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206 comments on DrumBeat: May 20, 2006

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westexas on May 20, 2006 - 1:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"But pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into oil exploration and development on some forced program to please the west is bad for Russia."

No argument from me.  I think that it is ultimately bad for the West too.  

However, we have seen three major regions peak and decline:  

Texas/Lower 48/Total US in the Seventies;

Russia in the Eighties;

North Sea in the Nineties.  

Based on the HL method, all peaked between about 49% and 58% of Qt.   None have shown production higher than what they showed in the vicinity of 50% of Qt.  Based on the HL method, Russia's rebound in production is just making up for what was not produced after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  

The kicker?  Based on currently producing basins (I admit that frontier basins in Russia are huge unknowns, for better or worse), the HL model indicates the US has more recoverable reserves than Russia.   This implies an extremely sharp decline.  How sharp can declines be?  Look at what the internal reports are suggesting for Cantarell (up to 40% per year).  

I continue to find it very interesting that Marathon sold their Russian production.

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RussianCrude on May 20, 2006 - 2:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It's ok, the Russians have a plan B

http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/05/18/heliummoon.shtml

No need to worry.

(sarcasm)

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dissident on May 20, 2006 - 7:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree with the HL method but I doubt that Russia's oil production will collapse by 15%-20% per year from now on.  There is also a big difference between the history of oil exploitation in Russia compared to the US.  The US has had many entrepreneurs getting at ever scrap of oil while in Russia it has been a few big enterprises before and after the fall of communism.

Marathon Oil could have been harassed out of Russia.  Treatment of foreign investors in the natural resource sector in that country has been attrocious.

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Essex Land Rover Man on May 20, 2006 - 11:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Marathon Oil could have been harassed out of Russia.  Treatment of foreign investors in the natural resource sector in that country has been attrocious.

But deliberate and planned?

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