The Oil Drum

121 comments on No conclusions, just the January numbers and some concern

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Halfin on February 8, 2006 - 5:52pm

Here is the EIA graph of monthly Russian production changes:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Slide12.gif

These are not production levels but changes in production (I'm not sure if they are from the year before or the previous month).

Note that if you had looked at the graph in July 05 (before the last 6 months' readings) and extrapolated forward you would have expected production growth to continue to decline and turn into a production decline (bars going below the axis instead of above). You would probably not have anticipated the turnaround starting in August with production increasing faster again.

It's hard to predict the future, and drawing graphs and extending lines forward is a risky proposition.

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Nick Rouse on February 8, 2006 - 6:32pm

It must be growth over a year. If it were month by month growth the total growth would be the sum of the bars which I make about a 24mbpd increase, 28% of world production.