Hello JD,

Thxs for responding.  I drive 'old blue', my 1995 4.3 liter v-6 GMC shortbed standard cab pickup with approx. 120,000 miles on it.  I have never had sufficient funds to own a new vehicle.  I am a 'dead ringer' for Osama Bin Laden: 6'5" and 185 lbs, scraggly beard, and even more ugly-- don't try to kidnap me trying to get the $50 million in reward money, my friends jokingly claim first dibs if they ever find me passed out drunk--LOL!  My long legs preclude me from comfortably fitting in many cars, but a pickup allows sufficient room so my knees are not hitting the dash, or my left leg is not pinned between the steering wheel and door.

I did not get my first vehicle until I was nearly 20 years old [nearly 51 now]--  had no problem with my long legs of pedaling over forty miles a day to work and school here in Phx [had a 175 customer paper-route for five years from 11-16].  It would probably kill me now if I had to do that again.

Got my first used pickup [1969 GMC v-6] just in time for the '73 energy crunch a short time later.  Remember waiting hours in a gas-line to fillup my tank.  That night some bastard took a pipewrench to my locking gascap and siphoned out my tank.  No fun driving around a potentially huge Molotov cocktail with a rag stuffed into my gastank fillerneck, a mere couple of feet from my head, until I could get scrape up the cash to get it repaired.

Ever since the 70s energy crunch, I have been a gas-conserving turtledriver--not a rabbit-racer.  In fact, I am so good at hitting intersections in the 'green' that my pickup is still on the original brakes!

I first found out about Peakoil and Dieoff in summer of '03, so I consider myself a relative newbie.  Changed my Life, as I am sure you will all agree.  Fortunately, Phx is an easy place to conserve home energy-- we never turn on the heat, but lightly bundle up.  During the summer, we run a swamp cooler, which uses a fraction of the energy of an air-conditioning unit.  My neighbors think I am nuts when I bring up Peakoil and Dieoff--they burn all the energy they can afford, porch lights burning all night and that sort of thing.

Spend a lot of time emailing govt orgs and influential others energy saving ideas and appeals for them to study Dieoff.com-- never get a reply-- I think they have a preferential agenda to make sure they survive.  Kunstler, among others luminaries, predicts the Southwest to become mostly ghost towns postPeak--I am inclined to agree-- present drought is 120+ days without rain.  I often wonder how Oregon and Washington will handle a thirty million people migration influx when Phx, Tucson, LA, San Diego, and hundreds of smaller cities start heading north.  My guess is a postPeak civil war. Time will tell.  I am the primary caregiver for my ailing mother--cannot leave until she is gone, but I hope she lives forever.

Got a nice 18-speed bicycle set up with baskets all around if a sudden energy crunch hits and I have to pedal-- people call it the Pee-Wee Herman bike, but hopefully it is so funky that no kid will want to steal it postPeak.  It is an oversize frame and the seat is really high [I am tall, remember?]-- most kids will bust their balls on the crossframe trying to steal it.  Pedaling can be done year round in Phx if you really tank up on water during the summer to prevent dehydration.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

You know, Bob, I'm up here in western Colorado, on an old family ranch, and my chief concern is the four million people in the sprawl zones along the Front Range who might decide all of our apple orchards and cattle pastures might be a good place to hang out if the going gets tough.

Four years ago I read about Bush's new house in Crawford -- state-of-the-art energy-independent, year-round water cisterns, solar-powered, the whole bit.

It confused me at the time; but now I understand. He definitely plans to be part of the wolfpack.

Hello Don,

Thxs for responding.  Good for you, living on a ranch-- you automatically get more eco-support from Nature than 99% of us.  This eco-buffer will be crucial in the years ahead, I hope you have a good hand-pumpable waterwell or stream on your property.

Water skirmishes with shootings were common out west a hundred years ago--legislators and lawyers took over the battle, but Peakoil and Overshoot will bring back the old ways with a vengeance.  Most people have no idea that most water is PUMPED UPHILL [water follows money] to supply their taps, this will end when the energy is gone.  Phx uses an estimated 20% of its total energy for water and sewer systems: CAP water is pumped 1300ft uphill so it will flow in canals to Phx and Tucson.  I tell people to carry a five gallon water jug a couple of miles to get an idea of how much energy is required.

Obviously, water is crucial to Life--WTSHTF all Hell will break loose-- it is a key inflection point for violence to break out.  Google Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Sudan to get a future taste of what insufficient water means to people and wildlife. Truly Sad.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Phoenix is an extreme example.  Very few cities depend so heavily on such distant water cources (although Las Vegas is close).  NYC uses water that flows downhill and has water pressure close to sea level by the time it gets there.  New Orleans also runs water downhill from the Mississippi River.

Rural areas & small towns will be hit by the problems of transportation in a less than total collapse society.  In that case (less than total collapse) New Orleans (and St. Louis, Memphis and other river & rail cities) will do well.  We have great rail connections (6 of 7 large North American railroads come to New Orleans), barge connections (Mississippi River & Intracoastal Canal) and  a seaport.  Compact and low oil use by original design.  Nearby seafood and land that could be farmed again.  Sugarcane that can grow without fertilizer, and remnant oil & gas production.

OTOH, living 40 miles from the nearest WalMart & General Supply store can be quite a handicap for many ranchers and farmers with high enough fuel costs.  Supplying electricity , telephone & fuel to dispersed rural communities will become more expensive. Perhaps technology (over the horizon cell phones with semi-broadband internet bandwidth) can solve the telecommunications problem.  Once a month trips to town may become more common.

My impression is that most rural & small town residents live on what my grandfather called "pet farms" and commute long distances to jobs elsewhere.

I agree Phx, Vegas, La, etc are extreme examples.  At crunch time, the milgov will resort to programs as evidenced by this recently released US Army military document 210-35 "Civilian Inmate Labor Program" linked here:

http://www.army.mil/usapa/epubs/pdf/r210_35.pdf

It is amazing the level of disconnect within our society: people live in a Disneyland mindset while the elites are moving full-speed ahead for the coming cull.  It blows my mind that simple denial keeps Dieoff.com from being the numero uno website in the world.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

I often wonder how Oregon and Washington will handle a thirty million people migration influx when Phx, Tucson, LA, San Diego, and hundreds of smaller cities start heading north.
 
Now that's depressing.  I'm already contemplating my move back to Oregon from one of the other nonsustainable monstrosities, i.e. Atlanta.
Hello Liz,

I am a hardcore Doomer who believes in the fast-crash, but I hope I am wrong, and we can get a slow decline.  What worries me most about Peakoil is the effect it will have upon our food and water.  People can quickly scale up to pedaling a bicycle twenty or thirty miles a day if they really have go that distance to support their families, but the real future trick will be having sufficient food and water.  I don't think there is any solution.

If I was a farmer who knew about Peakoil and I had no mortgage on my land-- I would be drastically changing my methods and crops so that I could be self-sustainable as possible.  For example, if I owned 5,000 acres that would be normally a corn crop, I probably would immediately change 2000 acres over to be woodland and natural habitat so that I would have a future source of firewood, nut trees, berry plants, and wildlife to hunt.  Probably another 2000 acres so I could pasture just a few oxen, horses, dairy cattle, pigs, sheep, etc, and a large family garden.  Then maybe the last 1000 acres to growing commercial corn or soybeans, but shrinking this amount every year, so that I could grow cotton exclusively for myself.

Now if every farmer starts doing this, pretty damn quickly you have major food shortages in the cities and towns.  Why would the farmers do this?  As oil prices escalate upwards, the farmer won't be able to afford the energy to grow the usual 5,000 acres anyhow, so he might just as well put his efforts into his own survival using his labor and permiculture techniques.  Too bad for the rest of us.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

I have a feeling that any farmer who tried to go down that route would probably get the Robert Mugabe treatment sooner or later. Even if the government didn't chose that option, how could a farmer defend 5000 acres from desperate people anyway?
Your probably correct in that the farmer would not be able to defend his land-- ERoVI > ERoEI is going to be a huge problem [ERoVI = Energy Returned on Violence Invested].  The old story of rape, pillage, and plunder is a successful short-term strategy, but is disasterous for the long term.  No disputing that it reduces headcount though.

That is the main reason why I think we will have a fast crash-- to minimize opportunities for ERoVI.  My feeling is at crunch time: most urban and suburban dwellers will be forced to die n place, instead of being allowed to roam the countryside killing the farmers, then looting for whatever food they can find.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Actually, that's about the only good thing I could say about martial law. They'll close the Eisenhower Tunnel to protect the rich in Vail, Eagle and Aspen. (And our little farm, by being in the right place.)

Our ranch is only 120 acres, irrigated. We raise high-value registered Angus, so we can survive on sirloins if we have to.

We're already going permaculture, planting a woodlot, adding PV panels for a kind of parallel future if it comes to it. We've also formed a quiet coalition with other farmers and neighbors who understand what's coming. We have a barter system in place.

We have rich, volcanic soils and gravity-fed water systems. I do worry that the irrigation water might be requisitioned to try to keep the sunbelt sprawl afloat, but we also have springs and creeks here.

I don't know if anyone beside the oligarchs will really get through a die-off, but we're organized and we're going to try.

Besides PV, you have "gravity feed streams".  They make microhydro as small as 100 watts !

What volumes of water and what falls (vertical distance) might be harnessed by putting into a pipe to make some hydropower ?

Make $ today, and keep LED lights and some motors going "later".