The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: July 25, 2006

286 comments on DrumBeat: July 25, 2006

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NeverLNG on July 25, 2006 - 9:53am

Human culture, so far as I can understand it, has never been "sustainable." There has always been "someplace else" to exploit when the local resources have been depleted. I believe this to be true of "paleolithic" hunter-gatherers who improved their efficiency of extraction of resources by developing "neolithic" agriculture -- but neither was sustainable.

Industrial society is neolithic on steroids, but not fundamentally different.

If humanity is to survive, we need a completely new paradigm. There is a lot of speculation about that, but truly, it is hard to fathom what such a thing would really look like, given the apparent hard-wired human needs for novelty and acquisitiveness.

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tochigi on July 25, 2006 - 10:39am

Pre-European aboriginal Australians lived on that continent for 50,000 years but only practiced very limited food production. They remained essentailly hunter-gatherers, with very low population growth. If left on their own, they may have developed food production.

As in North America, the arrival of humans in Australia was suspiciously coincidental to extintion of most large land mammals. So possibly they were not sustainable at first, but later arrived at an ecological equilibrium.

Another possible sustainable candidate is Japan, 1603-1867 (Edo Period).
The population remained almost steady at around 30 million for over 250 years.
Wet rice agriculture, soy beans and fishing were the staple means of survival. There was no immigration/emmigration, very little overseas trade, no wars and no epidemics. One could argue that with this population density, deforestation was bound to occur long term, a la Europe. But most of Japan is steep mountains, with much of the population residing in narrow flatish strips. Thus the forests survived in the mountains. Abundant rainfall and a temperate climate also meant the biomass could keep up to a greater extent.

Sustainability surely depends on whether the population can be supported long-term without depleting resources, and on how the society chooses to exploit or protect the resources available to it.

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capslock on July 25, 2006 - 11:02am

Famine is the arbitrator of sustainability. There were twenty great famines in Japan during the Edo period.

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IFeelFree on July 25, 2006 - 11:24am

With the advent of birth control, famine is not, in principle, necessary. In developed countries, birth rates have plummeted. Birthrates in developing countries are falling but not nearly enough.

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eric blair on July 25, 2006 - 7:06pm

Famine (foodwise) would not be a problem if humans were willing to produce excessive food, and the foodstuffs reaching the end of their storage life turned into a storable energy But that would take peopel not working to maximize their own personal 'universe', but have a working for a common good. Alas, anytime there is a group of people, a few will work to screw the others over to benefit themselves, so I'm not hopful for a famine-free regulated envirnment.

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TheRedBaron on July 25, 2006 - 12:58pm

What is regarded as essential depends on the culture. Americans may cancel holidays but I doubt if Eurpeans will especially the French. Here people work only 35 hours a week with a minimum of 6 weeks paid holiday per year, plus 14 public holidays which become 4 day week-ends whenever they land on Tuesday or Thursday. The society has chosen extra leisure instead of more stuff. Crap adverts on crap TVs doesn't affect people who just don't watch any television. We read books. A most important consideration to to minimise your own energy consumption. We have emigrated to live by the Med in a medieval village where the streets are mostly too narrow for horses never mind cars. In summer if it's unusaually hot we might put on a fan at night (60 watt) Summer rarely exceeds 30°C while winter is rarely below 16°C. Wood buners are very common. These houses were built 400 yaers ago before coal fires arrived. The Med is 25°C in peak summer and 17°C in winter and stabilises the narrow coastal strip south of the Alps.
France has lots of railways using all electric trains, 80% nuclear, 19% Hydro.
I really don' see a big problem with peak oil. Global warming is the bigger threat and we know who is mostly to blame.
cheers

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totoneila on July 25, 2006 - 3:25pm

Hello TheRedBaron,

I have never been to Europe, so I have a question. I was reading this A/C article that states that American vehicles burn more energy for A/C alone than all of Indonesia [pop 240 million] uses in its energy entirety. This 7 billion gallons of gas for A/C is probably due to the fact that it is nearly impossible to buy a vehicle without factory installed A/C.

Do most European cars come without factory A/C? Is it a European mandate by the Govts? Or is it because European fuel costs are already so high that most consumers prefer a vehicle without A/C to self-limit total car usage?

It would seem obvious as gas prices rise to eliminate A/C in cars. This reduces the car's intial cost and weight, and simplifies future maintenance, besides increasing the gas mileage. But most importantly, if no A/C was installed-- people would not be so inclined to drive needlessly wasting fuel. It would also encourage more people to use A/C mass-transit versus sweating in stalled traffic jams.

The Asphalt Wonderland, here in AZ, is the king of A/C and dark tinted windows--if A/C vehicles were abolished, I bet population would drop 15% in the first year alone. If most Phoenicians had their windows down they would also be much more likely to see and hear motorcycles and scooters versus having the windows shut tight to ease their ability to ceaselessly yap on their cellphones.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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neon9 on July 25, 2006 - 6:16pm

Bob,
It is no mandate, I have been to Europe 3 times and although I haven't been in many cars the ones I have been in at keast had A/C. Generally, it's not needed, although there are probably a lot more cars there that are simply not equipped with it. I saw a lot of people driving around Paris with their windows open. The big difference is simply their cars are all smaller. I saw many American and Japanese cars that you cannot buy here in the states. I assume that they think there is no market for them.

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TheRedBaron on July 26, 2006 - 1:55am

Air conditioning is usually only in more expensive cars which few people own. Standard cars come with fans and windows. Diesel cars have tax advatages as do cars that cost less than 9000 euros about 11 500 dollars
cheers

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neuroil on July 26, 2006 - 5:48am

Hello Totoneilla,

In France it becomes now virtually impossible to buy a car without A/C. Even the cheapest new car has A/C at least as an option. And most models are delivered with standard A/C.

As for diesel cars, the cars are more expensive but it is the fuel that has less taxes than gasoline.

todays prices :

gasoline : 6.15 $/gal
diesel : 5.29 $/gal

with a dollar at 1.26 euros

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Splinter on July 26, 2006 - 6:50am

Bob,

I don't have a car, but from looking around I can not conclude A/C is standard here in Holland. Ofcourse new cars more and more have it, but it's most times offered as an option. At least half of the year our average temperature does not require A/C too.

General public fuel price discussions blame taxes and Shell. "They did it, and we cannot but pay".

The typical beach days we have so much now in july lead to huge traffic jams. On some of these 'sundays' people spend more time in their car then on the beach (voluntary traffic!) I can imagine the extra cost for A/C is easily paid for and we'll have a second ice cream too. Our road services report most of the car problems they have to fix relate to (engine)cooling. But see what fun we have!

All the hospitals specialized in burning wounds make overhours. We're about to close our first electricity plant because the cooling water gets to hot.
Last night on the news it was said electro-technical installers make record business installing home A/Cs in our current month with record temps. As does this entrepreneur importing thermo-cooling-blankets from the US to keep pets cool :)

We're just to confused by this unprecendented heat to worry about it's root causes. In general I think the dire consequences of increased A/C use are easily forgotten in the comfort of cool air...

Keep sweating!

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sendoilplease on July 25, 2006 - 4:05pm

This is perfect - from the Land of Nipple Seekers:

"Here people work only 35 hours a week with a minimum of 6 weeks paid holiday per year, plus 14 public holidays which become 4 day week-ends whenever they land on Tuesday or Thursday."

"I really don' see a big problem with peak oil. "

You probably do not see the problem because you are Naive. And your Ignorance makes you complacent. Like a two year-old child, you seem to believe your government will just keep supplying you with Nipplez and, if not, why all you have to do is "Protest!"

By the way, how goes it in your suburbs this year?

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MUDLOGGER on July 25, 2006 - 5:09pm

No...
I dont think the French are naive at all. I think they are quite canny. They put French interests first, they have rejected the anglo-american business model of 'work till you drop then get fired'. They protect farmers (this will be useful in localised agriculture). They are highly literate and still produce good engineers and scientists and protect core industries.

They have 80% nuke power, high potential for hydro / tidal and an independent nuclear deterrent.

Right now, if Britain wants to 'nuke up' we will need to import nuke technology, engineers and scientists. Preferably from France since I no longer trust America to act in our interests. Right now, you are busy arresting UK Business men for 'crimes' that are not even crimes in the UK. Your Congress has not even ratified the extradition treaty ('fraid of the Irish caucus when we want our Irish terrorists back for a 'quiet chat'). But poodle Blair wont lift a finger. Chirac would just tell you to sod off over any Frenchmen being extradited.

BTW: We have to get a replacement for our Trident Nukes...
...Not sure the good ole US of A can be trusted not to put in switch - off codes, should they ever need to fly...

Perhaps we should buy French next time. I understand they are slimmer, more stylish and pack an elegant level of va-va-voom.

The French have good food, good wine, a good climate, and they dont give a dingos kidneys about the US/Anglo model, WTO or anything that gets in the way of the way they want to live.

OMG...I am defending the French...

Perhaps what pi**es you off is that these 'cheese eating surrender monkeys' gave your boss-man the finger over Iraq.

Looks like they were right eh?

We will see, in the fullness of time, if their model is better post peak oil.

The only fly in the ointment is water resources on the Mediterranean littoral and in Deep France. That's probably because lots of English have decided to go and live there.

I wonder why...

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totoneila on July 25, 2006 - 6:09pm

Hello Mudlogger,

Water shortages are a big problem everywhere, and could possibly be behind the Israeli push to control the geography in the Litani river drainage basin in Lebanon. If there is ever any justification to going to war, battling for water to survive would be a primary incentive.

Importing a ton of grain is equal to importing a 1,000 tons of water. If world grains shortages are developing, it would be in a country's strategic interest to grab more water. Consider these links:

http://www.arij.org/pub/corissues/

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1654
----------------
Jordan is importing some 91 percent of its grain, Israel 87 percent, Libya 85 percent, Saudi Arabia 50 percent, and Egypt 40 percent.

"As water shortages continue to mount, it is dangerous to presume, as many officials do, that there will be enough exportable grain to meet the import needs of all water-short countries at a price they can afford," said Postel
---------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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TrueKaiser on July 25, 2006 - 6:21pm

also the main reason france has 80% nuclear power is because no one else is using it to that degree(otherwise this site would be the oil & uranium drum ;) ). it's the same with public transit, the only reason it's cheap and esay to maintain is that the majority of people still perfer cars(i know somone will point out the soviets as a counter example but it isn't they subsidized it to the point it was basicly free to everyone who rode it. the government absorbed all the costs which of course was part of the reason they declined as we killed their only income source)

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LevinK on July 25, 2006 - 6:47pm

"it's the same with public transit, the only reason it's cheap and esay to maintain is that the majority of people still perfer cars"

This is totally untrue. Public transit (just like nuclear stations) has very high fixed costs because of the massive investments needed to be pyed for in advances and maintained after. COmpared to those the marginal costs per passenger are negligable. If a bus full or half-full the costs for the bus trip are the same - driver salary, diesel etc. As a result mass transit makes sense only when it is really "mass" - that is where people don't prefer cars - in densely populated cities, high gas prices etc. Actually almost the whole world outside US is like that.

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TrueKaiser on July 25, 2006 - 7:50pm

ok lets take your bus anaolgy for a spin.
while each rider does increass revenue it also increases weight of the bus, fuel used to move the bus, strain on the bus's axels. while statisticly more fuel efficent when a bus is fully loaded(more people to devide the finite tank volume with)

so basicly the people who run the busses have two choices.

increass fares to cover the new costs which result in less people riding and thus we are back square one.
buy more busses which again results in higher costs because it allows more people to ride. this brings us to point one.

public transport will fail, it's only a matter of time. if we let the market handle it like so many people are fond of it will fall flat on it's face faster then if the government subsidizes it's entire cost.

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LevinK on July 25, 2006 - 10:12pm

It is questionable which is subsidized more - mass transit or cars. At least for the mass transit we have clear accounts, while for the cars most of the real huge costs (suburban sprawl, accidents, pollution, highway patrols etc.) are externalised.

FWIW most european capitals have mass transits which have been operational for more than a century and none of them has collapsed by now. With gas prices going to the sky it will soon become obvious that this long-term investment has been worthed.

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HongKong Trader on July 26, 2006 - 1:47am

and during that century we had a couple of severe energy (oil) crisis.

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TheRedBaron on July 26, 2006 - 2:17am

In France public transport is heavily subsidised by Regional Governments and if you use public transport to commute your employer pays the fare. The maximum bus fare in the Alpes Maritimes is now 1.30 euros, about 1.60 dollars. The cities - Nice, Toulon, Marseilles- are all constructing electric tramways. The transport workers unions are quite militant.
BTW French nukes target the USA. A deal was reached some 10 years ago that the communist party, the last Stalinist party in Europe, would only join the Government if the Soviet Union was not the only target.
The suburbs are quiet right now. It's holiday time. Come autumn we expect the usual rituals of car burnings and attcks on the police. Just a normal part of the culture that causes little local excitement.

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Richard on July 25, 2006 - 10:47pm

it's the same with public transit, the only reason it's cheap and esay to maintain is that the majority of people still perfer cars

Interesting thought. You should come to Japan, explain your idea to the people taking the commute in Shibuya. You can make a lot of money.

I would guess that if a lot of people use public transport, it would get cheaper. But I guess thats just an old hippie dream?

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whaleoil on July 25, 2006 - 9:07pm

Israel imports 87% and Saudi only imports 50%?
How does Saudi do this with four times the population an
the great desert within which they live? I know
that they are much bigger but have no water? Desalination?

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totoneila on July 26, 2006 - 1:08am

Hello WhaleOil,

My guess is that the data is old. From this IECA article: it says that Saudia Arabia imports over 70% of its grains. The CIA Factbook for SA says:
-----------------------------------
Environment - current issues:

desertification; depletion of underground water resources; the lack of perennial rivers or permanent water bodies has prompted the development of extensive seawater desalination facilities; coastal pollution from oil spills.
-------------------------------------
Hopes this helps clear up the issue for you.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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slx on July 26, 2006 - 9:09am

Either desalinasation or pumping aquifers dry.. cheap oil, or what did you think? Africa (including North Africa) imports 50%, South America 30%, the Middle East 40% on average. The rest of Asia (excluding Russia)break even more or less. All others export.

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Apuleius on July 27, 2006 - 12:05am

There's a region of Saudi that gets pretty green in winter. Enough for one spring harvest.

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sendoilplease on July 25, 2006 - 6:22pm

I was saying the poster was naive, not "France" as a whole necessarily (at least not likely any more naive than any other First world Tribe).

I could not care less that the French Mooned Bush over Iraq (I doubt many people noticed or cared what the French position was except their Islamic Population), or where they buy their subs, or who they will look to for protection in the next war, etc, etc...

The Socialist French have been conditioned to rely on Government to provide for everything including jobs with multiple weeks of paid holidays etc ... They have become a Nation of Nipple Seekers (a growing problem here in the United States as well - just read the whimpers of the bewildered 'victims' of the power outages in St. Louis and elsewhere.)

They and the majority of other First Worlder's like them will be very surprised as the symptoms of Peak Oil overwhelm their pansy political and economic systems.

Of course at that TimezUP, the calm, complacent tone of the French poster child above will be long gone and replaced by the Angry, Protesting, Irrational and Very Skeered Nipple Seeker looking for a scapegoat to be punished... see the Recent History of the French Domestic Legion (a.k.a. Nipple-Seekers Brigade) in Action Protesting any change to their beloved Welfare State:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4865034.stm

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TheRedBaron on July 26, 2006 - 2:28am

The current French governement is not socialist and most town councils in the south are right-wing by French standards. But the welfare system is broadly supported by all parties. In France, if you are hungry go to the local restuarants for the homeless. Eat well with free wine. If you want somewhere to live, ask the local council. If you want medical treatment, go to the hospital which is legally ablidged to treat you regardless of nationality or status. These standards are in France regarded as essential for human dignity. One of the Republican values is Fraternity. Liberty and equality are the other two. And these values are as respected as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
Vive La France

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sendoilplease on July 26, 2006 - 10:40am

Read your post here again and notice it supports what I said above:

"The Socialist French have been conditioned to rely on Government to provide for everything ..." - now including, according to you, free wine with meals for the homeless etc, etc

My whole point is people must stop depending on their government for everything. If you depend on your government you will regret it because the governments will Not Solve this problem (they are stupid humans too).

The LESS dependence on government the better = become as energy (and food) self-sufficient as possible or SUFFER with the Mass Herd of Saps who sat around waiting for the Godz of Politics and Technology to show up.

Here, at this point in History we can AFFORD to be humane and generous. This is PEAK Energy and Matter - this is the Time of Plenty.

But all those nice Luxuries like "Human Dignity" will be quickly tossed aside when the cities can't Afford To Pay for indigents let alone the actual working peoples.

This is not matter of Choice - we would all love to have a world of plenty forever. But that will not be the case.

By the way, how goes the Tent Cities of Homeless springing up all over Paris - tolerance of the homeless depends on how visible they are, or how inconvenient they become ... love those desperate poor moozlimz in the suburbs until they "protest" and start burning those suburbs...

Dream your dream as long as you want but when you wake up to the nightmare that is coming you will understand that all your morals and ethics were easy to adhere to During The Time of Plenty... too bad the Time of Plenty is rapidly drawing to a close.

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slx on July 26, 2006 - 9:22am

Well, in France the government isn't entirely the corporations' bitch. The French have the odd notion that, being a democracy, it is their government and if it gets out of line, you protest. They also think they are human beings with rights, not throw-away cogs in the economy. If that is the "democracy" that the glorious US Army is purported to bring to the People of Iraq, I'm not surprised that they are reacting a tiny bit pissed. If your style of democracy is laughed at by an ex-KGB-man, you're doubleplusungoodly immersed in doublespeak.

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TheRedBaron on July 26, 2006 - 2:06am

Not just the English. The population of South-east France is increasing by about 40,000 people per year all through emigartion from the north. British, Scandinavians, and Irish are the most common with US citizens next. Canadians come on homiday but are not buying in yet.
Water is not a problem since rainfall is about 30 inches per year almost all in Spring and Autumn. The reservoirs are filled in spring when snow melts in the Alps where population density is nearly zero. Some small villages have restrictions on water use for swimming pools but this is generally due to municipal corruption rather than nature.
Someone accused me of being naive. I don't think so and I'm here enjoying a great civilisation that looks sustainable.

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p on July 26, 2006 - 7:30am

The whole of Europe migth turn out to be a good place to be: It has the least erosion problems of all continents. It's climate is (partly) controlled by the Gulf Stream, which might (again, partly) mitigate the worst effects of global warming. It's ethnical wars are mostly already fought.

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neuroil on July 26, 2006 - 6:00am

I don't agree at all with this view. France is utterly depedant on foreign commerce. It's growth is tiny, about 2%, which means skyrocketing debt. Our economy is dependant as any on oil as people continue to use their cars (look at the A6 next WE), farmers continue to heavily fertilize the soils not to speak of pesticides, chemical industry continuing to prosper, transportation of goods relying mainly on trucks and being totally irrationnal in its planning. I could go on very long. Hydro is at a maximum, Uranium is up and probably past peak.

Our economy is already faltering, poverty increases (which I directly witness every day). People eating one meal or less per day become widespread. Access to social help becomes really difficult for a lot of people.

We will suffer as much as the rest of the world. Haven't you noticed how much stealing of raw materials and gasoline is up ?

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 26, 2006 - 8:14am

I will point out that every French city of over 250,000 that "voted correctly" is getting a new tram line, and those over 500,000 are getting two.

The French are building at least as much Urban Rail as the US. But French Unions at SCNF seem to be keeping freight on trucks instead of rail.

My old worksheet

City, Date Opened, Metro Population, City Populstion

Nantes (1985) 544,932 277,728
Grenoble (1987) 419,334 156,203

Upgraded established tramways (with original dates)
Lille (1874) 1,000,900 191,164
Marseille (1876) 1,349,772 807,071
St. Etienne (1881) 291,960 183,552

The new tramways in France are :(from 1990):
Near Paris 9,644,507 2,147,857 :
T1 (St Denis Bobigny) open : June 30, 1992
T2 (Issy -La Défebse) open : july 1997.

Strasbourg : first line open : november 26, 1994;    427,245     267,051
Rouen : first line open : december 17, 1994;    389,862     108,758
Montpellier : first line open : July 1st, 2000    287,981     229,055
Orléans : first line open : november 18, 2000    263,292     116,559
Lyon : first line open : december 8, 2000    1,262,223     453,187
Bordeaux : first line open : december 2003, 21    696,364     218,948

Future opening :
Mulhouse : december 2005    234,445     112,002
Valenciennes : june 2006    357,395     40,275
Le Mans : 2006    NA    150,605
Nice : 2006    888,784 345,892
Marseille : 2007    1,230,936     807,071
Toulon : 2009    519,640     166,442

Planned :
Dijon    236,953     153,813
Tours    NA    137,046

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TheRedBaron on July 26, 2006 - 8:57am

The EEC wascreated to increase foreign trade in Europe which is why every member state depends upon trade. Not everything is perfect but France is better prepared than other countries. TOD users in other countries are pleading for light rail and tramways mostly in vain. France is getting them. And the TGV (High Speed Train) is superbe. The French elite talk sensibly about fossil fuel shortages abd Global Warming whereas US politicians try to keep everybody ignorant and happy.
Economic policy is now governed by the wunch of bankers who govern the European Central Bank. Like most other EU governments the national government can only advocate not act. This too was an EEC objective - to undo democratic ideals descended from the French revolution.

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rustymason on July 25, 2006 - 6:23pm

Cannibalism?

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286 comments on DrumBeat: July 25, 2006

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“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…”

—Winston Churchill, November 1936