<No conclusions, just the January numbers and some concernThe Oil DrumAnd Saudi Arabia had an answer . . .>

148 comments on Wednesday's Open Thread

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LevinK on February 8, 2006 - 4:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
2005 Toyota Echo manual transmission gets 38 Mpg, which in not that far away from the Prius.

If both are driven for 200K miles in their lifetime gas should be $8/per gallon to compensate for the 10K difference in the price tag.

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Nick Rouse on February 8, 2006 - 6:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My diesel engined Smart car from Mercedes Benz, not available in the US I believe, gets 75 miles/US gallon. They have experimented with a hybrid version that does 15% better.
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pianoguy on February 8, 2006 - 8:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
LevinK - You're right strictly with regard to $$$, but there are a lot of differences between Prius and Echo besides mpg. The Prius has much more cargo space, more passenger space, better performance, many more bells and whistles and is much, MUCH safer. (For instance, you can't get stability control on the Echo.) Those features account for most of the $10k. Tax breaks may account for most or even all of the rest. (In Colorado, for instance, you could conceivably get $7k back in state and federal credits.)

For those who want their hybrids cheap as well as fuel-efficient, the Kia Rio hybrid is scheduled to be released late this year. I wonder how it will be received. The economic challenge is that the cost of the hybrid drive is basically the same whether the car is an econobox or mid-priced sedan, so, from the consumer standpoint, the hybrid premium actually increases on cheaper cars: The difference between $11k and $14k (27% increase) is more likely to deter a potential buyer than the difference between $21k and $24k (14% increase).

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LevinK on February 8, 2006 - 11:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ok, I should have picked something closer to its class like the 2005 Corolla (35 mpg, real world).

Actually I think that hybrids are great. I am mostly frustrated that we do not move faster in the direction of plug-ins, which would already represent a qualitevely different step in the right direction.

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Mad Maxout on February 9, 2006 - 9:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I just last week bought a 2001 Kia Rio (4-banger and not hybrid) and after a week of use, I logged 185 miles before loading my second load of fuel onboard. When I bought it I topped off the tank. After the 185 miles, I needed only 6.9 gallons to top the tank again - 26 miles per gallon. Not bad for a 5 year old car. I drive a mix of city and freeway miles, so it's all-around mpg.

The easiest way to measure gas mileage is the way I describe above. At 7 gallons per week, that's one gallon a day. I wonder if it can burn E-85 right. It would be a lot better to feed alcohol distilleries than terrorists! If I used E-85 instead, the terrorists would get only one gallon/week's worth of my "donation".

I bought the car becuse a bus I would ride otherwise started carrying an idiot who hated me for no obvious reason and had no bones about letting me know. Since transit must cater to ANYONE, undesireables get to board buses and trains. Something missed by transit boosters. And in Israel, transit is known to pick up suicide bombers, meaning buses are targets. And trains are too tempting for any smallpoxer.

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Oil CEO on February 9, 2006 - 11:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is an interesting post. I'm not sure how to respond and probably shouldn't - but, will anyway.

If everybody thought the way do(and don't take this personally, because I've read some of your other stuff and am generally impressed) - and I don't know how else to say this - but, we would have hit peak oil 50 years ago.

People do, in fact, make decisions based on a broad variety of factors, some concious, some not. However buying a car to travel alone and burn even more gas because some guy looked at you the wrong way. Boy, that's the spirit. Did you consider shooting him?

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Mad Maxout on February 10, 2006 - 12:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
No, but I figured that an altercation was high probability. The train station is not bristling with cameras to help catch idiots after the fact. The problem is that more people are riding that bus, making competition for what few seats there are - and I'm better at competing for the seats than the bully. Meanwhile the bus agency buys buses with fewer seats(!) making for increased chance of a "bus rage" altercation.

Worse, the bus agency buys buses of such poor quality that you'd think they bought them from Wal-Mart. The back door is so drafty that it can't hold HVAC, meaning it's A/C'd in winter and heated in summer. And the seats are like a La-Z-Boy chair with springs and cushions and a suspension comparable to the axles welded to the frame. It's like riding in a storm chasing plane unless the road is literally smooth as glass.

I was considering a motorcycle before the bully emerged to make the long unpleasant commute that much worse. The buses are found in Chicago's suburbs (pacebus.com) and that agency makes the CTA look good by comparison. Let the bully harass someone else. I don't need a "yellow school bus effect" along with bouncing like a lotto ball every time the bus hits a pebble. I couldn't wait before I took motorcycle lessons once the idiot emerged.

You ask a (very) good question, and that's my answer.

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Oil CEO on February 10, 2006 - 12:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You are funny. But you raise another question. Which are worse - terrorists or idiots?
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step back on February 10, 2006 - 11:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Worst of all are the bean-counting bureaucrats who don't provide enough buses with enough seats for the needs of the people.

The needs of the bureaucrats outweigh the needs of the many --Spock.

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Mad Maxout on February 10, 2006 - 10:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Good question, and I will answer. Terrorists are (fortunately) rare, but idiots are exceedingly common. That includes the bean-counters who ordered the buses to set the stage for the bully idiot and of course the bully idiot who drove me to drive. Idiots incluse rick idiots like Steve Fossett who with his money bought an "experimental" plane to joyride around the world AND purposely overshoot just to get in the world record book. I get one consolation: Steve Fossett while "driving" over India encountered heavy turbulence, so he had a chance to expierence what it's like to ride a PACE Bus. Just like me, as he shook in his "drivers seat" like I would in an ordinary seat.

Fun note. I occasionally do Flight Simulator and always had some interest in aviation, though for non-noble reasons. Due to this interest, I often mix aviation and automotive stuff together. (like a "load of fuel" and "tank of gas") I do see a terror danger in DISGRUNTLED PILOTS becuse they are well-trained (and expierenced) who could, in theory, pop a copilot then put the flaps back up as the plane rolls to barely take off to hit the airline headquarters building a la 9/11. This would take only seconds and be unstoppable and only take a patient pilot to fly out of the wrong airport on the wrong runway. (only obvious to a flight sim player)

Since idiots are way more common than terrorists, this is a bigger hazard all around. We can see idiots as we drive. The "disgruntled pilot" hazard has precedent with an EgyptAir pilot and of course the disgruntled postal workers, and suicide gunmen unconnected with any terrorist group. Idiots become "independant operatives".

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Oil CEO on February 11, 2006 - 1:41am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I apologize. I underestimated you. What I thought was funny is actually a certain profound realism. BTW, I don't know where you came up with your name, but the first 10 minutes of (the original)Mad Max is some of the best film-making (and driving)ever.
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tom deplume on February 10, 2006 - 3:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Two points
I bought a Kia Sephia in '99 and get similar mpg.
Did you complain to the transit systems management about the problem passenger?  The system I worked for could ban passengers who were repeatedly causing trouble. ADA does not protect trouble makers.
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Mad Maxout on February 10, 2006 - 10:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Good question with answer. I was not patient to deal with idiots in management when I decided to buy and use a car. Why? Becuse my entire expierence with authorities and bullies dictates that they will ignore me. The ONLY effective strategy I ever found was to avoid a bully, seemingly by any means necessary short of violence. (violence is counter-productive as it exposes you to worse bullies!)

The alternative to the bully was to wait for the next bus which would be the EXACT same vehicle, but with worse crowding. I have gone to a PACE public hearing before this problem, knowing that things wouldn't change. I spoke up about the other problems (not bully-related) and noted I only had a chance to perform as a comedian. Not good. The 3 execs/stooges are nearly unreachable - certainly without a car. (ironic, eh?)

The problem with the suburban bus system is that the management knows that the ONLY alternative is to do what I did, drive. The bully merely was that tipping point that got me to say "F%&k it" and proceed to drive. My conclusion is that mass transit and our suburbs are a very poor match, on a par with drinking and driving. :(

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mikey on February 10, 2006 - 10:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
here's a story about crazy people on buses.

i was visiting L.A. a few years ago for a conference. i had taken super shuttle from the airport on arriving, but during my stay i figured out that for the return trip i could take a bus from near my hotel to the airport for real cheap. i didn't really need to save the money (was getting reimbursed anyway) but felt inclined to take the bus anyway. (i was poor years ago and certain habits linger.)

but at dinner w/ a bunch of folks somehow this came up and a guy there urged me not to do it. he said he'd lived in L.A. for like twenty years and could tell me with authority that the buses were a bad situation. crazy people, dirty, smelly, scarey people. he said, it's not like in the movie "speed" where the bus driver knows people by name and everyone is nice and clean cut and normal. he was quite clear about the risks of taking the bus and seemed to know what he was talking about.

okay so i figured i'd do it anyway. smelly people, big deal, right? so i took the bus to the airport on the morning of my return.

guess what? everyone on there was well dressed, freshly shampooed, normal, and not crazy. the bus driver knew people by name, and even had a discussion with one regular passenger about another who hadn't been seen lately. i mean, i figured the guy who warned me might have been exaggerating a little, but to find out that he was just totally, utterly wrong in every detail -- that was surprise!

the funny thing was, he didn't actually take the bus (he told me). he just "knew" these things from living in L.A.

(not casting doubt on your particular bully story.)

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Mad Maxout on February 13, 2006 - 11:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ironically, it was the very familiarity of the same people on the Pace bus each day, and all low-income enough to be deterred from driving. While high-income yuppie crowds can harbour bullies (they become managers), lower income groups have their share. One just started using the bus and after a month of the stupidity, I had to act.

Bullies aside, the suburban bus system by Chicago could use a lot of improvement. But with the economics being like a monopoly with a greatly costlier alternative, it is shoddy at best - and non-existent as the norm.

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tappel on February 9, 2006 - 2:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My 1985 model Suzuki SA-310 (sold as Chevrolet Sprint and Pontiac Firefly in the US) gets 5 litres per 100 km in the summertime on longer road trips at less than highway speed (that's about 47 mpg). If i push the pedal to the metal on highways the consumption rises to 7 litres per 100 km (33 mpg). The average consumption in my use (mostly long trips at sub-highway speed and shorter distance driving within the city I live in) is less than 6 litres per 100 km (more than 39 miles per gallon).

I've grown fond of this little car, although it's already started to fall apart so badly that I'm going to have to get rid of it before the next autumn. It irritates me a lot when I have to fix it (I have the repair manual for it and some skills, but the spare parts cost quite a lot money), but every time I fill the tank I remember why I love that car.

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vtpeaknik on February 9, 2006 - 12:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My 2003 echo with automatic transmission gets up to 40 mpg (long trips at moderate - less than highway - speeds).  Worst I ever got (short trips in winter) is about 32.  I got an automatic because a long search for a manual specimen on the used market in the NE USA came up empty.  They don't sell new ones (2004+) here any more.  Why?  Perhaps not enough of a profit?  The Echo is/was Toyota's best-kept secret.

If both (Echo and Prius) are driven for 200K miles in their lifetime gas should be $8/per gallon to compensate for the 10K difference in the price tag.

- not even then?  If I compute that using 38 mpg vs 45 mpg I get about $12.  Also, if oil got more expensive, the purchase-price difference would get bigger, since it costs energy to make the stuff.  The real question is: does the hybrid pay for its energy of manufacturing, relative to the best we can do with non-hybrid technology.  Just the battery in the Prius is about $4000, and I wonder how long it'll last - if you need to replace it before those 200,000 miles are done, add that to the cost difference...  And that's the relatively small battery that has not much plug-in utility.

If we want to save fuel, we need to accept the concept of driving (or riding) smaller, lighter vehicles.  Yes if you get hit by a large truck you're in trouble.  That's true in an SUV too.  So should we all drive Sherman tanks?  Alternatives include: lower speed limits, and less driving to reduce risk.  Even with large vehicles, 100 people die on an average day in accidents in the US, and many many more are injured.  If that many died in some other activity we'd regulate it down to nothing, but car-driving is the national addiction and we repress the risk in our minds.  The same over-protective parents that won't leave a 15-year-old home alone for an hour, or let him/her walk half a mile, will give him/her the keys to the car at 16.  This while the stats show that car accidents are the biggest risk to teens, by far.

Question to hybrid owners: how well does the real-time MPG display match the gold standard: the comutation based on the odometer and the gallons bought at the pump?

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LevinK on February 9, 2006 - 12:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I used 50 mpg for Prius hence the difference (the average between 45 in winter and 55 in summer).

I don't fully agree with you about hybrids vs small cars. First I don't see why don't we go in both directions in the same time (plus mass transit as a third direction).

Second and more important, hybrids are the first step to electric transportation. IMO, if there is a solution to our oil problem, it will go through scrapping those 15% efficient ICEs in the next several decades.

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Slippery Slope on February 9, 2006 - 4:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
On my Prius commute, I reset the real-time MPG so as to have a new goal each day, and have calculated the MPG per tank only a few times.  However on the prius-chat fuel economy forum, the question has arisen.  Here is a sample:

I compare lifetime mileage (miles driven divided by total fuel pumped into the tank) and also guage mileage on the MFD. For the last 4,500 miles the calculated mpg is 1.2 mpg better than the average of the guage mpg.

http://priuschat.com/index.php?showtopic=9624&hl=mpg+display

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sjruckle on February 10, 2006 - 4:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I work at Toyota and we hear things like this all the time from customers. Unfortunately, the fuel tank in the prius isn't a rigid tank like most vehicles. Instead, it's a flexible bladder inside a protective shell. The size of the bladder (and therefore it's capacity) is variable, so you can't calculate mpg by miles driven divided by how much fuel you put in the car. I'd think that using "lifetime mpg" would eliminate most errors, but maybe he lives in a cold climate or something.

A short suggestion: Don't run your prius out of fuel. The computer freaks out and needs to be recalibrated at a dealer, and it isn't covered under warranty.

One last thing: The terrain you drive in has a very large effect on a prius' mpg. Here in Southern California we have a lot of mountains. People here typically get 10-20 percent less mpg than customers on the East coast.

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billp on February 10, 2006 - 9:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
http://www.prosefights.org/msd/msd.htm#outofgas
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