Shipping half of the GoM off-shore rigs to the Saudi part of the Persian Gulf will not help future US NG production.

The lost rigs may tip the balance on future domestic US NG production.  Either to a steeper decline (my guess) or the delta between a flat to slightly rising production vs. modest declines.

That is very odd. Why need off-shore rigs if you have 2 mbd of Daniel-Yergin-spare-capacity? And if you insist like the Saudi's do that you have no production problems? Land based production, that is.

I think it was discussed before on TOD but this is a clear indication of where SA production stands now.

Most of the rigs that are being moved to Saudi are rigs for shallow Gulf waters, which have been pretty well explored. Our illustrious government has just opened the deep waters in most of the GOM to exploration, and the Gulf is prone to gas production. There are not enough drill ships to handle that acreage and the lease sales are just beginning.So once again I will get to operate my perfect 20/20 hindsight in five years or so, but I think prospects of increased production are pretty good.