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67 comments on National Hurricane Center and the Likelihood of Hurricanes

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Dave Cohen on March 14, 2006 - 9:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
There is a major disconnect in communications between the NHC and the climate change people. In fact, not only do they not talk much with each other, they take potshots at each other on the various news sources I've seen or listened to.

Consider who is looking right and who is looking wrong....

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is positive and there is a strong historical correlation between increased hurricane activity and the NAO in its current state. Combine that with the SST's and I'd say there's little question significant future chances of major hurricanes making landfall in the Gulf over the next few years IMHO.

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The Interloafer on March 14, 2006 - 10:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And don't forget NOAA's prediction that La Nina will be in effect for the next six months at least. (La Nina typically reduces upper level shear in the Atlantic basin and therefore fosters Hurricane development.)
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Gets IT on March 15, 2006 - 5:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Links to oscillations,
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/resource100.html

North Atlantic Data
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO/

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futurebird on March 15, 2006 - 7:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is what I find most disturbing-- the game is changing and they are using an old model.
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