<Getting gas from CrudeThe Oil DrumPolar ice cap>
<Nuclear BritainThe Oil Drum: EuropeParliament Debates Gas Situation>

82 comments on Gas Emergency Looms

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

PhilM on March 14, 2006 - 6:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I have not seen this 90% probability? Source?
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 7:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well... don't remember exactly where, as I said above.  I'm, looking for it.  It appears to be of the same origin as the excerpts appearing here,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/gulf_stream.shtml

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 7:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I believe it was from a climate model that has been run by the MET Office itself.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 7:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Found the 1963 winter story.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/devon/weather/the_big_freeze.shtml

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 7:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
GOT IT,

OK. Would you believe "50% in the next 100"??  And a "low" probability in the next 20.  What's low?  I don't know.  If its 1 out of 2 in the next 100, couldn't it easily be 1 in 4 in the next 20?  Sounds high to me in any case, especially if  you consider the Gulf of Mexico just experienced a supposedly 500 year wave height.  And, the a typical model of storm frequency of return, it does not say that it CAN'T happen in ANY particular year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/bigchilltrans.shtml

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 8:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If these things follow a line plot of Probability on the log of Time, it is 25% chance in the next 10 years.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.