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67 comments on National Hurricane Center and the Likelihood of Hurricanes

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plucky underdog on March 14, 2006 - 10:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That's easy

Letmebefirstletmebefirstletmebefirst

p(X) = probability of event X
E = Hurricane in East, W = Hurricane in West
~X means NOT event X
& means logical OR
| means logical OR

p(E) = 0.64    so p(~E) = 0.36
p(W) = 0.47    so p(~W) = 0.53

so p(~E & ~W) = 0.36 * 0.53 = 0.19

so p(~(~E & ~W)) = p(E|W) = 1 - 0.19 = 0.81

QED. Cigar?

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plucky underdog on March 14, 2006 - 10:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Errata

& means logical AND

Oops

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Halfin on March 15, 2006 - 12:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks, Plucky, that does make sense! So it really does add up properly.
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