303 comments on DrumBeat: September 6, 2006
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303 comments on DrumBeat: September 6, 2006
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The parabola method is not good at all at predicting URR before peak year. And we are not past peak year.
The strength of the method IMO is at predicting URR after peak year, and many areas of the world are in this situation. If you go to Graphoilogy you will see that there are 20 countries where the estimated URR has stabilized. There are 21 bad cases like the world case, and there are 9 where it is too early to say.
Of the four plots I have posted, the estimated US URR has stabilized for years, maybe increasing slightly. This tells you that the estimate is quite robust. Mexico has just stabilized at peak year. South Arabia is a very bad case, the estimate is highly unreliable. UK has stabilized recently.
My next project will be to compare HL with this method. I think that we rely to much in the HL, and it is important to have an alternative to compare.