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96 comments on "Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference"

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Richrd on February 2, 2006 - 9:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Stuart

I'm a farmer and native plant seed collector in Western Washington. Lately I have been discussing the topic of local climate change with a fellow seed collector who lives about 200  miles away on on the east slope of the cascades. We both depend on temperature driven ecological events for timing of seed ripening of common native trees and shrubs.

Over the last 10 years I have noticed that the time of ripening for one species, vine maple has shifted from early to mid September to late August. We have also noted changes in other species.

We have begun to look at maximum/minimum temperature records from a single weather station in each of these two places and only during times that directly effect seed ripening. This is during 6 week periods mid July thru August and for general interest January to mid February.

Our initial look at this data shows dramatic changes in temperatures (5 to 30 degrees, winter and summer) over the 52 year period of record keeping. When we finish our analysis I will be happy to forward this to you for comment.

By cherry picking data, I think will help us to understand direct effects on plant communities, ie summer pollination and ripening and winter seed conditioning in the soil to satisfy seed germination.

Rich Haard

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leeb on February 3, 2006 - 7:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is great info.  Thanks.  I do some seed development in Vt. and would be interested to hear your exxperience.  I think, in general, most folks don't understand how dramatically "small" shifts in weather patterns can effect agriculture. They will eventually though.
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JN2 on February 3, 2006 - 12:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks Rich. I love the fact that people of different backgrounds and experiences read and contribute to this blog.
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Prof. Goose on February 3, 2006 - 1:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
it's what makes it work, JN2...it really is.  There's such diversity of knowledge and opinion here that we can actually learn from each other!
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porsena on February 3, 2006 - 10:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hi Rich.  Just a bit to your north and east, in Edmonton, a good linkage has been shown between warmer winter-spring temperatures and the time of first flowering in quaking aspen, serviceberry, and chokecherry. The time of first bloom of quaking aspen in Edmonton advanced by 26 days over the course of the 20th century.  Temperature accounts for 75% of the variation in the time of first bloom for this species.  The influence of Pacific sea surface temperature and el Nino events can be seen on the air temperature in Edmonton, even though it's 1,000 km from the coast. You might be seeing something similar.  

Changes in flowering times are being tracked across Canada through a volunteer network.

   

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Agric on February 5, 2006 - 10:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Echoed from UK. I'm fairly in touch with our local nature,  spring has got about 3 weeks earlier, autumn about 3 weeks later, over the last 30 years. That change is absolutely massive. There is a tree in my garden which now only has about a 2 month dormancy between leaf fall and leaf bud, it was about 4 months 20 years ago, the poor thing must be frantic.

I'm not talking about occasional years, I'm talking about the norm being shifted, and very noticeably. I have changed my vegetable growing to suit the new norm, as long as I take precautions against late frosts I can be eating some vegetables a month earlier than I could 20 years ago.

There have been detailed studies in the nesting behavior of birds across the whole UK, flowering of wild flowers, too. These unequivocally show 2 to 4 week advances on 20 to 30 years ago for most species. This weekend was the first warmish one this year in my area, the blackbirds and wood pigeons are mating, the robins are paired (and probably mated but too discrete to do in public, LOL). This is a month early. I, and they, were a bit too busy to talk about it today, but we will soon ;)

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