The Oil Drum | EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2006

104 comments on EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2006

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Freddy Hutter on February 16, 2006 - 5:33pm

First, this is not my outlook. It is a compilation of the world's 11 best modelers. On Christmas Day, Colin Campbell reviewed the year's data and moved his conventional production peak to 2005 from 2004. Again. And he has increased his "all liquids" production peak to 86-mbd from 85. Again. In November, Rembrands Koppelaar reviewed all the current data for one of the most comprehensive outlooks (incl refining capacity component) and forecast a 92.4-mbd peak ahead of us.

Yet pundits here ignore the best Peakist predictions and dwell on their navel gazing and ad nauseum posts that we are post peak. As if our friends from Ireland and the Netherlands had somehow joined "the dark side".

So yes, Bio, it is mere whining.

In 1991, Lynch said we be at 81-mbd in 2005. It was indeed 84. IEA was next best with its 1996 forecast of 80-mbd for 2005. And EIA (aka DOE) saw 79-mbd coming back in 1997.

All the while Campbell foresaw 55-mbd in '91 and upped it to 64 in 1997.

In this our third year of publishing the Scenarios, we continue to see the optimists coming down and the Peakist revising upwards. And IEA's middle-of-the-road outlook continues to represent the likely outcome...

Extremists at both ends of the spectrum face gnashing of teeth each year end. We have two sets of whiners...

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Freddy Hutter on February 16, 2006 - 6:34pm

Apologies to followers of Jean Leherrere of France and his excellent Hubbert type modeling. It was excluded above and his 2005 Outlook forecasts an 87.7-mbd peak in 2014.

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BioDiesel on February 17, 2006 - 2:32am

What is more extreme?

Saying April was peak, like the "whiners" on TOD or that production will continue to rise to 120 million (or whatever number) in some far off date?

We both know the answer.

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Oil CEO on February 17, 2006 - 3:01am

Freddy, longterm production moves at an annualized rate of between 1.1% and 2.2%. It doesn't take any forecasting skill past 4th grade math to figure this out. Notice how slim this window is. What exactly is the mystery that you are so good at deciphering?

The worry here is that this rate cannot be maintained. The evidence is growing that it cannot.

While I still think your input is needed, it must be noted that the reason some people here think you are a complete douchebag is that you never bring any evidence to the table suggesting the opposite.

Nobody cares about trendlines. I know. I actually follow them. Try providing some indicators that we can continue "producing" oil at 1 or 2 million barrels per day more than the year before for the next few years. Dotted lines on a chart mean nothing.

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Stuart Staniford on February 17, 2006 - 5:03am

Skip the personal insults please - thanks.

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104 comments on EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2006

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