<We breathe it out, so it must be OKThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: May 19, 2006>

117 comments on May IEA Oil Market Report

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jdeely on May 18, 2006 - 12:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Production Flattens Out

I am guessing that the trend will flatten out for the rest of the year. Demand in developed countries will drop due to high prices. This will be evened out by continuing - although slower - rise in developing countries. So overall, production will be flat.

 If production continues to rise then inventories will build.

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jim burke on May 18, 2006 - 9:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If one steps back and looks at this curve, imagining its future shape, it becomes quite alarming.

What if the back slope is a mirror image of the front slope?

A few seasons in plateau, then perhaps a drop as steep as the initial rise from 2002 to 2005. Perhaps a 10% drop in three or four years.

Does anybody have an idea what a 10% drop in oil supply would do to the price of gasoline?

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