The Oil Drum

80 comments on Linearize this...

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Stuart Staniford on July 7, 2006 - 5:19am

In large regions where such aggressive techniques have been used extensively, like the North Sea, the Hubbert linearization correctly predicts the aggressive declines that result.

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 7, 2006 - 8:31am

In a multi-field analysis, this effect will likely be small.

It shifts production under the curve to the left a bit, and distorts the curve, but when one aggregates all of the fields together the effect may be lost in the noise. Or it may shift peak from Qt = 50% to Qt = 51%.

The reason is that for any specific year near the middle, some younger fields will produce more due to this effect and some older fields will produce less.

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Dot on July 7, 2006 - 9:59am

I agree with this.

If the ME fields diverge from a Hubbert linearization, it is more likely to be because the bulk of production comes from such a small number of fields.

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LevinK on July 7, 2006 - 11:15am

IANAE (I'm not an expert), but I would suggest that this depends very much on the distribution of the fields. If the largest fields were discovered first and they were first to get the aggressive technics applied at, this effect will be much more significant.