He's suspending deliveries to the SPR, relaxing environmental rules on gasoline, calling for an end to tax breaks for big oil, and investigating oil industry pricing.
Yeah. How much do you want to bet that the sudden drop in prices after his speech will be seen by the motoring majority as "those gougers running scared", rather than dirtier air for cheaper gas. The part that has really changed is the change in fuel reformulation. No need to ship ethanol for a while. That should bring some of the rocketing ethanol shares back down to earth.
To answer a question further down, the president can't arbitrarily change the air quality laws, but he can suspend their implementation. I wonder if the environmental groups will sue? I wonder if there is a judge out there that would be willing to require implementation again, knowing that s/he will be responsible for jacking gas prices up again.
Although crude oil prices dropped a bit after the speech, I noticed that nearby gas stations raised prices this afternoon, from $2.89 to $2.95. It seems as though not everyone agrees that Pres.GWB's new plan will really help the consumer price-problem all that much---at least, not anytime soon. It will be interesting to see where gas station prices go tomorrow, after release of the weekly petroleum status report.
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-chinas-oil-prices-forecast-rise-/2006/04/25/1604426.htm
"With international oil prices breaching US$75 per barrel, China's crude prices, which fluctuate with international benchmarks, are expected to rise considerably as well. The country's Daqing crude price is forecast to rise to 4,701 (US$586.55) yuan/ton in May, 421 yuan/ton higher than that in April"
But I misundertood what it meant. It seems to say that the Chinese are willing to bid the price up to $83/b next month, and that they expect it to reach that price.
WTI is now $6.5/b less than IPE for what has typically been a higher grade of oil. At what differential will it become economical for Asia to buy WTI and ship east?
Right now the June contract is set at just above $72/b. If the article is any indication of the Chinese willingness to bid the price up by 9%, then this is a very good price indeed.
No details yet, but I suspect it will be that ethanol thing. That's what's causing the shortages on the east coast, Texas, etc. He's relaxing the deadline for the switchover, probably.
This is correct-- Bush has asked the EPA to undo the deadline to switch away from MTBE, I believe.
There was an interview on NPR at noon today with Rep. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee representing the Committee on Energy and Commerce. When invited to comment on Bush's statement today she sounded fully supportive of reducing environmental impediments to cheap gas. I don't remember many specific quotes from the interview but "over the top" environmental protection is one that comes to mind.
So here we are. Despite decades of warnings about peak oil, and in disregard of the lessons of the 70's, we're again going to remove environmental protections so we can keep gas "cheap" in order to continue our gluttonous lifestyle. It's just the beginning, IMO.
It wouldn't be so bad to phase-in the Ethanol switch. How many millions (billions) of gallons were sold with the old blend? Waiting a month or two in some cities so that the refineries can catch up on their production won't make a long term difference. Instead of mandating that all refineries switch today, let 30% switch this month, and another 30 in two months, etc. In four months we've made the switch with less gnashing of teeth.
An indefinite suspension would be stupid, I think.
The whole of GWB's four point energy program doesn't even amount to a hill of beans.
As discussed above, not adding the last 12 million barrels of oil to the SPR over the next six months isn't much. And who here doesn't think the minute the next hurricane strikes the Gulf Coast, the SPR wouldn't be tapped anyway. Last year the SPR was even tapped for a tug accident!
On to MTBE. The President is only deffering the implemenation of the changeover to ethanol by 20 days. More problematic, as far as I can tell, suppliers and providers of MTBE products will still be liable for lawsuits starting on May 6.
Tax credits - so we have a energy conservation that encourages the purchase of additional vehicles!
Hydrogen cars saving the day, don't make me laugh!
Either way, an ominous beginning to what I can see happening more and more in the future: relaxation or outright abolishment of any environmental law seen as too "onerous" in the face of higher and higher energy prices. (How long before they tear down the scrubbers on existing coal-burning power plants?)
And once a step backwards occurs, it will be that more difficult to reenact/re-enforce environmental protections.
Yes, I agree. The handwriting is on the wall. We aren't going to tax gas and build light rail. We're going to throw out environmental rules, burn more dirty coal, and drill the White House lawn if there's any chance there's oil there.
This is why I fear our most likely fate is "catabolic collapse," where we continue on until the environment is so trashed it won't support us any more.
The cynicism and resulting paralysis among the people in this country who want positive change almost brings me to tears. Few are willing to fight for it. Cynicism is a horrible, horrible cancer that we can get rid of if we want to. We should be ashamed of ourselves for not doing so.
I'm sick of reading elitist post after post outlining the sins of Americans. Either get of your ass and do something about it or shut your *&%$ing pie hole. If you're "too good" to calmly explain the issues to people who are in denial or unaware, you are part of the problem. You know why the Bad Guys are winning? Because they want it more than we do.
Leanan this post wasn't directed specifically at you, and I know there are a number of people here doing really good work (and more than myself).
As Prof. Goose has pointed out, it really is harder to change things in the U.S. (as opposed to, say, Europe). Our whole political system is set up to resist change. We have massive inertia, and it is intentional. Built in by the founding fathers.
Our political system was designed to make changes to the system itself hard. Get the right people into power and the US's energy policy could change dramatically and quickly. The fact that Bush would rather eat a live toad than do the right thing on energy doesn't mean the whole system is permanently incapable of responding as we'd like.
(I know it's hard to get good people elected largely because of the corrupting power of lobbyist money, but that's a different issue.)
Well, I guess it would be good to get a clear definition from you....
The fact that Bush would rather eat a live toad than do the right thing on energy doesn't mean the whole system is permanently incapable of responding as we'd like.
As regards to "We're not going to change until we're forced to". I agree with you. My Big problem is, if we really wait that long, until things are so bad even the dumbest person can see the problem right in front of them, and they cannot be ignored: will it be too late by then to enact the necessary changes to avoid society collapse?
This is a question I think about more and more. If one thinks about the Hirsh report and its recommendations in relation to 'timelines' we should already have begun the 'changes' we appear to already be way behind on this, and how are we going to catch up? Do we really have another 10 or 15 years to waste?
Clearly most people on TOD would say, 'No'. We should be changing now, not speeding up. We're talking about the need to change the course of a giant, super-tanker, and magically turn it into a yacht so we can avoid the reef up ahead. I keep on trying to remain positive and engage with the world around me, but I really don't see any real political leadership anywhere that's taking this problem seriously.
We're talking about the need to change the course of a giant, super-tanker, and magically turn it into a yacht so we can avoid the reef up ahead.
Exactly.
I'm afraid it will take some serious suffering to do that, if it's possible at all. We've certainly had stark warnings. The '70s oil crises. Katrina. But still, no real change. What's it going to take? Something like the "We Were Warned" scenario? I have a feeling even that won't enough.
That is what I, and many others, have been saying for some time. The American people, just like any human on the planet, are short-term oriented. They want to keep the status quo no matter what the consequences.
Think of it this way. War is the most obviously deadly agent on the planet. You cannot purchase a few scientists and stonewall the deleterious effects of war like you can global warming. The plain truth is lots of people get killed in war. YET, men and women keep going to war. Why? Because at the heart of every little hormone machine known as the human is the certain knowledge that the guy or gal next to him or her will be the one to die on the battlefield -- not them. That person will live forever. If humans had any sense of the imminent future, there would be no war. SO. How can you expect the average human to acknowledge the absolute certainty of peak oil until it is hammering them on the head? You can't. The lemmings march on. Last man standing. And any other trope you can think of.
Yes, I'd like to be optimistic. But look at what we are doing to the planet, the economy, and our own people.
There you will see what it means to be rich, uncaring, deadly and immune from government interference. That is the face of humanity in these republican times. It seems the republicans have it right; we live in brutal Hobbesian times.
This time, the statement 'YET, men and women keep going to war. Why? Because at the heart of every little hormone machine known as the human is the certain knowledge that the guy or gal next to him or her will be the one to die on the battlefield -- not them.' is so utterly ignorant of how most armies over most human history have functioned that I will just give a couple of recent examples.
The Japanese kamikazes were very effective - but not because that bundle of hormones thought they would live.
The Soviets updated the Prussian attitude of making sure soldiers were more terrified of their officers than the enemy by making sure that the soldiers knew that they would certainly be killed by the units behind them, while the enemy might only kill them.
As near as anyone can tell from the sick mythos and actual combat of the Waffen SS, those bundles of evil didn't seem to care too much about living or dying, apart from fulfilling the goals of their leader.
If you had talked about how elites, plutocrats, chickenhawks, etc. use war, and their attitudes to cannon fodder, fine.
And sure, the soldier is still the one pulling the trigger in the end.
But to blame war on soldiers believing they will live forever while the other dies is just absurd in a larger context. I assume you have heard of the draft? Ever wonder why that institution developed? Ever wonder why most militaries are still based on it?
Here is a hint - it is a supply and demand problem, and peak soldier has been a long running problem, since the demand is so much greater than the voluntary supply for industrial warfare.
I think we are making great progress. Elite opinion is on board with the idea of peak oil and with the idea that it is happening about now. As long as there is no short term collapse in the price, I think that the energy crisis will be the defining issue of the 2006 and 2008 elections.
The Republican are stuck defending the status quo and the oil industry because that is what conservatives do and because of the oil industry background of the administration. If anyone should have known that the oil is peaking, the Bushies should have. When it becomes clear that the looming crisis is just another thing that the current leadership has been misleading the public about, opinion will turn even more against them. The public will have someone to blame for not mobilizing society to do something about it.
The MSM, as evidenced by the Economist article, is also defending the status quo because to embrace the massive change needed would alienate their corporate advertisers and get them in trouble with the public for preaching doom and gloom. But facts are troublesome things.
The public is at near record levels of discontent with the direction of the country. They will be open to a crusade to save civilization. As a society, we will continue to be in denial for a while. But we have an excellent opportunity in the next few years to change the course of history. The stars are aligning.
Sterling,
I fear you have a naive understanding of politics.
"Facts" are irrelevant.
What counts is the public's perception of reality.
Politicians are pro's at manipulating the masses like soft noses made of wax.
Let's see. ... What have the Democrats done about this surprise surprise, "urgent" crisis? Nothing. All they do is sit there and whine like babies without their mommies. Only a decisive leader like our GWB stands up and delivers a plan. Only GWB can use the unitary power of his presidency to turn off the EPA rules like a little switch on the wall. Kerry would not have had the guts to flip that switch. Kerry would have stood there and flip flopped. Flip flopped. Flip flopped. America needs decisive leaders. Now, more than ever, America needs Republicans.
(Not that I believe any of this crap ... but point is ..what's "facts" got to do with it? Politics is just perception, twisted and warped in the hands of those skilled at rearranging reality.)
Yeah, you people. Listen to Step Back! We need more war! More pollution cause as we all know them liberal scientists are just making all that elitist science crap up to further their own interests -- just ask Micheal Crichton. There is no global warming!! The people are completely moldable, just ask Karl Rove! Facts are irrelevant!! Just feed them disinformation, get them all hopped up on abortion or stem cell hooey and the morons will forget about their planet going to shit.
WOOOOHOOOOO!!!!!
And, you know, just because the democrats, also known as republican lite, are too stupid to take hold of all of the issues the republicans keep screwing up and beating the tar out of 'em with these laughable failures, doesn't mean nothing will be done. I sure the democrats will find a way to help some poor person who is hungry or in need of medical help or who is being discriminated against for their sexual orientation. They know better than to challenge the status quo. Weanies.
Yes, keep supporting Resident Bush cause even though he might not be able to pronounce "unitary power of the presidency," ole Unca Dick will show him how to use it!!!
I meant there is a limit to denial and obfuscation if supply and demand drives the price of crude to $130 and gas to $5 by the presidential election. These guys have no credibility any more. They should have known that the only solution requires massive investment outside the current oil and gas industry, which was the only beneficiary of their energy policy.
The leader of the Democratic party, Bill Clinton, said the other day that we are probably now at peak production. Who among the Republicans leaders would dare whisper that?
The Demos are ideally positioned to take the lead out of the coming wreckage of the old order. The Republican had their chance but have made a mess of it. The people know that.
I've voted the Democratic party ticket my whole life.
What I wrote was sarcasm to some extent --but also truth.
The voting masses have never heard of Peak Oil. We here at TOD have our Hubbert Glasses too tightly afixed to our eyeballs. We think everybody sees it the way we do. They don't.
If you do not see that, then you are in deep denial.
The vast majority of the human herd does not know what PO is. The vast majority firmly believes this is just another Middle East conspiracy to temporarily make widfall profits before prices return to "normal".
Just try running PO theory past your co-workers, your friends, your family. Odds are that most will label you a kook.
A couple of days ago, I heard a local radio talk show host (Gene Burns KGO California) do a show on gas prices. He is normally a pretty bright guy --and yet he expressed the belief that this is just a repeat of the 1974 oil crunch. It happened before. It will happen the same way again. Been there. Done that. No need to worry. The end.
I thought about calling in. But what is the use? These late night talk shows are just looking for entertainment value, one minute sound bites. One has to disseminate way too much information in way too little time to get the point across. PO is a tough sell. It's bad news and it's complex. Your average Joe does not like being shown up for what he does not know. Give him American Idol. Give him Apprentice. Give him short tag lines like, "You're fired" or "America wants you". But don't drop that boring PO pablum on him. Those are the facts.
I knew you were being sarcastic if a bit over wrought.
Now I do not think you understand how politics works. Most voter follow opinion leaders. They take their cues from people they know who they think know what is going on. To make a change, you do not need to convince all those people you are worrying about. That is why elite opinion is so important. It is definitely going our way.
Until now, peak oil has had no traction with most people because it has had no effect on them. We are still in the era of cheap oil. But if we are really now in the undulating plateau, it is different, because either demand will grow and prices will continue to rise or enough demand will be destroyed to slow the economy down a lot. People are starting to feel it and there is no relief in sight. I think Matt Simmons has been right about this for a long time and he is predicting $200-250 crude by 2010. That is only a little more than a year after the next presidential election. So the crisis is upon us.
The Karl Rove magic is not going to work any more. Bush is at 32% and still going down. No one trusts him any more. The administration has utterly failed to do anything useful about the long-term problem. Deplete America First while we still have cheap oil is not only not the answer but also severely threatens our national security. Taking over the Persian Gulf is not going to fly either. It will not keep oil flowing and cannot be done without a large scale draft.
Do not lose faith. The tide is about to turn. There is a real chance now for significant change. The American people are going to take the keys away from the people that have made such a mess of the current situation and done nothing constructive to prepare us for the coming crisis.
The American people are going to take the keys away from the people that have made such a mess of the current situation and done nothing constructive to prepare us for the coming crisis.
And give them to people whose idea of "doing something" is to make gas price gouging a federal crime...
A recent poll at Jerome a Paris' dKos Diary suggests 65% might. Think about it, if you brought the Republicans in, it wouldn't be a suicide run, you'd be in the center with a fighting chance, and with effective leadership, a good chance.
None of this short term posturing is going to help us. We need Matt Simmon's Plan B, a massive World War II level effort to remake our energy infrastructure. There is no chance that is going to come out of the current crowd. The oil industry Republicans are too much part of the problem. The Demos are our only hope.
Politicians are not the answer. They just feed themselves votes. Last time I looked, the only politician screaeming peak oil was Roscoe Bartlett --a Republican. No one was listening to him, not even the Demos.
He's suspending deliveries to the SPR, relaxing environmental rules on gasoline, calling for an end to tax breaks for big oil, and investigating oil industry pricing.
To answer a question further down, the president can't arbitrarily change the air quality laws, but he can suspend their implementation. I wonder if the environmental groups will sue? I wonder if there is a judge out there that would be willing to require implementation again, knowing that s/he will be responsible for jacking gas prices up again.
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-chinas-oil-prices-forecast-rise-/2006/04/25/1604426.htm
"With international oil prices breaching US$75 per barrel, China's crude prices, which fluctuate with international benchmarks, are expected to rise considerably as well. The country's Daqing crude price is forecast to rise to 4,701 (US$586.55) yuan/ton in May, 421 yuan/ton higher than that in April"
But I misundertood what it meant. It seems to say that the Chinese are willing to bid the price up to $83/b next month, and that they expect it to reach that price.
There was an interview on NPR at noon today with Rep. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee representing the Committee on Energy and Commerce. When invited to comment on Bush's statement today she sounded fully supportive of reducing environmental impediments to cheap gas. I don't remember many specific quotes from the interview but "over the top" environmental protection is one that comes to mind.
So here we are. Despite decades of warnings about peak oil, and in disregard of the lessons of the 70's, we're again going to remove environmental protections so we can keep gas "cheap" in order to continue our gluttonous lifestyle. It's just the beginning, IMO.
An indefinite suspension would be stupid, I think.
Finally, guess which way I think they'll go?
As discussed above, not adding the last 12 million barrels of oil to the SPR over the next six months isn't much. And who here doesn't think the minute the next hurricane strikes the Gulf Coast, the SPR wouldn't be tapped anyway. Last year the SPR was even tapped for a tug accident!
On to MTBE. The President is only deffering the implemenation of the changeover to ethanol by 20 days. More problematic, as far as I can tell, suppliers and providers of MTBE products will still be liable for lawsuits starting on May 6.
Tax credits - so we have a energy conservation that encourages the purchase of additional vehicles!
Hydrogen cars saving the day, don't make me laugh!
And once a step backwards occurs, it will be that more difficult to reenact/re-enforce environmental protections.
This is why I fear our most likely fate is "catabolic collapse," where we continue on until the environment is so trashed it won't support us any more.
You didn't honestly expect anything different from this president, did you?
The cynicism and resulting paralysis among the people in this country who want positive change almost brings me to tears. Few are willing to fight for it. Cynicism is a horrible, horrible cancer that we can get rid of if we want to. We should be ashamed of ourselves for not doing so.
I'm sick of reading elitist post after post outlining the sins of Americans. Either get of your ass and do something about it or shut your *&%$ing pie hole. If you're "too good" to calmly explain the issues to people who are in denial or unaware, you are part of the problem. You know why the Bad Guys are winning? Because they want it more than we do.
Leanan this post wasn't directed specifically at you, and I know there are a number of people here doing really good work (and more than myself).
As Prof. Goose has pointed out, it really is harder to change things in the U.S. (as opposed to, say, Europe). Our whole political system is set up to resist change. We have massive inertia, and it is intentional. Built in by the founding fathers.
We aren't going to change until we're forced to.
(I know it's hard to get good people elected largely because of the corrupting power of lobbyist money, but that's a different issue.)
We won't be able to get the "right" people into power. And once they are in power, it won't be easy for them to change things.
What is "the right thing", in your opinion?
As regards to "We're not going to change until we're forced to". I agree with you. My Big problem is, if we really wait that long, until things are so bad even the dumbest person can see the problem right in front of them, and they cannot be ignored: will it be too late by then to enact the necessary changes to avoid society collapse?
This is a question I think about more and more. If one thinks about the Hirsh report and its recommendations in relation to 'timelines' we should already have begun the 'changes' we appear to already be way behind on this, and how are we going to catch up? Do we really have another 10 or 15 years to waste?
Clearly most people on TOD would say, 'No'. We should be changing now, not speeding up. We're talking about the need to change the course of a giant, super-tanker, and magically turn it into a yacht so we can avoid the reef up ahead. I keep on trying to remain positive and engage with the world around me, but I really don't see any real political leadership anywhere that's taking this problem seriously.
Exactly.
I'm afraid it will take some serious suffering to do that, if it's possible at all. We've certainly had stark warnings. The '70s oil crises. Katrina. But still, no real change. What's it going to take? Something like the "We Were Warned" scenario? I have a feeling even that won't enough.
That is what I, and many others, have been saying for some time. The American people, just like any human on the planet, are short-term oriented. They want to keep the status quo no matter what the consequences.
Think of it this way. War is the most obviously deadly agent on the planet. You cannot purchase a few scientists and stonewall the deleterious effects of war like you can global warming. The plain truth is lots of people get killed in war. YET, men and women keep going to war. Why? Because at the heart of every little hormone machine known as the human is the certain knowledge that the guy or gal next to him or her will be the one to die on the battlefield -- not them. That person will live forever. If humans had any sense of the imminent future, there would be no war. SO. How can you expect the average human to acknowledge the absolute certainty of peak oil until it is hammering them on the head? You can't. The lemmings march on. Last man standing. And any other trope you can think of.
Yes, I'd like to be optimistic. But look at what we are doing to the planet, the economy, and our own people.
To see what our corporations are doing, go to:
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0425-21.htm
There you will see what it means to be rich, uncaring, deadly and immune from government interference. That is the face of humanity in these republican times. It seems the republicans have it right; we live in brutal Hobbesian times.
All hail the profit motive.
The Japanese kamikazes were very effective - but not because that bundle of hormones thought they would live.
The Soviets updated the Prussian attitude of making sure soldiers were more terrified of their officers than the enemy by making sure that the soldiers knew that they would certainly be killed by the units behind them, while the enemy might only kill them.
As near as anyone can tell from the sick mythos and actual combat of the Waffen SS, those bundles of evil didn't seem to care too much about living or dying, apart from fulfilling the goals of their leader.
If you had talked about how elites, plutocrats, chickenhawks, etc. use war, and their attitudes to cannon fodder, fine.
And sure, the soldier is still the one pulling the trigger in the end.
But to blame war on soldiers believing they will live forever while the other dies is just absurd in a larger context. I assume you have heard of the draft? Ever wonder why that institution developed? Ever wonder why most militaries are still based on it?
Here is a hint - it is a supply and demand problem, and peak soldier has been a long running problem, since the demand is so much greater than the voluntary supply for industrial warfare.
The Republican are stuck defending the status quo and the oil industry because that is what conservatives do and because of the oil industry background of the administration. If anyone should have known that the oil is peaking, the Bushies should have. When it becomes clear that the looming crisis is just another thing that the current leadership has been misleading the public about, opinion will turn even more against them. The public will have someone to blame for not mobilizing society to do something about it.
The MSM, as evidenced by the Economist article, is also defending the status quo because to embrace the massive change needed would alienate their corporate advertisers and get them in trouble with the public for preaching doom and gloom. But facts are troublesome things.
The public is at near record levels of discontent with the direction of the country. They will be open to a crusade to save civilization. As a society, we will continue to be in denial for a while. But we have an excellent opportunity in the next few years to change the course of history. The stars are aligning.
Sterling,
I fear you have a naive understanding of politics.
"Facts" are irrelevant.
What counts is the public's perception of reality.
Politicians are pro's at manipulating the masses like soft noses made of wax.
Let's see. ... What have the Democrats done about this surprise surprise, "urgent" crisis? Nothing. All they do is sit there and whine like babies without their mommies. Only a decisive leader like our GWB stands up and delivers a plan. Only GWB can use the unitary power of his presidency to turn off the EPA rules like a little switch on the wall. Kerry would not have had the guts to flip that switch. Kerry would have stood there and flip flopped. Flip flopped. Flip flopped. America needs decisive leaders. Now, more than ever, America needs Republicans.
(Not that I believe any of this crap ... but point is ..what's "facts" got to do with it? Politics is just perception, twisted and warped in the hands of those skilled at rearranging reality.)
Yeah, you people. Listen to Step Back! We need more war! More pollution cause as we all know them liberal scientists are just making all that elitist science crap up to further their own interests -- just ask Micheal Crichton. There is no global warming!! The people are completely moldable, just ask Karl Rove! Facts are irrelevant!! Just feed them disinformation, get them all hopped up on abortion or stem cell hooey and the morons will forget about their planet going to shit.
WOOOOHOOOOO!!!!!
And, you know, just because the democrats, also known as republican lite, are too stupid to take hold of all of the issues the republicans keep screwing up and beating the tar out of 'em with these laughable failures, doesn't mean nothing will be done. I sure the democrats will find a way to help some poor person who is hungry or in need of medical help or who is being discriminated against for their sexual orientation. They know better than to challenge the status quo. Weanies.
Yes, keep supporting Resident Bush cause even though he might not be able to pronounce "unitary power of the presidency," ole Unca Dick will show him how to use it!!!
Remember the republican motto!!!
IT'S NOT FASCISM WHEN WE DO IT!!
I meant there is a limit to denial and obfuscation if supply and demand drives the price of crude to $130 and gas to $5 by the presidential election. These guys have no credibility any more. They should have known that the only solution requires massive investment outside the current oil and gas industry, which was the only beneficiary of their energy policy.
The leader of the Democratic party, Bill Clinton, said the other day that we are probably now at peak production. Who among the Republicans leaders would dare whisper that?
The Demos are ideally positioned to take the lead out of the coming wreckage of the old order. The Republican had their chance but have made a mess of it. The people know that.
I've voted the Democratic party ticket my whole life.
What I wrote was sarcasm to some extent --but also truth.
The voting masses have never heard of Peak Oil. We here at TOD have our Hubbert Glasses too tightly afixed to our eyeballs. We think everybody sees it the way we do. They don't.
If you do not see that, then you are in deep denial.
The vast majority of the human herd does not know what PO is. The vast majority firmly believes this is just another Middle East conspiracy to temporarily make widfall profits before prices return to "normal".
Just try running PO theory past your co-workers, your friends, your family. Odds are that most will label you a kook.
A couple of days ago, I heard a local radio talk show host (Gene Burns KGO California) do a show on gas prices. He is normally a pretty bright guy --and yet he expressed the belief that this is just a repeat of the 1974 oil crunch. It happened before. It will happen the same way again. Been there. Done that. No need to worry. The end.
I thought about calling in. But what is the use? These late night talk shows are just looking for entertainment value, one minute sound bites. One has to disseminate way too much information in way too little time to get the point across. PO is a tough sell. It's bad news and it's complex. Your average Joe does not like being shown up for what he does not know. Give him American Idol. Give him Apprentice. Give him short tag lines like, "You're fired" or "America wants you". But don't drop that boring PO pablum on him. Those are the facts.
I knew you were being sarcastic if a bit over wrought.
Now I do not think you understand how politics works. Most voter follow opinion leaders. They take their cues from people they know who they think know what is going on. To make a change, you do not need to convince all those people you are worrying about. That is why elite opinion is so important. It is definitely going our way.
Until now, peak oil has had no traction with most people because it has had no effect on them. We are still in the era of cheap oil. But if we are really now in the undulating plateau, it is different, because either demand will grow and prices will continue to rise or enough demand will be destroyed to slow the economy down a lot. People are starting to feel it and there is no relief in sight. I think Matt Simmons has been right about this for a long time and he is predicting $200-250 crude by 2010. That is only a little more than a year after the next presidential election. So the crisis is upon us.
The Karl Rove magic is not going to work any more. Bush is at 32% and still going down. No one trusts him any more. The administration has utterly failed to do anything useful about the long-term problem. Deplete America First while we still have cheap oil is not only not the answer but also severely threatens our national security. Taking over the Persian Gulf is not going to fly either. It will not keep oil flowing and cannot be done without a large scale draft.
Do not lose faith. The tide is about to turn. There is a real chance now for significant change. The American people are going to take the keys away from the people that have made such a mess of the current situation and done nothing constructive to prepare us for the coming crisis.
And give them to people whose idea of "doing something" is to make gas price gouging a federal crime...
Politicians are not the answer. They just feed themselves votes. Last time I looked, the only politician screaeming peak oil was Roscoe Bartlett --a Republican. No one was listening to him, not even the Demos.