<John Tierney's brilliant energy planThe Oil DrumWednesday's Open Thread>

121 comments on No conclusions, just the January numbers and some concern

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Oil CEO on February 8, 2006 - 3:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Dave - please don't post on Russian reserves. I don't doubt your research and information is good, it's just that the last thing the world needs is anything about reserves.

Please, please, please spend your time, energy, and much needed (and appreciated) intelligence on PRODUCTION.

As you well know, no matter what you say, Al-Naimi will just throw another 100 Billion Barrels your way. The more importance you place on Reserves vs. Production the harder those barrels will feel when they hit you. Do like me. Stay out of the way. Focus your guns on the real target. Kill the head, the body dies. Production is the only thing that matters.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on February 8, 2006 - 3:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Couldn't agree more with you OIL CEO but Russian reserves and their production levels are conflated--one can't post about the one without posting about the other. They are the 2nd biggest producer in the world. Since Westexas has thrown out the gauntlet and says that they are about to crash big time soon--this means that non-OPEC production is crashing soon--I find it necessary to do the post. I would not talk about their reserves without also talking about their near-term (next 5 years to 10 years) production capabilities and beyond.

Even ExxonMobil admits a non-OPEC peak by 2010. Russia represents almost 20% of that daily production. We all really need to get as clear as possible about this. It affects the peak in a big way. It has an effect on Stuart's "long slow squeeze". It is the most important question affecting near-term peak oil conditions I know of (outside the possibility that Saudi Arabian production just might crash as in Matt Simmons' predictions). I believe as of now that their production capabilities are hampered by internal political & economic policies although their actual URR may be quite robust. But this is a different question than saying that they simply have little recoverable oil to produce--which is the position Westexas has taken.

I do appreciate your concerns.

best, Dave

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on February 8, 2006 - 4:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I concur.

As you said - and this is extremey important, people -

"We all really need to get as clear as possible about this."

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Halfin on February 8, 2006 - 5:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Here is the EIA graph of monthly Russian production changes:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Slide12.gif

These are not production levels but changes in production (I'm not sure if they are from the year before or the previous month).

Note that if you had looked at the graph in July 05 (before the last 6 months' readings) and extrapolated forward you would have expected production growth to continue to decline and turn into a production decline (bars going below the axis instead of above). You would probably not have anticipated the turnaround starting in August with production increasing faster again.

It's hard to predict the future, and drawing graphs and extending lines forward is a risky proposition.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Nick Rouse on February 8, 2006 - 6:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It must be growth over a year. If it were month by month growth the total growth would be the sum of the bars which I make about a 24mbpd increase, 28% of world production.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.