The Oil Drum

I think that it would be really interesting to show some real life case histories of countries/regions that have gone from net exporters to net importers, i.e., plots showing production, consumption and net exports turning into net imports.  I am especially interested in the rate of decline in production versus the rate of decline in net exports.  

A really fascinating development is going to be on the natural gas side, especially here in the States.  I would think that you would want to move away from big natural gas importing areas at the ends of the distributions systems as fast as possible.  California comes to mind.  Note that this would increase consumption in the exporting areas, accelerating the decline in natural gas "exports" to the "importing" areas.

I wonder if we might see the Canadians construct a wall, to keep the Americans from migrating North?

On the oil side, an obvious problem is going to be the dollar.   The question that the oil exporters are going to start asking is what thing of value can you offer us in exchange for our oil, especially if the exporters have trouble exchanging dollars for hard assets.  They could always buy stock, but the question arises to what the inherent value is in the US stock market, especially if the currency is depreciating.  

The Neocons reasoning for putting 150,000 troops in the Middle East becomes more transparent every day.  Unfortunately, I wonder if we are rapidly approaching the point at which everyone in the neighborhood is going to be shooting at us.

What do you think life would be like in Fort McMurray? It's certainly nothing like Dubai. Proximity to energy resources does not necessarily translate into a high standard of living, especially where energy production can out-compete all other uses of resources.

Although Fort McMurray may appear to be awash in cash, the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (within which Fort McMurray is located) shows a very different picture of what is happening. With a population of 56,000 (which the industry predicts may soon reach 80,000), Fort McMurray has, as one municipal representative put it, the amenities of a town of only 10,000. Downtown Franklin Avenue is known across Canada as the "crystal meth" capital of Alberta....

....In the spring, the melting snow bares streets littered with all kinds of garbage. The mayor would like residents to take more pride in their community. There's the debauchery on Franklin Street, the overcrowded schools, the lack of land for proper housing developments, plus the need for a new fire station for the south end of the city and a new water treatment plant.......plus a lack of adequate policing simply because the RCMP cannot afford to subsidize its officers to pay the city's high cost of living....

....The Crown land owned by the province that surrounds the city has contributed to a serious housing shortage that's become a nightmare for home-buyers and a major headache for an industry desperate to lure a skilled workforce north. What's more, the local economy is badly skewed. Pipe-fitters, electricians, engineers and plumbers can easily earn $100,000 a year, and the average age is just over 30. but the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and local businesses can't compete. In a province where the minimum wage is just $5.90 an hour, Tim Horton's offers its workers $10.25 an hour to serve doughnuts and coffee in Fort McMurray, and they still cannot find staff. Teachers, medical workers and municipal employees cannot be persuaded to stay in Fort McMurray at the wages the city can afford.

(From Fuelling Fortress America)

Stuart,

You are of course correct that time will tell, but the same time period last year (12/31 to 4/8, four week running average) showed increases in both crude oil imports and total net imports, while that time period this year showed a 4% and 8.7% drop respectively.