The Oil Drum

(This was probably written close to two years ago, and it looks like Russian oil production is topping out about 5% above his upper end estimate, but AM Samsam Bakhtiari has grave doubts about Russia's ability to increase its production.  DuncanK posted a very interesting rate of change plot of Russian production down the way.  It might be a good idea to re-post it here).

http://www.energybulletin.net/147.html
Published on 3 May 2004 by Oil & Gas Journal. Archived on 3 May 2004.
World oil production capacity model suggests output peak by 2006-07
by AM Samsam Bakhtiari

Excerpts (regarding Russia):

In the 21st century, Russia has taken over from the North Sea as non-OPEC's new champion. Unlike the North Sea, however, Russia is not a new province but a very mature one. Moreover, it is a region over which the defunct Soviet Union had ridden roughshod, especially during the 1980s (with the battering of the supergiant Samotlor field a case in point).3

During 2003, Russia achieved an average output of 8,460,000 b/d. The latest Wocap base-case scenario for Russia forecasts an oil production plateau of just under 8.5 million b/d during 2004-06.4 Under no Wocap scenario could Russian output edge over the 9 million b/d mark.

This is in stark contrast with many other forecasts, especially those issued by Edinburgh-based consultants Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac), which sees Russia's crude output going from strength to strength before reaching 10.4 million b/d in 2010.5 WoodMac Director Tim Lambert summarized his consultancy's findings on Russia's future oil production: "Russian production has been growing rapidly in recent years, and many observers consider that it should exceed 10 million b/d in 2010. On an unconstrained basisassuming that all required investment was put in placewe believe that production could reach 12 million b/d in 2010 and 2011."6

Both Wocap and WoodMac cannot be right, and undoubtedly one is totally wrong. The question remains which one is wrong.

But the Wocap-WoodMac discrepancy is not the only gap on Russian forecasts. Even in the short term, there is an abyss between the prediction of 2.2% growth in 2004 by Russian experts and the 8.6-10% rise forecasted by international analysts, translating into a difference of 550,000-670,000 b/d by yearend.

However, there is little doubt that Russia will be the oil industry's ultimate supply-side litmust test. And this year's output results might settle the short-term (and maybe even long-term) differences once and for all. And it goes without saying that as fares non-OPEC champion Russia, so will fare the whole of non-OPEC in 2004.

Which speaks volumes to me about the wisdom of markets.