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326 comments on DrumBeat: September 4, 2006

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Dave Cohen on September 4, 2006 - 10:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Driven By Oil

I haven't heard the quote. I only listened to the first broadcast. Highly recommended.

When I read your Yergin quote, Euan, my first thought was that the heads of the major oil companies were the pessimists! It couldn't apply to Yergin, right? But your interpretation is no doubt correct.

I am dumbfounded that Tom Mangold could make this mistake.

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Euan Mearns on September 4, 2006 - 10:24am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Kind of strange - I just copied and pasted the quote from the article - but on returning to the article a couple of hours later I see its been changed!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5305950.stm

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alistairC on September 4, 2006 - 10:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
ooooh... guess Yergin didn't like being branded a doomer, and his lawyers got on the phone to the BBC...

His name is no longer in the article.

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mikeB on September 4, 2006 - 10:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I saw that, too.

This is big.

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step back on September 4, 2006 - 10:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Those with the gold ... make the rules ... AND re-write history.
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Dragonfly41 on September 4, 2006 - 11:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Did anyone pull off a copy of the article before it was changed?  If so, post it here for all to see and relish.
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mikeB on September 4, 2006 - 11:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That quote CryWolf snatched from oblivion is the money quote.
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Lone Wolf on September 4, 2006 - 11:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
another quote from the article from Geophysicist Rocky Detomo:

"The technology of today and tomorrow can look better and better at the opportunities," he says. "So far there's no limit on finding oil. The technologies can keep up with finding it, but it gets more and more difficult."

that's reassuring. perhaps he could give us some numbers on his limitless findings... i was lead to believe they have been in decline for a few decades now.

sounds more like a Pr-man on damage control then a geophysicist to me.

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Euan Mearns on September 4, 2006 - 11:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Another quote:

There's always the chance for a miracle, but when you're talking about going down 17-18,000 vertical feet, and going out 5 miles, being in temperatures of 350 degrees

The miracle being finding rocks with any porosity and permeability and those depths

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MUDLOGGER on September 4, 2006 - 12:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well why not?

From the Times.

''The Human Brain is Hard - Wired to believe in the Supernatural''.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2342421,00.html

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Dan Ur on September 4, 2006 - 3:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Then I offer you this to think about.

My ex-wife sent it to me.

If you want to comment on it, send me e.mail before you post here.

ceojr1963@yahoo.com

One day a group of scientists got together and decided that man had come a long way and no longer needed God. So they picked one scientist to go and tell Him that they were done with Him.

The scientist walked up to God and said, "God, we've decided that we no longer need you. We're to the point that we can clone people and do many miraculous things, so why don't you just go on and get lost?"

God listened very patiently and kindly to the man. After the scientist was done talking, God said, "Very well, how about this? Let's say we have a man-making contest." To which the scientist replied, "Okay, great!"

But, God added, "Now, we're going to do this just like I did back in the old days with Adam."

The scientist said, "Sure, no problem" and bent down and grabbed himself a handful of dirt.

God looked at him and said, "No, no, no. You go get your own dirt."

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step back on September 4, 2006 - 3:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Good thing that God did not suggest a Planet-destroying contest, like the kind he engaged in with Noah. But then again, when it comes to destroying the Planet, we're pretty good all on our own.
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Splinter on September 4, 2006 - 5:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Dan Ur, thanks for the invitation.

Nice story. As a "practical working hypothesis" I try to relate God with my own self. For me, "get your own dirt" would be a very practical thing (not always nice and easy, too). It requires me to look inside myself, go down in my deep dark cellar and "get the dirt out". Be honest about my own taboos, the 'not said', my biggest fears, worst frustrations, terrible fantasies and strongest beliefs (like religion).

And then, sometimes, when I discover and investigate an unknown part of this dungeon, and see it for what it is, it becomes lighter. A bit like God shows. I remember moments of utmost clearity, intelligence, fulfilment, connectness with my true self and the world around me when this happened. This little girl knows much more about that.

Finding God in the dirt, how does that relate to Oil/Uranium and it's implications?

p.s. Dan, I left the one personal question out and posted here directly. Email's in my profile ;)

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DelusionaL on September 4, 2006 - 3:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
LOL
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Leanan on September 5, 2006 - 8:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Interesting stuff, though I'm not really surprised.  

I am an atheist myself, even in foxholes.  

But that thing about jinxing a no-hitter by talking about it...it's twue, twue!  ;-)

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plucky underdog on September 5, 2006 - 5:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Not always.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=35730

Anadarko Petroleum along with BP and Devon announced a lower Tertiary Gulf of  Mexico oil discovery at its Kaskida prospect ... encountering 800 net feet of hydrocarbon-bearing sands. The well ... was drilled in 5,860 feet of water to a total depth of approximately 32,500 feet using Transocean's semisub, Deepwater Horizon.

Invisible in the big picture I know, but the deepwater GOM Lower Tertiary play will certainly flatten the US decline curve for another ten years or so.

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plucky underdog on September 5, 2006 - 6:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And this

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060905/323/gl7tu.html

SAN RAMON, Calif (AFX) - Chevron Corp said it has completed the deepest successful well test in the Gulf of Mexico, with the Jack 2 well at Walker Ridge Block 758 drilled to a total depth of 28,175 feet.
...
The test sustained a flow rate of more that 6,000 barrels of crude oil per day with the test representing approximately 40 pct of the total net pay measured in the Jack 2 well, Chevron said.
Chevron said the Jack well was completed and tested in 7,000 feet of water, and more than 20,000 feet under the sea floor, breaking Chevron's 2004 Tahiti well test record as the deepest successful well test in the Gulf of Mexico.
...
Chevron and Devon officials estimate that recent discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico's lower-tertiary formations hold more than 3 bln barrels' and perhaps as much as 15 bln' worth of oil and gas reserves, the Journal said.

15 billion barrels = 2.5 years of US consumption

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PaulS on September 4, 2006 - 3:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
mikeB is right:

Last Updated: Sunday, 3 September 2006, 16:36 GMT 17:36 UK
Driven by oil
Are we in denial about oil?

Stephen Leeb, founder of Leeb Capital Management Group and a long-time analyst on Wall Street, thinks so.

"We have a president that says we're addicted to oil, but doesn't say that we don't have enough oil to satisfy our addiction," he says. "He really hasn't alerted us to the fact that it's a true crisis."

Mr Leeb is not alone. Energy research consultant Daniel Yergin, of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, believes the concerns are widespread.

"Every day," he says, "the head of every major oil company wakes up focusing on how he is going to replace his reserves."

The crisis anticipated by these so-called petro-pessimists is one in which the world returns to the dark ages. At its most gloomy, the picture is one of civil unrest, world wars, and people dying of hypothermia in winter.

But then there are the oil-optimists - who believe we are entering the golden age of oil when higher prices and new innovations will see breakthroughs in recovery and discovery of oil.

They simply removed the two italicized paragraphs (my italics not theirs), apparently without changing anything else including the "last updated" line. Since they are the British Broadcasting Service, perhaps they did so in honor of the "memory hole", first invented by the British author George Orwell.

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Dragonfly41 on September 4, 2006 - 4:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, the memory hole.  Blink and you will miss it.  Good thing the quick eyes of TOD were on the job.
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bradshaw on September 4, 2006 - 5:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Did anyone pull off a copy of the article before it was changed?"

Google Cache =)

-C.

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step back on September 4, 2006 - 5:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Aha, The Ministry of Truth and History Revisionism has been cached with its pants down. Thanks. :-)
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bradshaw on September 4, 2006 - 7:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"cached with its pants down" -- Priceless =)

-C.

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Oil CEO on September 5, 2006 - 12:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Perhaps somebody can fill me in. Yergin is perhaps mis-characterized as a "petro-pessimist" by a clueless journalist, and it's evidence of a conspiracy?

I find it interesting that the focus here is on Yergin, not the term "petro-pessimist." Where the hell have I never heard that one before?

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Dave Cohen on September 4, 2006 - 1:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
When I didn't see the quote in the article, I assumed that it was in the broadcast. We need to see what happened.

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EnglishBosch on September 4, 2006 - 4:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The program itself is a pretty good peak oil primer - listen again if you have time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/drivenbyoil/pip/krpen/

Played this to my wife - I am finding it very hard to get her to understand the consequences of this.

I wouldn't worry about the Daniel Yergin thing - I don't think actually heard him on the program.

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step back on September 4, 2006 - 5:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I am finding it very hard to get her (wife) to understand the consequences of this (PO).

You're not alone. I've sort of given up trying to get through to my wife on this. When one steps out into the "real world" after having looked at (listened to) a PO clip, everything still looks "normal". Life continues as it always has. There are hardly any clues that something big and bad is rolling our way. The clerks at the stores still smile. The pumps at the gas station still pour forth the precious petrol. A huge cognitive disassociation develops.

Somebody has to be wrong. And it can't be all of "them" happy people out there. So it's got to be the one depressed you who has gone stark raving mad. Simple as that.

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Seadragon on September 4, 2006 - 6:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
How well put. Thank you.
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Rethin on September 4, 2006 - 8:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree, nicely put.

And there is really nothing you can do but just go one with your life.
As far as I can tell there isn't a practical way to prepare for the crash (soft or hard).

I'm just going along with the charade hoping the peak comes in twenty years, not last year.

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airdale on September 4, 2006 - 8:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My wife listened to me about Y2K but didn't really care even though I was working in the belly of the beast.

Now she refuses to live on the farm anymore and prefers the happy,shiny faces at the shopping malls in the 'burbs' which she has fled back to. She didn't want to hear what doom and gloom I was talking about now.

So ends a 42 year marriage. I am getting ready and she is in denial, well not exactly for she recently survived  two back to back coronaries (my health is excellent) and wants , I guess, to make her remaining years memorable and return to her images of how she thinks its supposed to be and to remain so.

She is not about to get out in the fields or gardens,pick peas nor can any produce or sun dry tomatoes. In a way I envy her I suppose. I would prefer the espressos, croissants, lazy shopping and running here and yon on a whim , blowing money like it was nothing,seeing all the latest movies and enjoying the fantasy. Comes the day you have to take a stand and either do something or STFU.  

I have always been a realist and her a romantic. It come to a fork in the road.....and so I took it(YogiBerra).  

I think this may become more common in the near future but
if its all a lot of BS? Well then I will buy that dreamed of airplane and spend all my time using all the fuel thats in such great supply and that we were all wrong about. It's probably be a single-seater anyway. I don't like backseat fliers anyway.

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roel on September 4, 2006 - 10:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
that is a truly full story
thank you

and rest assured, the bullshit is in the shopping malls,
not in the fields and gardens

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step back on September 4, 2006 - 11:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
AMPOD has at his site this depressing story of how collapse unfolds --not all at once but in a cruel series of layoffs and personal tragedies.

I fear tomorrow's news for many an Intel employee and their families.

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DickLawrence on September 5, 2006 - 12:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well this Intel employee, after 8 years of that and 22 years at Digital Equipment, decided that organizing the Boston ASPO-USA conference was more important than a steady paycheck.  The paycheck was only going to go another 3 months anyway, as my part of the company is being sold to the job was going to vaporize anyway.

After October, the interesting question: what to do next?  

  - Dick Lawrence
    ASPO-USA Boston Conference Coordinator

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treeman on September 5, 2006 - 2:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Dick,  Name is familiar. I spent 11 years at DEC leaving in 1982. They were good years, but not as interesting as now.
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Oil CEO on September 5, 2006 - 2:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Where is it? Who are the main speakers? Where is the website? Is it free? Is there gonna be food? Who's the band?
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airdale on September 5, 2006 - 7:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I spent 30 yrs at IBM. I left before its culture changed drastically and one was still rewarded with a Rolex(QTR Century Club)and dinners/well wishes at retirement but this was later altered instead to somewhat approaching a "we don't need you so goodbye and this guard will escort you to the door" scenario.

I miss it greatly but life goes on so I sold my small horse farm and moved back to my home county.

My wife and children though having never been exposed to 'real' rural life just could not encompass it in their life styles.

Mindset: Programmers and engineers saved the country's ass on Y2K. What did we get in return? Off shoring of jobs to other countries and out sourced!!! As a mainframe programmer my skillset became worthless. Thanks corpos.

What can we do for the upcoming redux? Nothing and they brought it on themselves.
We had a shot.
It missed or the finger slipped on the trigger.

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step back on September 5, 2006 - 11:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
In Engineering School (... an EE myself) they never taught us the laws of guaranteed obsolesence. They told us that the Laws of Nature are good forever. What a sham.

As for myself, I realized something was going in the wrong direction when the corp. I worked for refused to let me in on the "newer" 16-bit microprocessor designs. They told me I was too valuable to let go from ongoing 8-bit designs. (That was back in the 1970's. I realized it was time to shift out of engineering because I was going to be obsoleted out of the job no matter what I did. Engineers do not become more valuable as they gray.)

Any word yet on the scope of the Intel layoffs?

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TechGuy on September 5, 2006 - 5:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
>Mindset: Programmers and engineers saved the country's ass on Y2K. What did we get in return? Off shoring of jobs to other countries and out sourced!!! As a mainframe programmer my skillset became worthless. Thanks corpos.

What prevented you from adapting your career to persue new opportunities? Why didn't you update your skillset as technology changed? FWIW's I have changed my career directions three times since I graduated and have never been unemployeed nor have I been laid off. Who says you have to always remain as a mainframe programmer or even a programmer? Survival of the fittest doesn't just apply to natural selection it also applied to employment. Adapt to the changing environment and you won't have to worry about unemployement. The only trick to remain ahead of the curve, and when to see the corporate train wreck/iceburg ahead find a lifeboat and seek employment else where (doing something else if neccessary), just has you're doing to prepare for PO.

Good Luck to you.

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step back on September 5, 2006 - 7:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I have changed my career directions three times since I graduated and have never been unemployeed nor have I been laid off.

You are probably a relatively young pup. In-the-trenches engineering is a young man's game. Old dogs don't learn new tricks so quickly. Wait till you have gray hair and can't read the fine print any more.

The business cycle pendulum always swings. Sooner or later it's razor's edge is going to come swinging for you --no matter what great things you did for them lately.

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TechGuy on September 6, 2006 - 1:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
>You are probably a relatively young pup. In-the-trenches engineering is a young man's game. Old dogs don't learn new tricks so quickly. Wait till you have gray hair and can't read the fine print any more.

I am not so young but not so old as some of you. I have worked with a number of fellow engineers in thier late 50's and early 60's that have successfully adapted to the changing enviroment. For instance, one fellow I know well was a former EE who now does SAP migrations. This guy is always busy and has to turn now work all the time and he is 61.

The biggest challenge is finding an employeer willing to hire aging engineers is to do to health insurance costs or stigma over age. One way around this is to become a consultant engineer. Look for employment on projects instead of a full time positions. I will be the first to admit that age is a huge employment barrier, but it can be overcome with flexability, effort and persistence.

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326 comments on DrumBeat: September 4, 2006

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