For those who missed it, here's my graph that westexas is referring to:

As I said in the original post, if you extrapolate the last segment of the graph (2004-2005) over the next two years you get decreases in production of about 5% in 2006 (down to about 8.8mbpd) and about 13% in 2007 (down to about 7.8mbpd).

And with the cold temperatures shutting in a lot of oil production (which is highly understandable with high water cuts), this year's decrease does not seem too far-fetched.

And in regard to my "Export Land" model (link below), Russian oil companies have announced cutbacks in oil exports--because of increased domestic demand during the very cold winter this year.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832