I'm going to respond to this unchivalrous remark in a cynical ploy to get my opinions near the top of the thread. I believe that peak oil is going to look, at least for the first decade or so, like a series of wars, energy crises, and recessions/depressions, probably punctuated by some reasonably good years, and with Western society essentially intact and functioning more-or-less as it does currently. In short, the next decade is more of the same (high gas prices, wars in ME, etc) only probably worse. Things could improve somewhat if we got a mostly rational government in the US. Beyond a decade or so it's extremely hard to tell what will happen because technological innovation will increasingly come into play in a way that's hard to predict whether it will be sufficient or not.
Thus moving to the country, growing your own food, etc are a waste of time (unless you particularly like living in the country and growing your own food in which case of course you should do them).
Staying out of debt, spending less than you earn, and having a job that will be still needed in an economic downturn are good ideas for difficult times. If your field is politics, there's a lot you can contribute since our current collective irrational response to our situation is the greatest danger.
Yes, sane PO-aware people in government or advising people in government can hopefully steer us away from the cliff. And Stuart is right about technology being the big unknown.
Our various predictions about mob psychology, modern assumptions and abilities leave even those similar enough to end up at this site in constant disagreement about the expected reactions of individuals, communities and nations as we go into these 'interesting times'..
How do we answer a child of seventeen when she asks what kind of future will there be?
Perhaps I would tell her that we will know our families better. That her father should be listened to and her mother, she should obey. And to trust her friends and help them as much as possible. That she should find a passion to believe in. That she should trust her heart but use her head. Good instinct tells us which is which and I would counsel her to develop her instincts by learning what is true and what is a lie. And that a lie will trap her.
I would also tell her to learn the value of silence. That if you silently listen you can hear the truth and see right action. Of course I would repeat this daily until she understood. Her being seventeen I might have to repeat myself often.
I would suggest she attend the best college she could find. Preferably Berkely or MIT. Fer u wharf... Or an apprenticeship on a working farm learning organic vegetable production.
I would suggest above all to find the beauty in simplicity of lifestyle and honor with friends and family.
But I know that first I would have to reflect this lifesyle or she would not ever believe I knew what I was talking about.
After all.....
We learn from example.
I guess that is up to us.
we're screwed.... our example has created implosion as a distinct possibility. its up to us to find the best way out of this mess using our intellect, instinct and imagination. a lot of what we are going to lose we do not need in the first place for a happy life.
simplify, organize and exercize. the rest will be easy.
For better or for worse, I happen to be 20, in college, and also somewhat obsessive in my consumption of information (loosely focused by the subjects, "energy, society and the environment").
But first, two mistakes I noticed thus far. First, the comment about the the Alpha Male looking for wives is disgusting, sexist and completely unproductive. Second, the post I'm replying to suggests the author of this letter is a child of 17, when the letter clearly states the young woman is 24. 17 or 24 condescension is rarely appreciated (on the other hand, I recognize the wisdom elders hold, and do my best to listen well).
As for "advice," I'll tell you what I've done in the past year and a half in the hopes that you can avoid doing anything equally stupid.
I read a copious amount of information. If you really really feel the need to try and know everything, and think you'll enjoy it, I won't try and stop you. I am certainly far more educated than if I had let my "energy, society and the environment" education rest at EOS or even The Party's Over, but it can take a toll, and if you think you will actually be able to control the future by attempting to know "everything" you may find yourself disappointed.
I rode my bike (almost) everywhere, started buying locally (and from farmers directly) and organically and tried to reduce extraneous consumption. I feel more alive, generally, and think I'll be better prepared (psychologically) for harder times, whenever they come.
I have a girlfriend, who has probably kept me from going crazy trying to know everything as well as provided some grounding in terms of living life (she's a creative writing/art history major, an excellent juxtaposition).
I've begun some activism related to peak oil (and more importantly global warming) at college and am working with others to do more. It is time consuming, frustrating and slow going, but I enjoy it generally and even when I don't I feel duty-bound enough to keep working.
These rough points would suggest that it is best to live in the moment and not get too caught up in the future. Activism can be draining without some larger context into which it fits in one's life (and even then it is a lot of work). I'm working on developing skills, and am going into Biology. Though I don't grow my own food now, I think I may go into the agricultural sciences. Be that as it may, I think there are plenty of viable career options post peak. Adaptation, the new slogan of the Bush Administration/Climate deniers, is a horrible solution to climate change. However, for peak oil, and especially for those who are privileged (one way or another), it is a fact of life. My demand, baring the worst case scenario of the notorious alpha male (Matt Savinar), is probably unlikely to be destroyed outright, curtailed though it may be.
I'm still a completely confused budding twenty-something. I really like being alive (in all its senses), and feel somewhat compelled to do something for the future generations--although not to the point of sacrificing myself in the process overmuch.
I hope that was of some help, and if you want to continue this conversation I can be reached at david doot huck at oberlin dott edu
Re: First, the comment about the the Alpha Male looking for wives is disgusting, sexist and completely unproductive.
My comment was a joke refering to AlphaMaleProphetOfDoom's previous comments. Sure it was disgusting and sexist, but only unproductive if you didn't get the joke.
I would add another point to your list.
5. Develop a sense of humor, especially dark.
Having a sense of humor, eespecially a dark sense of humor, will probably be even more important then all the others for keeping your sanity if things get especially rough.
Amen to that
It's what has kept me sane after 30 years of working in hospitals. Unless I'm not sane. Cops, firefighters, medical first responders; we all have it.
And it helps if you can laugh at yourself once in a while.
Rat
Regarding the "disgusting" comment somebody made about me looking for mulitple wives:
NEWSFLASH FOR DAVIDH: MAJOR CATASTROPHIC ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE UNFOLDING AND YOU'VE GOT YOUR PANTIES IN A BUNCH ABOUT A DUMBASS SIDE COMMENT ON THE INTERNET.
My first guess would be all of it, you are fairly grown up then. It might even be good to have a real problem even if it is a hard problem to get a perspective on the immaterial group status fancies. If he or she is not ready for hard questions and responsibilities he or she will be fairly soon.
But how much of it is not truthfull facts but someones feelings about giving up? Succeding in getting that across could hurt a lot.
Hey, bro :>) How's you? Sell the business yet?
OK, my kid got hers elf into Cal, but now I need to talk her out of being a business major. At least she knows how to kill chickens.
HEY, if she's really good at bidness, and you talk her out of being a bidness major, send me your address so I can come over and kick ya'....
Folks, there is, has always been and will always be bidness....the exact nature of it changes, but bidness of some kind will outlast the cockroaches! :-)
The ultimate business is monkey business.
One of my kids is a business major too. Have not been able to talk them out of it. On occasion, I get to peruse through the scholarly textbooks they read. Some of it is total cult stuff straight out of the Adam Smith church catacombs.
It's OK to study business as long as you do not become part of the cult. "From Good to Great" yeah right, that's where the human race is heading. (--that's the title of one of the "business" books on the reading list)
...gee, I wonder if there are a certain kind of stores where that one is prominently displayed? :-)
By the way, I someday really want to discuss WalMart, but it will have to come at the time when I am ready to be shoved out of here for good....it will be controversial.....
She's too smart for business. Better than a 4.0 in Science; her easiest class last year was Advanced Placement Calculus. Easy, as in "this is my mick".
doin well. i have a email sitting on my desktop for the last four days for you. not really waitin fer an edit but just the rest of the right words.
my peak project is about half through and the businesses being sold are about the middle of the project. one is a few months from closing (at the most) and then the next phase kicks in.
that one involves the relocation out of this unprepared valley. there is a good local grass root organization forming but its character is one that has no roots in know how.
i believe knowhow to be the most basic asset needed so i am moving to an area that has a ton of basic knowhow wrapped in mechanical ability. farmers.
they have knowhow. and get the job done.
so that is where i am goin. some farming field with mountains around it. and grow the biggest acorn squash and tomatoes possible without chemicals.
this years garden is kickin butt.
93 tomato plants
450 corn plants
rows of beans and beets
That's great advice from Stuart. I would just add, keep in mind that the future is uncertain and unknowable. Never succumb to despair. Chances are nothing will go precisely as anyone here foresees. At least, I have yet to meet someone with an accurate crystal ball. Stuart's advice amounts to being prepared for surprises, and that is always wise.
Also, do not fill your mind with negativity, or it will make you a negative person. Developing personal connections, friends and family, will be far more valuable than obsessing over every fluctuation in oil supply.
...growing your own food, etc are a waste of time...
I agree with all you say but this.
It takes several growing seasons to set up the space, obtain the skills, and get a sustainable gardening system in place. The time to start this practice is not when TSHTF, but well in advance. Beginners underestimate the challenges of soil and water management, composting, seed starting and saving, and weed/critter/bug controls.
And there are additional benefits to growing food: it's fun, it's challenging, it's educational (especially so with children), and it's a step toward personal energy security, which is a worthwhile persuit regardless of PO. And giving tomatoes, potatoes, and cucumbers to neighbors is a great way to build relationships and accumulate social capital.
Growing your own food can be a great thing anywhere, not just in the country. It is amazing what you can to with a little compost and sunlight in a small area. At least that way you know what you are eating, rather than some industrial stuff pushed out in the supermarket. Like CM said, it's a lot of fun to do with your kids, there are a lot of other ways they could waste their time.
A little more on why I think growing your own food is a waste of time (except as an enjoyable hobby - which it certainly can be). Firstly, I grew quite a bit of my own food in my twenties, and I knew well people who were devoting themselves to CSA farms. I read the Nearings etc ad nauseum. What I figured out is that the amount of money you can save by growing your own food is roughly set by the price of agricultural labor, which is roughly set by the availability of illegal immigrant labor, or the cost of labor growing food in developing countries (plus our egregious tarriffs etc), except reduced by the fact that your small operation will have much poorer economies of scale than a large farm. That labor rate is extremely low, so for educated westerners you can do vastly better by developing some other set of skills that pay much better and buying food. Growing your own food on a large scale is very time consuming, is backbreaking, and takes a long time to learn; that time can almost certainly be used for something else more lucrative (and, at least to my taste, more interesting).
Is this going to change post peak? Well, presumably Mexico is going to get much more stressed due to the decline of its oil fields, and so the pressure of illegal immigration is only going to get greater (and I don't believe we can police a 3000 mile border effectively regardless of what congress does). So the wages for agricultural labor are not going to improve, and the economic rewards of growing your own food will remain lousy.
The only scenario I can imagine where growing your own food makes sense anytime soon is if we get into a situation as serious as a broad and longlasting mideast war where global oil production is halved and we end up with large scale rationing of food and fuel (a la WWII). I admit, it no longer seems beyond the stupidity of the current US and Israeli governments to manage to bring this about, but I'm still assessing it as a low probability (the oil markets agree with me since oil hasn't jumped up very much in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon).
But if it does happen, I might start dusting off my John Jeavons again....
While it is true that Americans currently have an overabundance of food now, it seems likely that there will be a substantial decrease in our food supply, despite the availability of cheap agricultural labor.
Fossil fuel inputs are such an important part of American agricultural production that is is hard to imagine that the price of food will not increase dramatically.
Consider the fact that the high yields of modern day agriculture are dependent on fertilizer, herbicides, and pesticides derived from fossil fuel inputs. Then there is the mechanized farm equipment and the trucks needed to transport the food to market. Modern irrigation methods are highly dependent on energy inputs. Add to that the effects of a depletion of fresh water supplies from a growing U.S. population and global warming.
From what I've read, agricultural labor accounts for only 5% to 10% of the cost of produce. IMO, it is a great misconception by white collar workers that illegal aliens are a force for keeping produce affordable. If the labor component for produce is 10% of the cost, a $2 head of lettuce includes 20 cents for labor. Doubling the salary of such a worker, from say $6 an hour to $12 an hours would only increase to cost for the lettuce head to roughly $2.40.
I honestly don't see that the abundance of our food supply can be anything like its current state. I readily admit as a medical scientist steeped in the lore of the biological limits of growth that I have a Malthusian bent. Nonetheless, this question of agricultural limitations should be subject to same level of detailed mathematical analyses that are regular fare on this blog for oil production.
Please excuse my error, I meant to say a doubling of salary would put the final cost at $2.20. A cost of $2.40 would reflect a tripling of wages, equivalent to $18 an hour in the example given.
I have a small organic garden at high altitude and a green house. I am gradually increasing the fertility and utility of the soil each year. I compost all uncooked vegetable trimmings and waste. I have great fun growing and eating kale, tomatoes, snow peas, bush beans, edamame, various lettuces, strawberries, arugula, and on and on. I have no attention of becoming self sufficient but gardening plus belonging to a CSA makes me healthier and is much better for the planet as far as energy conumption goes that buying all my food at the typical supermarket, whether it be organic or not.
I have no illusions about becoming self sufficient but it is clear that we would all be better off if everyone at least did some organic gardening and composting. And who knows, this might assuage some of the pain when peak oil really hits the fan.
The amount of labor to do all my gardening is extremely minimal, in part because of the lack of weeding required where I live. Losses from insects have been extremely minimal. I "share" the garden with a few ground squirrels who also do rather minimal damage. If I were a carnivore, I guess I could eat them. Unfortunately, some of their lives have been terminated by my cat even though she is fenced in.
If the decline rate is 4%, that halves production in 17.5 years or so.
On top of the usual decline rate, I think it reasonable to expect further/additional disruptions due to war/terrorism and weather. (More Katrina-type events)
So that bumps it up to 6% let's say, halving the supply in 11.5 years.
If the decline rate is 8% (as some have speculated) plus anohter 2-3% due to terrorism/war and weather plus then we're looking at a 50% cut in 7 years.
Having talked to farmers and gardners, 7 years is not very long considering how much you have to learn.
So how can you say growing one's food is a waste of time unless we get a 50% cut when a 50% inside of 7-10 years is somewhere between possible and probable?
Don't get me wrong: what you said about growing ones food is all true. About a year ago I went out and purchased all the things I need to grow a couple of pumpkins here on the concrete slab in front of apartment which is located on a busy street. Then I realized I was fooling myself the two pumpkins I might be able to grow would A) not make a dent in my consumption and B) likely be stolen by the local thugs. I ascertained would be better off working to make money to move to an area better suited for sustainability.
But, quite frankly, I was stunned to see you characertize it as a "waste of time" particulary given that we very well could be looking at a 50% cut within a relatively short period of time.
Instances of drought across the U.S. are ALREADY affecting supply. Just how much longer will large underground aquifers like Ogalalla hold out? Deffeyes makes a good point that these types of aquifers are much like oil itself - they represent the collection of a precious substance which takes millions of years to form yet we consume it in a geological flash.
If by war having the opposite effect on depletion you mean demand destruction via population reduction from war-related fatalities then that seems like a strange way to view the consequences of war. By that logic we should be rooting for pestilence too.
I'm sorry, I said supply in response to Matt's otherwise excellent post. I should have said reserves which is usually a given around here when depletion is mentioned.
and no I didn't mean demand destruction and population reduction due to war. I simply tried to state the obvious. if there is war in the middle east, less oil will be pumped, less oil pumped, more in the ground, simple. as far as rooting for pestilence, a cheap shot, I'm borderline pacifist. neopacifist? antiwar!
thou shalt not kill for oil
Stuart. Growing your own food isn't about labor value. To frame it that way is to miss the point. It's like Ghandi's spinning, it's a philosophy, a way of examining life.
You could apply the same market valuation to formal education.
Of what use is this or that degree? Someone from India can/will pursue this research or knowledge more cheaply. Does that make the quest of less value to you? It shouldn't.
The Amish have an interesting belief about tools. It goes to the effect that a tool has two ends. The business end changes the task. The other changes the user. More broadly, the relationship to task is what builds community... the relationship to tool builds ego.
An immigrant will work your field more cheaply. But not an Amish-man's. How does that build your community? That is the real question. The money is going to be either inflated or deflated back to paper when TSHTF.
I'm glad to see you discouraging home gardening, for that means many of the prestigious, pretentious folks that grace the Oil Drum forums will be starving in the near future.
Most food production in the US revolves around a highly mechanized system almost completely reliant on cheap fossil fuel. While it is true that people paid virtually slave wages are charged with the harvesting of many fruits and vegetables, the vast majority of our protein and carbohydrates, i.e. most of our calories, come from wheat, corn, various livestock and fishstocks all of which are not at the mercy of immigrant labor, but which are all fossil fuel dependent.
While you may think that you will somehow magically be able to skip participation in the farm economy or somehow do without food, I kind of think that your special status as a special person will not pay off in special consideration of your special caloric needs.
By all means, ignore the actual physical structure of our farm economy and the clearly evident resulting dearth of calories should oil supply be compromised. I am sure that everyone in Chicago will be perfectly willing to share some of their food with you, even as you heap disdain upon them.
I propose to buy food using money, in the customary manner. If money stops working, things will be at a point were your organic garden is not likely to do you much good either.
Support family farms. Find a local farmers market and shop there.
The alternative is to support and subscribe to the system Cherenkov accurately describes: pure, blind American consumerism. But your choices are yours.
The point of the Victory Garden that Stuart seems to be missing is that although it did not meet all our food needs it did make a serious difference to both the amount and variety of food we could eat.
It is not as black and white as grow all or none. Grow some.
Learning the skills on a small plot now could do you a great favor further down the line.
Thus moving to the country, growing your own food, etc are a waste of time (unless you particularly like living in the country and growing your own food in which case of course you should do them).
Staying out of debt, spending less than you earn, and having a job that will be still needed in an economic downturn are good ideas for difficult times. If your field is politics, there's a lot you can contribute since our current collective irrational response to our situation is the greatest danger.
Our various predictions about mob psychology, modern assumptions and abilities leave even those similar enough to end up at this site in constant disagreement about the expected reactions of individuals, communities and nations as we go into these 'interesting times'..
The mood of the country is very depressed. Perhaps the Paradigm shift is closer than we think.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Perhaps I would tell her that we will know our families better. That her father should be listened to and her mother, she should obey. And to trust her friends and help them as much as possible. That she should find a passion to believe in. That she should trust her heart but use her head. Good instinct tells us which is which and I would counsel her to develop her instincts by learning what is true and what is a lie. And that a lie will trap her.
I would also tell her to learn the value of silence. That if you silently listen you can hear the truth and see right action. Of course I would repeat this daily until she understood. Her being seventeen I might have to repeat myself often.
I would suggest she attend the best college she could find. Preferably Berkely or MIT. Fer u wharf... Or an apprenticeship on a working farm learning organic vegetable production.
I would suggest above all to find the beauty in simplicity of lifestyle and honor with friends and family.
But I know that first I would have to reflect this lifesyle or she would not ever believe I knew what I was talking about.
After all.....
We learn from example.
I guess that is up to us.
we're screwed.... our example has created implosion as a distinct possibility. its up to us to find the best way out of this mess using our intellect, instinct and imagination. a lot of what we are going to lose we do not need in the first place for a happy life.
simplify, organize and exercize. the rest will be easy.
bill
But first, two mistakes I noticed thus far. First, the comment about the the Alpha Male looking for wives is disgusting, sexist and completely unproductive. Second, the post I'm replying to suggests the author of this letter is a child of 17, when the letter clearly states the young woman is 24. 17 or 24 condescension is rarely appreciated (on the other hand, I recognize the wisdom elders hold, and do my best to listen well).
As for "advice," I'll tell you what I've done in the past year and a half in the hopes that you can avoid doing anything equally stupid.
- I read a copious amount of information. If you really really feel the need to try and know everything, and think you'll enjoy it, I won't try and stop you. I am certainly far more educated than if I had let my "energy, society and the environment" education rest at EOS or even The Party's Over, but it can take a toll, and if you think you will actually be able to control the future by attempting to know "everything" you may find yourself disappointed.
- I rode my bike (almost) everywhere, started buying locally (and from farmers directly) and organically and tried to reduce extraneous consumption. I feel more alive, generally, and think I'll be better prepared (psychologically) for harder times, whenever they come.
- I have a girlfriend, who has probably kept me from going crazy trying to know everything as well as provided some grounding in terms of living life (she's a creative writing/art history major, an excellent juxtaposition).
- I've begun some activism related to peak oil (and more importantly global warming) at college and am working with others to do more. It is time consuming, frustrating and slow going, but I enjoy it generally and even when I don't I feel duty-bound enough to keep working.
These rough points would suggest that it is best to live in the moment and not get too caught up in the future. Activism can be draining without some larger context into which it fits in one's life (and even then it is a lot of work). I'm working on developing skills, and am going into Biology. Though I don't grow my own food now, I think I may go into the agricultural sciences. Be that as it may, I think there are plenty of viable career options post peak. Adaptation, the new slogan of the Bush Administration/Climate deniers, is a horrible solution to climate change. However, for peak oil, and especially for those who are privileged (one way or another), it is a fact of life. My demand, baring the worst case scenario of the notorious alpha male (Matt Savinar), is probably unlikely to be destroyed outright, curtailed though it may be.I'm still a completely confused budding twenty-something. I really like being alive (in all its senses), and feel somewhat compelled to do something for the future generations--although not to the point of sacrificing myself in the process overmuch.
I hope that was of some help, and if you want to continue this conversation I can be reached at david doot huck at oberlin dott edu
-David
My comment was a joke refering to AlphaMaleProphetOfDoom's previous comments. Sure it was disgusting and sexist, but only unproductive if you didn't get the joke.
I would add another point to your list.
5. Develop a sense of humor, especially dark.
Having a sense of humor, eespecially a dark sense of humor, will probably be even more important then all the others for keeping your sanity if things get especially rough.
It's what has kept me sane after 30 years of working in hospitals. Unless I'm not sane. Cops, firefighters, medical first responders; we all have it.
And it helps if you can laugh at yourself once in a while.
Rat
Regarding the "disgusting" comment somebody made about me looking for mulitple wives:
NEWSFLASH FOR DAVIDH: MAJOR CATASTROPHIC ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE UNFOLDING AND YOU'VE GOT YOUR PANTIES IN A BUNCH ABOUT A DUMBASS SIDE COMMENT ON THE INTERNET.
I was talking to my seventeen year old daughter there......
No mistake about that.
I don't know what to tell her.
How much truth can a seventeen year old stand.
I am 55 and am having a hard enough time with it.
b
My first guess would be all of it, you are fairly grown up then. It might even be good to have a real problem even if it is a hard problem to get a perspective on the immaterial group status fancies. If he or she is not ready for hard questions and responsibilities he or she will be fairly soon.
But how much of it is not truthfull facts but someones feelings about giving up? Succeding in getting that across could hurt a lot.
OK, my kid got hers elf into Cal, but now I need to talk her out of being a business major. At least she knows how to kill chickens.
Rat
HEY, if she's really good at bidness, and you talk her out of being a bidness major, send me your address so I can come over and kick ya'....
Folks, there is, has always been and will always be bidness....the exact nature of it changes, but bidness of some kind will outlast the cockroaches! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
One of my kids is a business major too. Have not been able to talk them out of it. On occasion, I get to peruse through the scholarly textbooks they read. Some of it is total cult stuff straight out of the Adam Smith church catacombs.
It's OK to study business as long as you do not become part of the cult. "From Good to Great" yeah right, that's where the human race is heading. (--that's the title of one of the "business" books on the reading list)
" "From Good to Great" yeah right, that's where the human race is heading."
Still you got to consider the inverse....would anybody buy a bidness
book called "From Bad to Rotten." :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
The Wal-Mart Way
...gee, I wonder if there are a certain kind of stores where that one is prominently displayed? :-)
By the way, I someday really want to discuss WalMart, but it will have to come at the time when I am ready to be shoved out of here for good....it will be controversial.....
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
my peak project is about half through and the businesses being sold are about the middle of the project. one is a few months from closing (at the most) and then the next phase kicks in.
that one involves the relocation out of this unprepared valley. there is a good local grass root organization forming but its character is one that has no roots in know how.
i believe knowhow to be the most basic asset needed so i am moving to an area that has a ton of basic knowhow wrapped in mechanical ability. farmers.
they have knowhow. and get the job done.
so that is where i am goin. some farming field with mountains around it. and grow the biggest acorn squash and tomatoes possible without chemicals.
this years garden is kickin butt.
93 tomato plants
450 corn plants
rows of beans and beets
i will tell you about it in the mail.
cheers
bill
Also, do not fill your mind with negativity, or it will make you a negative person. Developing personal connections, friends and family, will be far more valuable than obsessing over every fluctuation in oil supply.
I agree with all you say but this.
It takes several growing seasons to set up the space, obtain the skills, and get a sustainable gardening system in place. The time to start this practice is not when TSHTF, but well in advance. Beginners underestimate the challenges of soil and water management, composting, seed starting and saving, and weed/critter/bug controls.
And there are additional benefits to growing food: it's fun, it's challenging, it's educational (especially so with children), and it's a step toward personal energy security, which is a worthwhile persuit regardless of PO. And giving tomatoes, potatoes, and cucumbers to neighbors is a great way to build relationships and accumulate social capital.
Is this going to change post peak? Well, presumably Mexico is going to get much more stressed due to the decline of its oil fields, and so the pressure of illegal immigration is only going to get greater (and I don't believe we can police a 3000 mile border effectively regardless of what congress does). So the wages for agricultural labor are not going to improve, and the economic rewards of growing your own food will remain lousy.
The only scenario I can imagine where growing your own food makes sense anytime soon is if we get into a situation as serious as a broad and longlasting mideast war where global oil production is halved and we end up with large scale rationing of food and fuel (a la WWII). I admit, it no longer seems beyond the stupidity of the current US and Israeli governments to manage to bring this about, but I'm still assessing it as a low probability (the oil markets agree with me since oil hasn't jumped up very much in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon).
But if it does happen, I might start dusting off my John Jeavons again....
Fossil fuel inputs are such an important part of American agricultural production that is is hard to imagine that the price of food will not increase dramatically.
Consider the fact that the high yields of modern day agriculture are dependent on fertilizer, herbicides, and pesticides derived from fossil fuel inputs. Then there is the mechanized farm equipment and the trucks needed to transport the food to market. Modern irrigation methods are highly dependent on energy inputs. Add to that the effects of a depletion of fresh water supplies from a growing U.S. population and global warming.
From what I've read, agricultural labor accounts for only 5% to 10% of the cost of produce. IMO, it is a great misconception by white collar workers that illegal aliens are a force for keeping produce affordable. If the labor component for produce is 10% of the cost, a $2 head of lettuce includes 20 cents for labor. Doubling the salary of such a worker, from say $6 an hour to $12 an hours would only increase to cost for the lettuce head to roughly $2.40.
I honestly don't see that the abundance of our food supply can be anything like its current state. I readily admit as a medical scientist steeped in the lore of the biological limits of growth that I have a Malthusian bent. Nonetheless, this question of agricultural limitations should be subject to same level of detailed mathematical analyses that are regular fare on this blog for oil production.
I have no illusions about becoming self sufficient but it is clear that we would all be better off if everyone at least did some organic gardening and composting. And who knows, this might assuage some of the pain when peak oil really hits the fan.
The amount of labor to do all my gardening is extremely minimal, in part because of the lack of weeding required where I live. Losses from insects have been extremely minimal. I "share" the garden with a few ground squirrels who also do rather minimal damage. If I were a carnivore, I guess I could eat them. Unfortunately, some of their lives have been terminated by my cat even though she is fenced in.
If the decline rate is 4%, that halves production in 17.5 years or so.
On top of the usual decline rate, I think it reasonable to expect further/additional disruptions due to war/terrorism and weather. (More Katrina-type events)
So that bumps it up to 6% let's say, halving the supply in 11.5 years.
If the decline rate is 8% (as some have speculated) plus anohter 2-3% due to terrorism/war and weather plus then we're looking at a 50% cut in 7 years.
Having talked to farmers and gardners, 7 years is not very long considering how much you have to learn.
So how can you say growing one's food is a waste of time unless we get a 50% cut when a 50% inside of 7-10 years is somewhere between possible and probable?
Don't get me wrong: what you said about growing ones food is all true. About a year ago I went out and purchased all the things I need to grow a couple of pumpkins here on the concrete slab in front of apartment which is located on a busy street. Then I realized I was fooling myself the two pumpkins I might be able to grow would A) not make a dent in my consumption and B) likely be stolen by the local thugs. I ascertained would be better off working to make money to move to an area better suited for sustainability.
But, quite frankly, I was stunned to see you characertize it as a "waste of time" particulary given that we very well could be looking at a 50% cut within a relatively short period of time.
If by war having the opposite effect on depletion you mean demand destruction via population reduction from war-related fatalities then that seems like a strange way to view the consequences of war. By that logic we should be rooting for pestilence too.
and no I didn't mean demand destruction and population reduction due to war. I simply tried to state the obvious. if there is war in the middle east, less oil will be pumped, less oil pumped, more in the ground, simple. as far as rooting for pestilence, a cheap shot, I'm borderline pacifist. neopacifist? antiwar!
thou shalt not kill for oil
You could apply the same market valuation to formal education.
Of what use is this or that degree? Someone from India can/will pursue this research or knowledge more cheaply. Does that make the quest of less value to you? It shouldn't.
The Amish have an interesting belief about tools. It goes to the effect that a tool has two ends. The business end changes the task. The other changes the user. More broadly, the relationship to task is what builds community... the relationship to tool builds ego.
An immigrant will work your field more cheaply. But not an Amish-man's. How does that build your community? That is the real question. The money is going to be either inflated or deflated back to paper when TSHTF.
Keep your hands off my cabbages.
Most food production in the US revolves around a highly mechanized system almost completely reliant on cheap fossil fuel. While it is true that people paid virtually slave wages are charged with the harvesting of many fruits and vegetables, the vast majority of our protein and carbohydrates, i.e. most of our calories, come from wheat, corn, various livestock and fishstocks all of which are not at the mercy of immigrant labor, but which are all fossil fuel dependent.
While you may think that you will somehow magically be able to skip participation in the farm economy or somehow do without food, I kind of think that your special status as a special person will not pay off in special consideration of your special caloric needs.
By all means, ignore the actual physical structure of our farm economy and the clearly evident resulting dearth of calories should oil supply be compromised. I am sure that everyone in Chicago will be perfectly willing to share some of their food with you, even as you heap disdain upon them.
The alternative is to support and subscribe to the system Cherenkov accurately describes: pure, blind American consumerism. But your choices are yours.
Why not a "Peak Garden"?
I can think of hundreds of reasons why to grow a garden.
and no reason not to.
It is not as black and white as grow all or none. Grow some.
Learning the skills on a small plot now could do you a great favor further down the line.