The Oil Drum

150 comments on Wednesday Open Thread

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Nate Hagens on March 15, 2006 - 12:30pm

Mathematically, the first derivative of oil growth is still postive before we hit peak, but the second derivative (rate of increase) has already turned negative-production is increasing but at a decreasing rate - this is being outweighed by higher demand hence prices have gone up 500%+ in last 6 years. The asymptotic rise in oil prices will come when first derivative of world production goes negative (peak oil).

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Don Sailorman on March 15, 2006 - 12:52pm

Interesting. Good work. But what I want to know is: About when will the function become discontinuous?

Calculus cannot help there, and even catastrophe and complexity math do not help much to make real-world forecasts.

As an economist, I find it fascinating to see the demand for "prophets" to increase--people who write newsletters, astrologers, consultants, and authors of the "Left Behind" series of apocalyptic Christian novels.

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Donal on March 15, 2006 - 12:58pm

This illustrator has to know Sailorman:

http://www.drinkatwork.com/2006/03/comic-for-wednesday-march-15-2006.html

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Don Sailorman on March 15, 2006 - 1:58pm

Arrghhhh,
Aye, that website is more fun than TOD. Thanks, we should all go there more often.

And the Wittengenstein reference has wheels within wheels to us philosophy afficianodos--about 3 levels of puns.

McDonald O'Sailorman:
I'll eat when I'm hungry,
I'll drink when I'm dry,
An the poteen don't get me,
I'll live till I die.

Did you know that (along with some help from the Arabs) the Irish saved civilization while Europe stank into its Dark Age?

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“Of all races in an advanced stage of civilization, the American is the least accessible to long views… Always and everywhere in a hurry to get rich, he does not give a thought to remote consequences; he sees only present advantages… He does not remember, he does not feel, he lives in a materialist dream.”

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