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"No," said Samuel, "but you can make a very fast pig."
- John Steinbeck, East of Eden
or..
Ad Astra, per Alia Porci
'To the stars, on the wings of a pig'
How do other people feel about that ... is the timeframe right, is the pace right?
I'm also not sure what is "turned around" and what is "status quo" in this situation. The ethanol subsidies, certainly, go back years. CAFE as an institution goes back years.
We need to rapidly adopt the mindset of 'No Thanks--I like Empty Tanks' in the automotive industry by the building of small one person commuter cars powered by 200cc motors, motorized bicycles, and other measures to instantly jackup the national mpg average providing an energy reserve than can be shifted to build walkable cities and intra-city rail. I feel our leaders are not sufficiently engaged to assert pro-active changes; just leaving things to the market will be woefuly insufficient to mitigate declining net energy. Lack of national leadership will result in ERoVI [Violence Invested]> ERoEI [cooperative Powerdown].
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
That way there would be fewer cars and much more public transportation.
We need to make the personal automobile as common as the private (personal) jet.
Cars are killing America. Cars are killing the Earth. We need to move AWAY from the car, not towards it.
I feel America will not have the time and resources for a massive urban transport infrastructure and the build out time is too long. If the goal is walkable infrastructure with intense local permiculture, the emphasis on bicycling from the city to the railhead to daily labor in the fields is the best way to achieve this. The logical interrim step is minimize transport weight requirements to save the maximum energy. A sixty pound motorized bicycle or a 400 lb quad ATV will ALWAYS be less than any mass-transit design and offer much greater energy savings, geographic access, and scheduling flexibility. In short, the ERoEI is much higher.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Just a little more. I agree with your sentiment that cars are killing us, I would prefer bicycles too, but we have to offer a bridging transport mechanism of motorcycles and Quads for those with a bad sense of balance and/or long commute distances. The Japanese are already years ahead of Detroit, they have been manufacturing bicycle motors, small motorcycles, and quads for decades. The quads are currently optimized for off-road activity, but minor engineering changes would quickly enhance street legal usage. Motorized bicycles get near 300 mpg.
I have ridden motorcycles for years in all kinds of weather conditions, people just need to reset their expectations of what transport should be. A quad can cover a remarkable distance on very little fuel-- you just dress appropriately for the weather. People need to give up on the idea of a comfortably heated or AC cocoon because the required poundage is a waste of energy. Put on a helmet for safety and you are good to go. Pull a small trailer if you need to haul the kids or a larger load.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I lived in Phoenix for 2-3 years. I understand where you are coming from. There are many bikers in Phoenix.
Bikes are not tenable in Phoenix. Not for the masses. It gets to be 115 degrees during the day, it's probably hotter on I-17. Plus the safety issues. Seatbelts save lives and motorcycles don't even have them.
My preferred mode of transportation is the shoe. They sell for about $50 a pair and are really reliable. Sometimes a shoelace breaks, and thats a bummer, but I can usually make it to a local drugstore and get a replacement.
Nothing wrong with walking [it does burn calories], but you are not maximizing your personal thermo-efficiency potential-- this will be a life or death issue in the future when there is very little food and clean water to go around. A good bicycle with baskets will be worth its weight in gold.
When gas prices start spiraling really high, people will not have any choice but to pedal or go for small motorized vehicles. The heat is uncomfortable, but not a problem if you stay adequately hydrated, slow down your pedal rate, and take frequent breaks. On the bright side, we never have to shovel the sunshine! Come crunch time, the obese will slim down-- they will have no other choice. Pedaling is still much more time and energy efficient than walking. Lots more fun too. Here is a good link:
http://tinyurl.com/bf4tg
Excerpt:
--------------
Man, unaided by any tool, gets around quite efficiently. He carries one gram of his weight over a kilometer in ten minutes by expending 0.75 calories. Man on his feet is thermodynamically more efficient than any motorized vehicle and most animals. For his weight, he performs more work in locomotion than rats or oxen, less than horses or sturgeon. At this rate of efficiency man settled the world and made its history. At this rate peasant societies spend less than 5 per cent and nomads less than 8 per cent of their respective social time budgets outside the home or the encampment.
Man on a bicycle can go three or four times faster than the pedestrian, but uses five times less energy in the process. He carries one gram of his weight over a kilometer of flat road at an expense of only 0.15 calories. The bicycle is the perfect transducer to match man's metabolic energy to the impedance of locomotion. Equipped with this tool, man outstrips the efficiency of not only all machines but all other animals as well.
----------------------
Now you understand why I earlier typed why a good bicycle with baskets will be worth its weight in gold.
Unfortunately, the Zimbabweans did not have a Powerdown Plan and are paying heavily for it now. The lack of planning for transport alternatives has made bicycle demand one of the leading causes of inflation:
http://tinyurl.com/pphhs
Excerpt:
------------
Inflation in Zimbabwe soared to 613% in January, the state Central Statistical Office said on Tuesday. The highest price increases recorded during the year were for postal services, up 3,000%, bicycles, 2,687%, and medicines, 1,367%.
------------
Just imagine what the bicycle theft rate must be-- I bet an owner never lets the bike be out of his sight. Having a bicycle is now a life or death issue in Zimbabwe--I bet people are killed over bicycles. Sad.
If a Zimbabwean is desperately scavenging for food by purely walking: he/she might be burning more calories than they harvest-- they are only hastening their starvation.
I understand your safety concern about no seatbelts on bicycles & motorcycles & quads, but in a world of declining net energy we will not be able to afford many 'safety luxuries'. For example: the simple act of adjusting the house thermostat is much safer than the future swinging of an axe for hours on end to generate the same amount of equivalent heat in firewood. We just need to mentally adjust to a more dangerous existence. Such will be postPeak life, better get used to it.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Some people have a crappy sense of balance, which makes motorcycle use more hazardous. I took a motorcycle class last year but lack of enough practice meant that I flunked the riding test. :( So, some people will need a non-balancing vehicle to use.
I found the most powerful electric bike I could buy for $500 last summer. But it just crawled up the steep hills here in Colorado, and the town cop was giving me the evil eye. (He rides a Harley.)
So I bought a Yamaha 125 street cruiser. It gets about 90 mpg, is fun to ride and gets me down to the local coffee shop where I can argue with the cowboys about peak oil. They all drive Dodge Ram pickups.
I am no expert, but my guess is that because of the batteries, the embedded energy in an electric scooter is much higher than an equivalent small motorcycle. The energy losses through the batteries is probably much higher than the energy losses through the gas motor on a pure HP conversion basis,too. After riding in the cold Colorado temps, a toasty little motor is much better for warming your hands on anyway. Enjoy your knees in the breeze, and keep the shiny side up! Thxs for responding.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
http://www.electricbikessys.com/motor.htm
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2006/02/28/we-are-all-killers/
From the link:
In researching my book about how we might achieve a 90% cut in carbon emissions by 2030, I have been discovering, greatly to my surprise, that every other source of global warming can be reduced or replaced to that degree without a serious reduction in our freedoms.
I just read the Light-Rail proposal by Alan from big easy (right??).. and was wondering if either of you have the caloric usage numbers for Walking, Bicycling, Car (compact&SUV) , Bus, Subway/Trolley, Pass Train, JumboJet Pass Flight. That's a 'Hockey Stick' Graph that I think would make a great poster for People to visualise their energy footprint and get a glimpse of how to really conserve energy.
Bob
I know what most of us here want and think about improvements measured with some tiny percents per year, but IMO this is just the beginning. I think we need some more patience, the energy awareness movement is just starting to pick up. In just several years imposing real measures will become possible.
I think you are not fair. In recent years all that has been done regarding efficiency is just talk, talk talk. This is the first concrete proposal that resembles a plan, and that would be definately acceptable for the parties envolved.
It is much better than empty promises like hydrogen economy by 2050 and has all the chances of becoming true. If we face it, the public would never accept a gas tax in any form (esepcially with rising gas prices), but a rising tax for SUVs via CAFE can very well do.
"In September 1991, Nebraska's governor asked other governors interested in creating a group devoted to the promotion and increased use of ethanol to join him in Lincoln, Nebraska. From that meeting, the Governors' Ethanol Coalition emerged. Membership in the Coalition doubled from nine to 19 states during the first year. Membership as of January 2006 stands at 32 states with international representatives from Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Sweden and Thailand."
http://www.ethanol-gec.org/aboutus/histry.htm
That's progress, and I totally approve of progress ... but I really need a better feel for how that progress (and focus on ethanol) fits with our possible future(s).
"The US Congress established CAFE standards in 1975, largely in response to the oil embargo of 1973. Gasoline prices skyrocketed and the United States was caught flat on its feet. Cars and light trucks were heavy and inefficient, with cars averaging 13.5 mpg and trucks averaging 11.6 mpg. Congress established a phase-in of new fuel economy standards that brought cars up to 27.5 mpg, but delegated the responsibility of setting standards for light trucks, now set at 20.7 mpg, to the Department of Transportation (DOT)."
- more here
What we will do is another matter. It will probably look an awful lot like nothing - until it's squeeze time.
The elephant is a mere stride from the cliff and if it doesn't f*cking turn round it is doomed.
I find the speech philosophically, morally and practically inadequate. Perhaps Barack doesn't understand yet, perhaps he has perhaps wisely opted for Stuart's pragmatic philosophy. My advice (which is often wrong, LOL): the one who is brave enough to tell the truth before it is widely known will reap the political rewards. Those that have hedged, like Barack in this speech, will be forgotten.
Barack's previous speeches (that I'm aware of) have been relatively impressive for a US politician, even had some decent policy content, LOL, but this one has bottled out.