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Actually, not quite a direct reply, but Dave's post was so long (you should have resisted, respectfully speaking), that I didn't want to get buried 150 lines below.
I seriously suggest the governor, and anyone not skeptical of his claims, go to the home page of the Northern Plains Resource Council, out of Billings, at www.northernplains.org, and download their PDF "Old, dirty and insecure" near the bottom of the homepage.
Some talking points from it:
After that comes an excellent reference chart noting just how much water would be needed for a one million barrel/day of oil offset industry and 20.000 and 80,000 barrel/day individual plants. (which is of modest size).
One million bpd of Fischer-Tropsch industry would require half again as much water as the entire Tongue River annual flow.
I agree with your comments.
Re: "excellent reference chart noting just how much water would be needed for a one million barrel/day of oil offset industry and 20.000 and 80,000 barrel/day individual plants."
Excellent point. The same water problems apply to coal bed methane and so-called "tight gas" recovery here in the Rocky Mountain regions out west where I live. Water supplies here depend on winter snowfall and depleting deep water aquifers is not a good idea. Since climate change is bound to dry out these regions (there will be no operating ski areas in 20 years), then it seems crazy to think that large-scale oil & natural gas operations requiring large amounts of water could ever work here in the time-frame we care about (next 5 to 15 years).
best, Dave
If you don't do it the right way then others will do it the cheap way. The smog and the smells will return.
Sadly, that's what's showing in my crystal ball. And I don't like it. Not one bit.
The cynic in me sees us burning through every possible energy source at the max sustained rate, consequences be damned.
But the hopeful dreamer part wants to help avoid that future. Y'all keep up the excellent posting around coal, GW, production data, etc. As I try to influence those around me, TOD is a significant source of hard, cold data.
So.. look again in that crystal ball; I think you will see this:
not this:
Oceans are producing million times as much vapor as all human activities combined. It would be interesting though to see how GW plays on this - we can expect with rising temperatures the air humidity to grow producing a positive feedback. On the other hand the water cycle (evaporation -> precipitation) will intensify, taking away some of the energy absorbed by the oceans thus cooling them off. I have to check but probably the total efect would be neutral because it is absent in the climatographic models I've seen.
Maybe Kunstler would turn out being right that it is mostly Suburbia to blame for our worries.
Two possibilities: build a water pipeline from the East/North to the west; or ship the coal to where it will be used, and FT it there.
Any comments? Is this feasible?
Considering how much fresh water would be wasted maybe it would be economically and enviromentally better decision to build a pipeline to deliver it... just a wild idea :)
The down side of the high moisture content is you have to heat up all that water along with the coal to very high temperatures, which is inefficient and costly. You also need a lot more water for cooling.
We are a very long way from the ocean here in Montana. It's hard to judge since there are no plants in the world like what is being proposed, but it's safe to say this is an economically marginal prospect, even at a lot higher than $35 or $40 a barrel or whatever the going rate on guesses about breakeven price is nowadays.
We have no where near the extra capacity in our existing mines you'd need to supply the first plant, and we'd need tons of infrastructure (railroads, roads, hospitals, jails, towns, apartments, trailer courts, municipal water systems, drug treatment centers) for it/them, too.
Then you've gotta have a pipeline and compressors to send the CO2 wherever it is you're going to sequester it.
Can't tell you if you'd have to have a desalinization plant. With or without that, I think I'd rather buy people hybrid cars with the several hundred billion you'd need to build enough plants to replace a significant percentage of foreign oil.
If there's some left over we could spread some cellulosic ethanol plants and a couple of biodiesel plants around Eastern Montana (1/10th the investment cost per daily barrel of capacity) in amongst the windmills. That's more appropriate to the scale of economic development we need.
Western coal in general is lower sulfur than some of the Midwestern and Eastern coals, though I have not checked the numbers (they are in the EIA data files).
We have devoted some column feet to discussing how the natural gas supply in the United States is depleting. Thus the option of a Gas-to-liquid conversion may not be realistic. Further, some of the countries abroad that have been considering this have decided not to.
Bear in mind that the oil shortage will not be solved by a single silver bullet, but rather by a whole variety of bb's - of which this could well be one - all contributing their portion.
The opponent was pushing biofuel, and if I remember, the Governor pointed out that this would produce much less oil than his choice.
It is correct that the oil shortage will not be solved by a single silver bullet. Beyond efficiency (mileage investments e.g. hybrids), the question becomes what is the best investment that will be fastest, cleanest, cheapest. Montanans are also interested in something that maximizes economic benefits to local people.
Using these criteria biofuels are a better fit than F-T diesel. The Governor said that if the U.S. diverted our food crop exports, it would only replace 15% of our liquid fuel needs. However, biofuels can be produced from non-feed crops, and from perennials (e.g. switchgrass) that can be grown on acres not suitable for row crops like corn, soybeans and wheat.
The unstated assumption was that there are not more severe obstacles to producing 5% or 15% of our liquid fuel needs from coal. As you can see here, the obstacles are environmental, economic, and physical.