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54 comments on KR: Administration backs off Bush's vow to reduce Mideast oil imports

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Twilight on February 2, 2006 - 6:48am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
The things that are said by these people mean nothing.  Their commitments mean nothing.  There is no truth, only spin.  Facts and propaganda are indistinguishable to them.  Their strength is that people listen to what they say and attempt to ascribe meaning to it where none exists, and expect them to behave according to traditional conventions - but that means nothing to them.  Merely by hearing them you are at a disadvantage.

But we as a society are so used to the constant barrage of lies called advertising, that we don't expect anything more - we're not alarmed by it at all.  When you combine this with the lack of education and curiosity of the public, you get situations like this - where the POTUS can stand before the nation and say something preposterous, and then the next day his staff can retract it, and no one will care.

Do not listen, watch the actions instead.

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DuncanK on February 2, 2006 - 7:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, someone's listening.  Look at the charts at the side of this page.

Looks like the oil and gas traders see something positive in all of this.

Beats me if I know what it is!

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westexas on February 2, 2006 - 8:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
(This was probably written close to two years ago, and it looks like Russian oil production is topping out about 5% above his upper end estimate, but AM Samsam Bakhtiari has grave doubts about Russia's ability to increase its production.  DuncanK posted a very interesting rate of change plot of Russian production down the way.  It might be a good idea to re-post it here).

http://www.energybulletin.net/147.html
Published on 3 May 2004 by Oil & Gas Journal. Archived on 3 May 2004.
World oil production capacity model suggests output peak by 2006-07
by AM Samsam Bakhtiari

Excerpts (regarding Russia):

In the 21st century, Russia has taken over from the North Sea as non-OPEC's new champion. Unlike the North Sea, however, Russia is not a new province but a very mature one. Moreover, it is a region over which the defunct Soviet Union had ridden roughshod, especially during the 1980s (with the battering of the supergiant Samotlor field a case in point).3

During 2003, Russia achieved an average output of 8,460,000 b/d. The latest Wocap base-case scenario for Russia forecasts an oil production plateau of just under 8.5 million b/d during 2004-06.4 Under no Wocap scenario could Russian output edge over the 9 million b/d mark.

This is in stark contrast with many other forecasts, especially those issued by Edinburgh-based consultants Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac), which sees Russia's crude output going from strength to strength before reaching 10.4 million b/d in 2010.5 WoodMac Director Tim Lambert summarized his consultancy's findings on Russia's future oil production: "Russian production has been growing rapidly in recent years, and many observers consider that it should exceed 10 million b/d in 2010. On an unconstrained basisassuming that all required investment was put in placewe believe that production could reach 12 million b/d in 2010 and 2011."6

Both Wocap and WoodMac cannot be right, and undoubtedly one is totally wrong. The question remains which one is wrong.

But the Wocap-WoodMac discrepancy is not the only gap on Russian forecasts. Even in the short term, there is an abyss between the prediction of 2.2% growth in 2004 by Russian experts and the 8.6-10% rise forecasted by international analysts, translating into a difference of 550,000-670,000 b/d by yearend.

However, there is little doubt that Russia will be the oil industry's ultimate supply-side litmust test. And this year's output results might settle the short-term (and maybe even long-term) differences once and for all. And it goes without saying that as fares non-OPEC champion Russia, so will fare the whole of non-OPEC in 2004.

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DuncanK on February 2, 2006 - 9:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
For those who missed it, here's my graph that westexas is referring to:

As I said in the original post, if you extrapolate the last segment of the graph (2004-2005) over the next two years you get decreases in production of about 5% in 2006 (down to about 8.8mbpd) and about 13% in 2007 (down to about 7.8mbpd).

And with the cold temperatures shutting in a lot of oil production (which is highly understandable with high water cuts), this year's decrease does not seem too far-fetched.

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westexas on February 2, 2006 - 10:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And in regard to my "Export Land" model (link below), Russian oil companies have announced cutbacks in oil exports--because of increased domestic demand during the very cold winter this year.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832

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Twilight on February 2, 2006 - 8:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Which speaks volumes to me about the wisdom of markets.
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NC on February 2, 2006 - 9:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Twilight, your analysis mirrors my own.

Bringing facts and logical arguments to that group is a waste of effort.  Every action from them is calculated to gain them their end goal.  I am convinced by their actions that the ends justify any means.  These include ommission, obfuscation, fear, deception, personal attacks, subject changing, false premises, and even outright lies.  You can spend all you time and energy clarifying all these incorrect points only to have the administration shift the argument once again so that you have to start all over without ever making a dent on there direction or focus.

They are very careful (clearly by design) to craft communication so that it is difficult to cite them in an outright lie within a short time period.  Any time span longer than a week gets considered as "under different circumstances" and previous statements are curiously no longer valid in any rebuttal argument.

This behaviour is not usually acceptable between individuals or businesses because it destroys trust in any future dealings.  But for some reason this has become the dominant political model in the U.S. and we allow it to exist at our peril.

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mcgowanjm on February 2, 2006 - 10:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Which speaks volumes on how DC knows exactly where
we are.

Problem-you can only lie for so long until you have to start
believing your own propaganda.

Self Deception, then Confusion and Insanity soon follow.

http://dnr.louisiana.gov/images/conservation-daily-prod-update-location-map.gif

Note from this map that everything east of Katrina's track is now
under water and the majority west to NO is also under water.

From David Gergen on Lou Dobbs yesterday:
170 miles of NO levees have still not been repaired.

A CAT 3 in May will finally be the wake up call.

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Cherenkov on February 2, 2006 - 11:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Twilight is exactly right.

Physics does not care what the monkey king says. It does not care how you vote or what invisible sky being you beg and worship. It does not care what spiffy brand of clothing or cologne or sneaker you wear. It is just the very fabric of existence.

Keep using the oil and it will go away. Use less, for whatever reason, it will last longer. Use none, it sits.

End of discussion.

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