Say, nice country ya gotz here...would be a shame if something happened to it.'
There are terrorists in other parts of the world, ya know. Indonesia has the worlds largest muslim population, if you are assuming that muslims are terrorists.
neon9,

The usual number thrown out after 9/11 was a potential pool of 1% of the Muslim population. In my opinion I think it was way too high of a figure, but in areas, like Pakistan or Somalia, it would be higher, while lower in India.

The fact that it is not anywhere near 1% points out to me that most people (Muslim, Arabs, French, etc.) do not want a return to the 7th century.

most people (Muslim, Arabs, French, etc.) do not want a return to the 7th century.

Right! So why are YOU longing for that by any other means?

I don't know if this has been posted before, or if the info is accurate, but for those who like strategic conspiracies, there is lots of ammo here:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=CHO20060726&articleId=2824

I don't know if this has been posted before

Yes, it is on EB too.
It is a well known project:

THE BAKU-TBLISI-CEYHAN OIL PIPELINE, Globalisation and Inequality, Daniël Meijers

Bush voices support for oil and gas pipelines leading from Caspian to Turkey

How is this a conspiracy?

KVBGA.  The pipeline is of course common knowledge, but the BBC have not been reporting that the Israeli attack on Lebanon was about securing the Tblisi pipeline let alone water exports to Israel from the Tigris and Euphrates.  I find the reasoning of this article all too plausable but at the same time unbelievable - or am I in denial?  I'm not American, but it seems reading these pages that Americans are taking a lot more about government duplicity for granted than even the most sceptical Europeans.  Tony is now trying to wriggle from the tight corner he is in.
As I noted above.
A side benefit would be the elimination of all the terrorists at the same time

pssst your racism is showing.
Fuckwit:

Haven't we had enough empirical evidence that social engineering with cruise missiles is about the dumbest god damn idea to be hatched in the last hundred years?

Causing even more chaos in the Middle East is just about the dumbest idea I've heard yet.  We have long supported regimes like those in Saudi Arabia precisely because they offered stability.  Personally, I think our support for brutal, dictatorial regimes is wrong, and is not a policy we should follow, but I at least understand the logic behind it.  

The idea of purposely destabilizing the whole region has no logic behind it whatsoever.  The likelihood of a democracy springing up out of the ensuing anarchy is incredibly remote.  Another dictatorship is exceedingly more likely.  During periods of anarchy, people seek stability first, and only relative trivialities like political freedom last.  So just going through toppling governments would not offer any tangible benefits, and very likely would result in even worse, and more hostile fundamentalist governments.  

Our problem with Iran is we're treating them as an enemy, which they may be, but rather than treat them as one we need to "defeat", we need to treat them as an adversary we need to learn to work with.  Our foolish overreliance and overconfidence in our military might has accomplished jack shit so far.  Maybe if we'd tried being a bit more friendly to Iran all along, things would be different now.  In any case, we'll have to start some time, because you don't make friends by just going around throwing bombs.  This is also one of the mistakes with Israel's posture as well.  

The interesting part was that this was written by a former member of the military establishment.  What he admitted to was pretty astonishing, IMO.

It appears that we have the current and retired senior officers in the Pentagon to thank for forcing the BCR (Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld) to take the nuclear option off the table regarding Iran.   I think that we are seeing the beginning of what may be an ultimatum to BCR by the officers in the Pentagon regarding BCR's misadventures in the Middle East.  

The body counts in Iraq may seem somewhat abstract to most us, but the officers in the Pentagon are seeing their fellow officers and their enlisted personnel following their orders being slaughtered for no discernible reason.

This story reminds me a lot of the Vietname debate.  I have forgotten who said "Just declare victory and get out," but it's a great line for today's situation.

Long time lurker,  First time poster.

On the original article(page 2) there is a discussion,
I found the comments interesting.  Most were saying we should stay the course.

"If we don't fight them there,  we will have to fight them here."  was the general mood.

I want to thank all of you for putting out all this good info and thought provoking subjects.

JC

Unfortunately "if we don't fight them there, we'll have to fight them here" is believed in a lot by the average American.

I was shocked to hear a friend of mine say that all those Lebanese-Americans we rescued and put on cruise ships back here, are Hezb'allah agents, and once they're back here, will start doing terrorist acts here. He actually believes this.

Well, it couldn't help just how utterly pathetic our media is.  We see hardly anything about what's going on in other parts of the world and what people there are thinking, besides the grandious explosions of the military conflicts we are involved in.  The average American is never exposed to the real people who live in Lebanon, or the Middle East.  All they ever see is a propaganda caricature that is eagerly fanned by dishonest politicians.  

The current view of the world presented to Americans is entirely self centered, with our comfort and safety being all that matters, and the hell with the comfort and safety of others.  The way things are presented, people elsewhere in the world are just there for our own amusement or convenience, and other than that they just don't matter.  

I don't find it especially surprising that most Americans' attitudes pretty much reflect the crap that is presented on the "news".  

My tea leave reading was that when we had those six retired generals step forward, go on TV, make statements, meet with the whitehouse, and then go quiet again ... that behind the scenes they had done a deal.

This would be around the time of the Seymour Hersh articles on Iran & the nuclear option.

Actually, I'd guess that the deal was no bombing in Iran of any kind ... but your tea leaves may vary ;-)

I have a feeling that you're right about the top brass managing to avert an attack on Iran - so far.

Thus the War Party's attempt to go around them via Lebanon and Syria - trying to create an "inevitable" escalation.

"Senator George Aiken, Republican of Vermont, uttered his famous solution: "Declare victory and get out." The great tragedy was that Lyndon Johnson, either too willful or too worried about history's judgment, would not yield. Instead, it destroyed his presidency."

Source.

The Secretary of Defense at the time of the fall of Saigon was Donald Rumsfeld. No way is he going to be the one to let the fall of Bagdad happen. It's all about Rummy's ego.
Your facts are in error. Donald Rumsfeld was Secretary of Defense from November 20, 1975 to January 20, 1977  (when Carter was sworn into office).

The city of Saigon fell on April 30, 1975, more than six and a half months before Rumsfeld was sworn into office.

As I stated, your facts are in error, thus your conclusions are to be questioned.

Rumsfeld was White House Chief of Staff at that time. I stand corrected. He is probably still haunted by the fall of Saigon. The GOP blamed the Dem Congress for cutting funding for Vietnam.
The Domino Theory was widely argued by both parties during the 60s. It is a lot like the if we don't fight them there we'll have to fight them here propaganda. I'm still waiting for the Viet Cong to storm the beaches of San Diego.

@Westexas

The body counts in Iraq may seem somewhat abstract to most us, but the officers in the Pentagon are seeing their fellow officers and their enlisted personnel following their orders being slaughtered for no discernible reason.

The Iraq war combined with the Afghanistan war appear to have hit the special forces disproportionally hard. (Sorry, lost the link to the article). Since current strategic thinking is that future wars will be increasingly volatile and will be increasingly anarchistic, i.e. more guerilla warfare with less and less clear distinction between populace and army the special force become more and more important for warfare. Therefore the number of casualties is not as important for military as the number of special forces that are lost.

Your statement about production of US fossil fuels is interesting as I was just wondering what a realistic expectation of US oil production might be, if we drilled in ANWR, if we drill in the eastern Gulf, if we drill off the east and west coasts, etc.  Could we even sustainably produce 10 million bpd?

I was thinking about this after watching another infuriating c-span segment, this one with Sen. Landreau (sp?).  I like her and I'm not opposed to expanding drilling in the gulf, but there is always the unspoken (or spoken) assumption amongst some callers that we can drill our way to energy independence, especially where oil is concerned.  I know that's bunk, but I'm trying to get a handle on what we could realistically produce if we drilled absolutely everywhere.

"Could we even sustainably produce 10 million bpd?"

No.

We can slow the rate of decline of total oil and natural gas production in North America by exploiting conventional and unconventional sources of oil and gas natural gas, but these sources should be used as a bridge to an economy that is powered as much as possible by electricity from renewable sources.  

IMO, this is the Great Debate.  

Do we believe ExxonMobil, Yergin, Saudi Arabia and most of the auto/housing/finance group and continue to try to expand our economy--and increase our consumption--against a finite resource base, or do we tax the hell out of energy consumption, offset by abolishing the Payroll Tax, and use our fossil fuel resources as bridge to a more sustainable future?

The latter is the clear logical option. The former keeps those in power still in power until cliff is seen through the fog by everyone.
Absolutely right. Build a bridge to renewable, sustainable life, as much as we can. But make it a carbon release tax, rather than an energy tax, to reduce the increase rate of the damage done to the climate, which may make nothing sustainable.
Houston Peak Oil Conference on August 13, 2006

http://www.houstonpeakoil.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=44&Itemid=2

Alanfrombigeasy and I will be speaking.  I know of at least one person who wants to carpool from Dallas, if anyone is interested:  westexas@aol.com

Any possibility of online streaming or posting of video files for those of us unable to attend?
I'll ask, but this is a pretty low budget, local event.
That would be me. I've got room for 3 more in my Prius. Email we_happyfew[at]hotmail.com
Selfish bastard. If you had a hummer you'd have room for 7 or 8.
Who says I don't? I have room for 3 more in the trunk, next to the toasty warm NiMH battery pack. Only a little of the alkali aroma/flavor seeps out, and that disssipates after a few showers.

With two hot babes in my lap, two more in the passenger seat, four in the back seat... that comes to...

Oh never mind, I just can't compete with AMPD in the fantasizing department.

The Prius has a carrying capacity of 850 lbs, which means 4 Japanese and their luggage or 2 Americans and their luggage.

Or me and a really full load of junk lol!

Two words -- Political Economy.

The old order is fighting tooth and claw to maintain the status quo. It makes you wonder what needs to happen to begin the process of change in this country when not even something like Katrina or the Iraq debacle makes much of an impact.

Two words: POLICE STATE

Welcome to the New America. The limits to growth are here--and you lose.

OK so how did the Nazis, our closest parallel, cope with fighting a war, and dealing with decreasing resources (they had greatly decreased oil imports, food had to be siphoned off to the Army, etc.) I believe how they did it was to order everyone able to at all, to work more, put more land under cultivation even if just worked by hand, etc. In other words, although it may not have looked it because of less purely consumer goods, they went into a hyper-production, hyper-consumption mode.

Exactly in line with the "American Way Of Life Is Non-Negotiable" model, consume more! They're doing this to use via propaganda rather than at gunpoint because doing it by propaganda is much, much cheaper and spares good fighting men for the war front instead of having to have them at home watching over us. But, the gunpoint method is always there, waiting in the wings....

Too late, America has already lost its dignity. Now it has secured the oil in Iraq, pulling out and leaving a humanitarian disaster is not an option.  

The US and allies need to fix the situation. Otherwise it will look like nothin more than plundering a countries resources for its own gain, with total disregard for the people and culture of that country.

Of course it would have been better not to have invaded in the first place, and used the money to research alternative fuels, or more a more fuel efficient motor.