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96 comments on Big Oil and Alternative Energy

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kjmclark on May 3, 2006 - 9:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
TheLastSasquatch wrote: "Its also counter to human nature, which is to focus on the present -the future is discounted heavily."

Jokuhl wrote: "That's pretty bold classification of Human Nature."

Actually, IMHO it isn't too bold.  This is the way the entire rest of the animal kingdom works.  AFAIK, humans are the only species that gives any thought whatsoever to the future.  So I would adjust the original statement to say, "It's also counter to all nature, which is to focus on the present."  

It's a real credit to humanity that we give any weight to the future at all.  It's strong evidence that we really are smarter than yeast.  The next question is, are we smart enough to avoid the outcome of all yeast?  So far, we have several thousands of years of track record in our favor :-)  Of course I've never heard of yeast going to war :-(

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Nate Hagens on May 4, 2006 - 9:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
thanks kjmclark. I think the reason we give any weight to the future is because of the sunk costs of capital, infrastructure, agriculture, etc. if we hunted and gathered our discount rates would  be about as steep as my dogs.
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Backstop on May 4, 2006 - 9:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
As an ecologist, if I could spare the time, I'd list some of the myraid species of terrestrial and marine life that put effort into developing, storing & conserving resources for future well-being.

What some Americans now claim to be human nature is no more than what they've been taught to believe by the propagandists of consumption. The conduct they claim to be universal is actually no more than a relatively recent materialist ideology.

regards,

Backstop

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Nate Hagens on May 4, 2006 - 10:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
are there any examples where they set aside resources for more than one season/generation?
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pbrewer on May 4, 2006 - 10:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Bees will store vast amounts of honey--enough that humans can take large amounts and still leave the bees with enough to make it through the winter.  Bees also build hives that last for many generation of bees.

Of course it's also true that bees don't "think" about putting honey aside for the future.  Bees just do what bees do.

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AlanfromBigEasy on May 4, 2006 - 10:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, massive civil structures that take almost a generation to build.

The Swiss voted in 1998 to do a twenty year, 31 billion Swiss franc (= to $1 trillion for US) upgrade of their rail system.  The keystone of the entire project will take 17 years to complete (from memory).

Miami wants to build a 103 mile elevated "subway" over 25 years.  90% of the population will be within 3 miles of a station, over half within 2 miles.  They are taking themselves a 1/2 ¢ sales tax to pay for it.

Large dams, etc.

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odograph on May 4, 2006 - 10:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
well, i think modern "behavioral economics" is more biological (and scientific) in its footing than past generations armchair musings on human nature.

and i think behavioral economics does document a discounting of the future ("intertemporal choice," etc.).  such discounting may be an advantage because it is statistically correct ... but that's the whole point of the "black swan" argument, that we are less prepared (by nature) for the statistically infrequent.

... and peak oil is a classic black swan

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odograph on May 4, 2006 - 10:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"The Black Swan: Why Don't We Learn that We Don't Learn?"

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/blackswan.pdf

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The Real Mike on May 4, 2006 - 5:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It's got nothing to do with human nature, it's to do with the way our currency systems work. Look into demurrage or Bernard Leitaers "Future of Money" book for a good discussion of this.

If you want an example - in times of negative interest (when money was not a good store of value for instance due to taxes upon money levied by local lords) long term thinking was order of the day. Hence the construction of cathedrals in mediaeval England. Building a cathedral took generations but guaranteed income (via pilgrims) for even longer ...

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