<Khosla Responds: "Imagining the Future of Gasoline: Reality or Blue-sky Dreaming?"The Oil DrumIs a Wall of Oil Heading for the Market?>
<DrumBeat: August 9, 2006DrumBeatDrumBeat: August 11, 2006>

337 comments on DrumBeat: August 10, 2006

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

RickD on August 10, 2006 - 8:20am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
This question is mainly for westexas and was buried in yesterday's open forum:

Which countries are in the top 10 exporting countries?

Thanks in advance,
Rick

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
westexas on August 10, 2006 - 8:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is a good article that has a list of the top exporters (in 2004).  If you look at current EIA crude + condensate data, seven of the top ten are showing declines since December.  The other three are flat.

http://www.energybulletin.net/18475.html

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
RickD on August 10, 2006 - 9:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Canada is not on that list.  Are they not an net exporter?  Or are they just not in the top 14?

Rick

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
westexas on August 10, 2006 - 10:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Canada is a big exporter on the West side, big importer on the East side.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Asebius on August 10, 2006 - 12:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, Canada is a net exporter.  It just doesn't export that much on a net basis.  Not enough to put it in the top 14.

Of course, listening to Canadian leaders lately, one could be excused if they were led to think otherwise.

Our prime minister recently talked up the nation as a new "emerging enery superpower".

Who knows, someday we may overtake tiny Qatar!

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 1:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
For 2004, which is the last complete data set from the EIA, Canada comes in at number 16, with 840,000 barrels per day of exports. In 2005 their exports were 820,000 barrels per day, but I can't compare this to any other countries, since Mexico is the only other country that the EIA reports 2005 numbers for.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
JustZisGuy on August 10, 2006 - 8:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Huh?  According to this EIA page in May 2006 Canada exported 1.868 million barrels of crude oil per day to the United States alone!

Do oil sands not count?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 10:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Canadian tar sands production is over 1 million bpd currently, it is counted as part of their total crude production of approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. Add to this RPG,NGPL, and other liquids and you get 3.135 mmbpd "all liquids" daily production in 2004. Subtract 2.294 mmbpd consumption in 2004 gives us 841,000 bpd net exports. These are EIA's numbers, my math.

BP's 2005 numbers for Canadian production and consumption basically match these. BP gives 1.6 mmbpd exports in 2005 - matching that figure you found of 1.8 mmbpd in 2006.

Houston, we have a problem. The only explanation I can come up  with is that they are receiving imports of approximately 800,000 bpd from the US. Didn't Westexas say that was the case above somewhere?

Anybody know?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
porsena on August 10, 2006 - 11:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
BP's 2005 figures for Canada (mmbpd):
  Production -  3.047
  Consumption - 2.241
Difference is 806, not far off the 841 figure.

But Canada imports 934 mmbpd (not counting product imports), mainly from Europe. Added to the 806, that gives 1.74 mmbpd as exports. This is intermediate between the two figures above.  

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 11:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think that is exactly the million barrels we were looking for. Thank you.

Now for extra credit, can you explain why? When you say Europe, I'm guessing that's mainly the North Sea? or Russia?

Refining ability? To send the product to the States?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
porsena on August 11, 2006 - 12:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Mainly from the North Sea. Remember that almost all Canada's imports are consumed in Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces.

Product exports Canada->US in 2005 were 558 mbpd on top of the  1643 mbpd crude exports, according to BP. Sorry about the units mixup above.    

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 11, 2006 - 4:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Remember that almost all Canada's imports are consumed in Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces.

What are you, crazy:) How was I supposed to remember that? I didn't even know it to remember it. Seriously. You should post more often here. We really, really like this kind of information. At least I do. Screw up the units all you want, we'll fix'em later.

Why can't Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces get their stuff via pipeline from Western Canada? That's the part I'm unclear about. It really makes more sense to ship crude from Europe rather than pipe it from next door?

Is it possible to make this equation more efficient?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
AlanfromBigEasy on August 11, 2006 - 12:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It is more efficient (net transportation wise) to supply the Upper West (US) & Midwest from Alberta pipelines and Eastern Canada from the sea than vica versa.  Look at a map.

New Orleans would like to barge more oil products up-river instead though.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 11, 2006 - 3:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Absolutely. So the next question is, why do we as intelligent individuals, as a society, allow The Powers That Be to manipulate the numbers so that things can always be something they are not.

We complain about transparency. It is time to clean up our own  back yard.

Canada - (and my beef is not with Canada, it is with us) - Canada exports 840,000 bpd, not 1,840,000. Or, conversely, it does both. But we need a standard for reporting these numbers.   Else the manipulators will run circles around us. They will use any number they want, whenever it suits their purposes.

Are we on the same team?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 11:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks for pointing that out, by the way. You have a future here.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
nrgyman2000 on August 10, 2006 - 4:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The link below

http://energikrise.blogspot.com/2006/07/produsenter-og-eksportrer-av.html

leads to a Norwegian blog that recently posted some diagrams (in English) that shows the worlds 10 biggest producers of hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas) as of 2005 baseed upon BP Statistical Review 2006.

the second diagram shows the world 7 top net exporters of hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas)

Hope it can be of some help.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
mw on August 11, 2006 - 2:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
According to Stats Canada, run rate was 790,000 bbl/day total export Dec 2005.

Breakdown by US destination also available:  
http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/Statistics/CrudeOil_PetroleumProducts/index_e.htm#Year2005

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 11:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Global Oil Exports 1988 - 2003

I stacked the countries to make the graph readable, obviously they are not in order, but you should be able to figure out the top 14. I have to update this for 2004 numbers(maybe 2005, I forget what is currently available). I might actually get around to this today, in which case, I'll list the actual numbers.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
davet on August 10, 2006 - 11:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Interesting. How come they add up to <55%?
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 12:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
45% of oil in the world in consumed domestically. 55% is exported. And this number has been rising since 1988. Although I'll have to update this to know the short-term trend.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Triffin on August 10, 2006 - 3:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
So therefore; "net export capacity" is
still rising if I'm reading your
graph correctly ??

Triffin ..

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 3:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The long-term trend has been rising.

The percentages for the last 6 years on record:

1998- 54.1%
1999- 53.4%
2000- 54.1%
2001- 53.6%
2002- 52.3%
2003- 53.5%
2004- 54.4%

So it looks like net export capacity is currently on a plateau if you look at last 6 years, rising if you use last 3.

Keep in mind the last data is for 2004, 20 months old. If it has been falling since that point, it is unlikely that it is lower than 52%.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Samsara on August 10, 2006 - 3:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The graph I would like to see is country by country of the top 10 say,  one line production, the other internal consumption.

How many of those lines cross?  Hence no exports.

JC

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 3:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm not sure what you are saying. The top ten all export between 1.5 and 9 million barrels per day, which is the difference between their production and their internal consumption. So no lines ever cross, else they wouldn't be exporting. If you can elaborate, I can make graph.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Samsara on August 10, 2006 - 6:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Take Indonesia for example,  it's production line on the graph went up from the lower left hand corner to the upper right.  Their internal consumption did the same.   UNTIL the lines crossed and now(even though their still OPEC?) the are a net importer.

See?

Most people are not aware that countries that produce oil actually use it themselves.   (As stupid as that sounds, I believe it to be true).

John

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on August 10, 2006 - 6:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Right, but they are not in the top ten. Indonesia is a rare example. In my graph above I included them in the "other" category, since, as you point out, their exports have gone negative.

The top 17 exporters ratios are relatively stable. The remaining 20 have changed over the last twenty years, but mostly in order. If I did a line-graph like this I think it would just look like spaghetti.

I'll play with the numbers later and see if I can come up with  something.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
moreoilplease on August 10, 2006 - 12:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It's exports / consumption.  These countries also use some of the oil. (thats at least I my guess at why)
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
davet on August 10, 2006 - 12:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Exports -- missed that. Thanks!
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
nrgyman2000 on August 10, 2006 - 5:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The link below leads to a Norwegian blog with diagrams (in English)

http://energikrise.blogspot.com/2006/06/utvikling-i-global-netto-oljeeksport.html

illustrating (diagram clickable for larger view) the development in net oil exports, by country, for the years 1985 - 2005 based upon BP Statistical Review 2006. Seems like net oil exports has seen little growth since 2003.

Hope it is useful.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.