The Oil Drum

80 comments on Linearize this...

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totoneila on July 7, 2006 - 6:01am

Hello Stuart,

Very interesting analysis, thank you.

Now linearize this.....

Imagine about early '70s as M. King Hubbert's original '56 thesis was becoming confirmed for the first time and some really astute observers decided to use King's ideas to graph the burn rate and Hubbert curve for the MiddleEast. They would be looking at your grey bell curve with the peak in 1988 and probably deciding, "Hell no, not on my watch!"

Kinda of boggles one's political mind--does it not?

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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Jussi on July 7, 2006 - 8:24am

That's exactly what I thought as well! And naturally I remembered the recent debate over whether H. Kissinger was somehow behind the first oil shock... On the other hand, I suppose the Saudis could have plotted it just as well; while it's common to say that the Saudis have been stupid and mismanaged their businesses, if I'm not totally mistaken Simmons pointed out several times in Twilight that the Saudis have been just as rational in their decisions as anybody.

Perhaps another round of speculation is called for...? ;-)

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totoneila on July 7, 2006 - 3:33pm

Hello Jussi,

Thxs for responding. I am grateful for this potential 20 year shift of the ME production profile peak from 1988 to 2006? 2008? 2010? by whomever, but it saddens one to think of those that have paid with their lives. The turmoil, conflict, and wars as historically highlighted arrows in Stuart's graph clearly indicate that millions in the MiddleEast were sacrificed towards this peakshift program extending through to the present Iraqi War. But billions & billions of barrels of crude can do strange things.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?