The Oil Drum

17 comments on In Situ retorting of oil shale

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Dave Cohen on July 4, 2006 - 7:42pm

OK, I'll grant everything about producing the oil shales as a great resource of liquids to fuel the world economy. Just give up my total skepticism for the moment.

Let's talk instead about the timeframe and the potential for large-scale production. This is not discussed here. Only experiments with long lead times.

Aside from the impact on the environment, ignoring that too, what kind of window do we have for replacing decline rates in big but old fields all over the world? C'mon HO, what's the deal? How much will "oil shales" contribute to daily world production by 2012? 2015? 2020?

Naturally, you see my point. I need to be convinced that we are not talking about pipedreams. Your technical posts on the subject are fascinating. I would prefer to talk about the envisioned timeframe, the potential recoverable resources as a function of time and whether the financial, manpower and logistical (technical) resources will be available to make the miracle happen.

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memmel on July 5, 2006 - 2:31am

Actually I've come increasingly to the conclusion that we can not prevent major oil supply disruption with any alternative approach. In fact sour heavy crude won't even work. Were not only addicted to oil but were addicted to light sweet oil.

Right now were not even capably of timely switch over of our refining capacity to handle the heaver crudes since light sweet has peaked. This will get far worse before it get better if ever. This refining disruption actually over shadows overall oil production and in fact by the time we get this strait we will be pass peak oil. Once we start in terminal decline its impossible to bring online the millions of barrels of day of production to stay even much less reverse the decline. I'm sure all these alternative resource will have there own refining issues just like the orinco heavy oil, tar sands and other heavy oil deposits.
Sure we can refine it but we need special equipment.

The point is I think we are already past the real peak which is the maximum of oil and refinery capacity for the oil which was light sweet. Were never going to gain with difficult to refine heavy sour oils and depletion much less bring online things like oil shells in the volume needed to offset depletion.

Finally the problem is not oil supply its major and pernicious disruptions of the oil supply.

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odograph on July 5, 2006 - 8:24am

For what it's worth, I think that hangs together in a logical sense ... time will tell.

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LevinK on July 5, 2006 - 10:34am

From what I've read upgrading our refining capacity should be much easier than finding new sources of oil... but maybe this could be the immediate problem in the medium term, after which depletion will probably affect sour/heavy crude too.

I think RR should have more information on this issue.

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TJ on July 5, 2006 - 11:22am

Easy is a relative term. For very light, sweet crude, you need a fractionating column and not much else. This runs at a medium temperature and low pressure and is definitely not exotic tech. As the crude gets heavier, you start adding unit operations, cat crackers, akylators, cokers, thermal crackers; most of which run at higher temps and pressures. Same goes for sour crude; you need hydrotreaters or hydrocrackers. Heavy sour crude could require two or three times the amount of equipment than light, and correspondingly as much investment. Upgrades would require years; and that's assuming that enough of the required contruction expertise still exists in the U.S.

So the above commenter is right in the sense that exotic refineries take a long lead time. If the peak is between now and 2010, it may be too late.