<DrumBeat: August 7, 2006The Oil DrumDrumBeat: August 8, 2006>

185 comments on Prudhoe Bay Open Thread and News Dump 2

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davidsmi on August 7, 2006 - 6:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The number of people who will be able to prepare for the downfall will never be more than a handful. Most people in the world are too damn poor to have the option to prepare. Most people in the U.S. and other developed countries are too vested (financially and or psychically) in the way things are now to prepare. The more time until the collapse the more opportunity for people to screw up the environment. Yes, there will be lots of suffering, but a later collapse could well mean more suffering . At a minimum there would be more people to suffer and die.

On the issue of children, please do not succomb to fatalism. Even in the worst of times there are joys in being alive. Having children is one of those joys. My wife and I started a little late (in our forties), but recently adopted a little boy and have started paperwork on a second adoption. I know that they will not have the physical comforts in their adulthood that I had in mine. But that is not necessarily a bad thing. They will have opportunities to build a new world, if I can encourage them to gain the skills needed in a changed world. It is those who are most attached to our materialistic values who will have the hardest time surviving, them and the billions of very poor.
(Trying hard there to recognize my privelage in being born when and where I was.)

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shepseskaf on August 7, 2006 - 8:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In my view, it will be the poor who will actually be better prepared for the crash. It is they who have to "make do" with very little, so for them not much will change.

I read a blog a few months ago written by a gentleman who lived for a few months in a rural area in Bangladesh. It was his assessment that they would be far better prepared for the advent of Peak Oil -- even though they weren't as informed as their western counterparts -- because they were almost completly self-sufficient. He stated that he would consider moving there when TSHTF rather than staying in the US.

I can't think of a population in history that will be more ill-prepared to deal with collapse than Americans. Completely pampered, with unreasonable expectations in terms of an acceptable standard of living, the stark reality of chronic deprivation is going to hit hard.

On kids: I'm in my early 40s and don't have any, nor do I plan to. I cannot in good conscience bring a life into the world with the realization of the brutal future that today's society faces.

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GreyZone on August 7, 2006 - 8:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Moving to Bangladesh would be a mistake in my estimation purely due to population density. Aim for a lower population density to avoid the probability of infectious diseases and such if modern systems break down.
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Darwinian on August 7, 2006 - 9:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I am wearing a baseball cap, the tag inside it reads: "Made in Bangladesh." Bangladesh is one of the most densley populated places on earth and most of the city dwellers live by manufacturing exports, mostly clothing.

If you are looking for a safe place after the crash, Bangladesh would be one of the worse places you could possibly choose.

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shepseskaf on August 7, 2006 - 10:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I hear both of you. Bangladesh wouldn't be my choice either - I was just reporting what was said. I would tend to favor some of the less-densely populated Caribbean islands.

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Zanth on August 8, 2006 - 1:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Bangladesh is also a bad choice because the whole country is just a few feet above sea level.  If the oceans rise 20 feet then most of the country will be below sealevel and possibly underwater.  Ditto with most Caribbean islands.  Sorry to burst your bubble there, buddy :P

The best choices, IMO, are countries that still have large surpluses of oil and gas.  But they also run the risk of being invaded too, so it's a little give-and-take.

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shepseskaf on August 8, 2006 - 8:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well, we have more than a few good estimates on when Peak Oil will occur (or when its already occurred), but are there any educated guesses as to when the oceans will rise 20' due to Global Warming? As I understand it, such an event isn't as imminent as Peak Oil, though I'm not as well informed on that subject.

I'll say this: if the oceans do rise 20', a lot more places than Bangladesh and the Caribbean islands will be in deep trouble. I guess we just have to pick our poisons. No place is going to be perfect in the coming collapse scenarios.

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odograph on August 8, 2006 - 1:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think the estimate used to be 20' over a century, but I don't keep up with this at all.  I do know there is a bunch of good stuff at the RealClimate site:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?s=sea+level&submit=Search

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shepseskaf on August 8, 2006 - 4:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I appreciate the link, odograph. That's a great source.

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Apuleius on August 7, 2006 - 11:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Bangladesh is the world's source of burlap, whose value is already increasing (because of people who prefer biodegradable burlap), and which will increase more post peak-oil. So long as some world trade is going on, the Bengalis will have a piece of the action.

Also, Bengali Islamic jurisprudence has reconciled itself to the necessity of stabilizing the population (although our Wahabbi Saudi friends are hard at work undoing that..), so the local culture has at least some chance of organizing their society to a stable condition.

I'm still not eager to join them, but they do have some chance.

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